Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[IceSpear]

Do we know what % of provisionals ended up being valid in the counties that have already counted them?

[NOVA Green]

Do we know what % of provisionals ended up being valid in the counties that have already counted them?

That's the challenging part, since most counties don't break down by provisionals on their updates, let alone the % that are valid, not to mention how many of the provisionals end up as Dem/Rep/Other ballots...

I have been downloading and saving the "Unprocessed Ballot Report" generally once or twice a day, as well as tracking county level updates, with the exception of my wedding anniversary last Wednesday when I lumped 6/15 and 6/16 into one column respectively on my tracking spreadsheet.

I'll try to go back a little later to see if we have any idea from more populous counties that have started counting provisionals, but yeah unfortunately there are some major gaps in California's reporting structures and standardized procedures, obviously designed specifically to annoy us election geeks, party operatives, Political Scientists, etc etc etc....

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Margin down to 9.5%:

Clinton 54.3% - 2,560,264
Sanders 44.8% - 2,113,277

Map of the completed counties per the reporting status page:

Light Blue: Clinton Plurality
Dark Blue: Clinton Majority
Light Green: Sanders Plurality
Dark Green: Sanders Majority

[NOVA Green]

Margin down to 9.5%:

Clinton 54.3% - 2,560,264
Sanders 44.8% - 2,113,277

Map of the completed counties per the reporting status page:

Light Blue: Clinton Plurality
Dark Blue: Clinton Majority
Light Green: Sanders Plurality
Dark Green: Sanders Majority

Hey--- where do you get a "clean map" of Cali that works with Paint.Net?

Best I found has major issues with Inyo and San Diego County (Assuming it is the Islands offshore)...

Please advise if you can....

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Margin down to 9.5%:

Clinton 54.3% - 2,560,264
Sanders 44.8% - 2,113,277

Map of the completed counties per the reporting status page:

Light Blue: Clinton Plurality
Dark Blue: Clinton Majority
Light Green: Sanders Plurality
Dark Green: Sanders Majority

Hey--- where do you get a "clean map" of Cali that works with Paint.Net?

Best I found has major issues with Inyo and San Diego County (Assuming it is the Islands offshore)...

Please advise if you can....

Here's one that still has county names: http://www.cde.ca.gov/sp/cd/re/images/cacountymap.gif it might help to save this one as something other than a .gif file.

Here's one without county names: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fa/California_counties_outline_map.svg/2000px-California_counties_outline_map.svg.png

[NOVA Green]

So another huge vote dump today, including a much larger size of Provisional ballots most significantly LA County, which is where over 40% of the outstanding Democratic Part ballots are located.

LA County- 38.9k Dem ballots, (56-44 Bernie) Including the rest of the Late VbMs and likely 20% of Provisionals. This is slightly higher than I expected.

Sacramento Co- 13.5k Dem ballots (51-49 Bernie). Looks to be almost all late VbM ballots, and Sacramento County is one of the few major urban counties where there has been marginal swing since Election Day (ED). Definitely a county to watch for Provisionals, since this is the first significant swing since we have seen from overall margins and % since Election Day.

Yolo County- 12.3k Dem ballots (59-41 Bernie). I think this is the final vote statement before certification and includes a total dump of all numbers, late VbMs, Provisionals, and disputed. So this will likely be moved to CCC status in the next few days.

Monterey Co- 9.6k Dem ballots (54-46 Bernie). Looks to be a mix of late VbMs and most Provisionals, and Montery County is starting to wind down. Still a +2.6% Swing from ED numbers is impressive and actually sounds much closer to what many of us were discussing prior to Election Day.

Riverside Co- 3.8k Dem ballots (44-56 Hillary). Appears to be all Provisonal ballots.... stands out as a major outlier. Same Day/EV 39-61 Hillary). Late VbMs were (47-53 Hillary) so it looks totally weird compared to any other county. Explanations as to why Riverside had so many Provisionals and why it would be the only county in Cali where Provisionals (Still a decent chunk outstanding) would significantly underperform the VBm results)?  It definitely does appear that percentage wise there were a much larger chunk of same-day votes tossed into a Provisional ballot bucket, in what are the most heavily Latino counties in SoCal. This isn't at all about the Dem Primary, but I've also been noticing some huge percentage of Provisional ballots in the Central Valley, in counties also dominated by Republican county officials, so got to call it out so everybody has eyeballs on these counties...

Santa Clara County- 7.3k Dem Ballots on (6/20 and 6/21). Sanata Clara County has been the best county in California when it comes to counting votes, outside of a handful of small rural counties.
These are all Provisional ballots (59.5-40.5 Bernie). This county has had one of the largest swings since ED (39.1-60.9 Hillary) to 99% including almost all provisionals (41.2-57.9 Hillary) for an overall 3% swing since ED.

Orange County- 6.1k Dem Ballots (60-40 Bernie). Pretty much all provisional ballots. Difficult to guess how many are remaining, but thinking there might be another 30k total and 20k Dem Provisional ballots out there.

San Diego- 5k Dem Ballots (66-34 Bernie). Still looks like there are a large chunk of provisionals out in SD.

San Francisco- 2.7k D Ballots (6/20 and 6/21). All Provisionals (59-41 Bernie). SF has a decent chance of beating Santa Clara County as the first major metro county in the state to complete their votes. Can't See Hillary winning this county by <7% at this point and think it will be closer to a 7.3% Hillary margin.

Alameda- Something weird going on here. No updates until 6/13 after which there were 22k VbMs and 42k Provisionals. County updates from ED on 6/13 was 22k Dem ballots, so am wondering where the rest of the ballots went, since there are major discrepancies in the actual updates vs results posted to the state.... I'm assuming this is likely a sync/update error, but if not wonder why the actual results don't match county numbers in an overwhelmingly Dem County.

Overall, looks like a pretty good vote dump for Bernie (Especially the numbers coming out of LA, San Diego, and OC), as well as relatively solid numbers from the Bay Area (With SF being somewhat weak on Provisionals.

Riverside County creates some major questions regarding overall performance for Bernie in the Inland Empire, and if this trend holds could be some issues closing the margins in Riverside/San Bernadino compared to OC/SD/Ventura and even LA County.

Anyways, just wanted to pass on the latest updates where we had over 100k Dem ballots counted, that will provide greater understanding on the total vote totals and margins.

[Eraserhead]

Great analysis, Oregon Progessive.

[NOVA Green]

Great analysis, Oregon Progessive.

Just tryin'...

Other weird thing are all these counties that have a 0 at the end of their provisional ballot update sheet, which statistically seems unlikely

These include many of the large metro counties that haven't yet starting provisional ballots (Contra Costa, El Dorado, Marin, San Diego, Santa Barbara, Santa Cruz, Stanlius, and Ventura.)

My thought is that it is normal on ED in Cali to accept provisional ballots and never really update the SoS to reflect actuals as a normal County Election Office practice.

Anyways, not necessarily a big deal, but if I were SoS in Cali it might be time to implement a standardized election platform and process, to make this giant hybrid system more transparent to the average voter.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Clinton 54.2% - 2,580,865
Sanders 44.9% - 2,135,718

[NOVA Green]

Relatively, low voting update today, but here's my estimation of where we are at with counties fully completing, counties with a chunk of VbMs, counties with a decent chunk of Provisional ballots, and counties mostly done counting provisionals.

So at his point, Bay Area is mostly done counting votes completely, much of rural NorCal is done (Excepting North Coast/Sonoma).

The terrain is rapidly shifting to SoCal and the Central Valley, with OC being the only Metro in SoCal that is almost done counting the ballots.

[NOVA Green]

Slow update night, so swing from Election Day to Present Cali Dem Results...

Dark Blue= +2.5% Bernie direct swing from ED (Ergo 47.5% Bernie would become 50% Bernie)
Cyan= +1.7% from ED.
Green= 1.0-1.7% swing from ED.
Pink/Purple- 0.1-0.9% Bernie swing from ED.
Red= No updates since ED.

Key items to note are the Metro counties that are mostly finished reporting (Check the previous post for those).

Santa Clara Co (39-61 Hillary ED) to (42-58 Hillary) with 99% counted
Orange Co (45-55 Hillary ED) to (47.5-52.5 Hillary) with 97%? counted


Other items to note are dramatic swings in the Central Coast and Central Valley, including in counties that Clinton won by large numbers on ED, and how that will play out in final margins with large numbers of Provisional ballots outstanding.

There does appear to be a direct correlation between counties that have reported a significant number of provisional ballots, and those with large numbers outstanding.

Vast majority of votes outstanding are in SoCal, so we should start to see updates rapidly by Monday at the latest, but at least this can provide some clues as to final margins, and how the "Late VbM" and "Provisional Ballot" scene is starting to play out in '16

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Margin stayed at 9.3% today, but Sanders took the lead in Tuolumne County. Also we now have six counties in CCC status. Updated Map:

[NOVA Green]

So still a relatively slow day in California Dem Primary results, like yesterday, so although there are a few interesting items to note am combining the 6/22 and 6/23 numbers, since I didn't provide much of an update yesterday.

So another ~45k Dem ballots counted on 6/22 and 6/23 (54-46 Bernie) mostly provisionals but a 13k Late VbM dump from San Mateo (44-56 Hillary) skewed the raw data regarding provisional ballots where results were (58-42 Bernie), so is not indicative of Provisional trending.

Key items to note:

1.) Tuolumne County flips (As Wulfric stated earlier) for a net +3.2% Bernie gain from ED. All Provisionals (68-32 Bernie). Mainly interesting for map purposes and estimation for how similar counties in the Sierra Nevada rural counties will close.

2.) Napa County dumps basically all Late Vote-by-Mails and Provisionals and swings 6.5% from Election Day for a final vote count. (39-61 Hillary ED) to (46-54 Hillary). This is utterly bizarre considering that the largest swings from ED to final county reporting is something like 3.5%. I have no explanation whatsoever, but it does seem to indicate that Sonoma County that has not yet reported any numbers since ED will not only flip, but also flip hard with Late VbMs and Provisionals combined.

3.) Bay Area (Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Solano) account for about 25% of total Democratic Party ballots and are almost completely done counting their ballots. Election Day numbers were (349k-478k or 42.2-57.8% Hillary). Since ED numbers are now (540k-681k and 44.2-55.8% Hillary). There still appear to be ~25k Provisional ballots out in Marin and Contra Costa that don't appear to have yet reported Provo numbers, but Obama did narrowly win the Bay Area in '08 Primary, so at the end of the day looks like maybe a +2.2% Bernie swing from ED in the Bay at the end of the day, and a key reason for the '16 Dem Primary in California not being significantly closer.

4.) Central Valley- Not tons of updates, but there is a trend since I have been noting since post ED results with Late VbMs trending heavily Bernie in counties where Hillary won by ~20% margins on ED. Fresno county provided the first large dump of Provisional ballots from a major county thus far and was (58-42 Bernie). This definitely indicates a major trend for remaining provisional ballots from not only Fresno Co, but also places like San Joaquin and Kern county, that haven't yet started counting provisional ballots.

5.) SoCal- Where to start. Almost 2.45 Mil Dem Ballots counted to Date so over 50% of the total.

Starters Election Day numbers in what is Metro LA/OC/SD ( LA, Orange, Riverside, San Bernadino, San Diego, Ventura) were (43-57 Hillary with 1.83 Milion votes cast).

We have minimal data thus far compared to the Bay Area, but currently it looks like there are 2.44 Mil Dem ballots counted (45-55 Hillary).

Note that the vast majority of ballots outstanding are provisionals, heavily from LA County as well as a decent chunk of votes remaining from San Diego County, and we should have a better idea when San Bernadino does a vote dump tomorrow, as well as Ventura and Orange being likely to finalize results.

Provisionals in LA County went (56-44 Bernie) in the first vote dump, and we can likely assume margins will be similar for the remainders of the 180k Provisionals (All parties but should be fairly heavily Dem ballots). San Diego County has been averaging ~60% Bernie on provisionals with likely an additional ~30k Dem ballots yet to be counted. OC is mostly done, but should trend heavily Bernie. Ventura still has some outstanding, and should provide close to a final update tomorrow. Riverside, trended heavily Bernie with Late VbMs but was a drop on the first provisional report.

Regardless, the theory that I posted that Bernie will do better in SoCal than Bay Area appears to be absolutely proven by the math, and additionally will be the key driver for final 2016 Dem Primary Margins...

Hard to believe, but at the end of the day, Bernie might end up performing better in LA County than in the entire Bay Area....

[Landslide Lyndon]

Alameda county final results.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Oakland for Sanders?!? WOW

[Ebsy]

Oakland for Sanders?!? WOW

Gentrification along with a young population.

[Holmes]

Yeah. Still surprising though. I was also expecting Berkeley to vote for Sanders by a higher margin.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Oakland for Sanders?!? WOW

Yup, the most diverse city in America. Hillary landslided rich white Piedmont next to it.

[Holmes]

In 2016, that would be Gaithersburg, according to a study by WalletHub, followed by Jersey City. A fun project would probably be to see who won each of these cities.

https://wallethub.com/edu/most-diverse-cities/12690/

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yeah. Still surprising though. I was also expecting Berkeley to vote for Sanders by a higher margin.

Most colleges are in finals or done completely by June 7. So no out of state/out of county students around, or everyone's too busy studying.

[NOVA Green]

Yeah. Still surprising though. I was also expecting Berkeley to vote for Sanders by a higher margin.

Most colleges are in finals or done completely by June 7. So no out of state/out of county students around, or everyone's too bust studying.

Also, might be a bit of the "town"/"gown"dichotomy that we have seen in some other college towns.

For example, look at the precinct results from Davis, where heavily student neighborhoods went overwhelmingly Sanders, but "professor" and middle-age/ middle-class public sector employees went Clinton.

Haven't checked out the precinct results from Benton County Oregon yet, but the overwhelmingly college town went from 70-30 Obama in '08 to 61-39 Sanders in '16 despite a large student population.

Plus, many students might well have voted by mail at their "home" (RE: parents address) rather than in their College town address.

Still the Berkeley numbers surprised me a bit....

[NOVA Green]

Alameda county final results.

Awesome!

Thanks for pulling this data.... decided to take a break from precinct/city level breakdown considering how long it takes to count the vote in Cali these days.

Not totally surprised by Oakland after we started to see votes trickling in from Alameda and figured Fremont, etc that are now basically extensions of Silicon Valley would vote similar to parts of Santa Clara County.

[NOVA Green]

Oakland for Sanders?!? WOW

Gentrification along with a young population.

Not sure about the gentrification theory, since I consider virtually all of the Bay Area to have been long since post-gentrification, meaning that it has become the least affordable Metro Area in the US, and I lived out in South Bay for a year for work in '12.

True, the African-American population of the city has been declining over the past few decades for multiple reasons, but still Oak-Town is still one of the most multi-ethnic cities in the US, and still has deep working-class roots tied to the Port of Oakland (ILWU), a strong activist tradition from the war in Vietnam, Civil Rights Movement, and more recently Pro-Immigration Reform activism from a rapidly growing Latino and Asian-American communities.

Still, would be extremely interested in looking at more detailed breakdown of voting patterns in various neighborhoods throughout the city with a compare/contrast against the 2008 numbers.

[Xing]

Age surely had something to do with it, but if you had told me Sanders would win Oakland and come within 4% in Alameda before the primary (and still lost CA by more than 8%), I would've said you were crazy.

Looks like it's down to 8.9%, thanks to some favorable ballots for Bernie from San Diego, L.A., and Ventura.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Clinton 54% - 2,625,017
Sanders 45.1% - 2,196,528

Honestly, I think that if CA had same-day registration and the media had decided to actually be neutral like they're supposed to and not call the race based on coercing supers (and shame on the supers who endorsed June 6 too), Bernie would have won CA by 1-3 points. Clinton would have the nomination still, but there would be that sour taste of the final day, eapecially because I think SD and perhaps NM would be narrowly Bernie without the AP's help, leaving her with only NJ.