Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[Boston Bread]

So Bernie probably lost whites in CA?

[NOVA Green]

Even if Bernie did better among Anglos than Latinos in the state as a whole, he definitely didn't in the Bay Area and Southern California.

Okay--- this might well be correct, unfortunately we don't have any exit polling data to work off of, so what do you see to make such a definitive statement?

Curious and not argumentative... just working towards the further pursuit of knowledge through data...

Hillary doing better in CD-14 and 18 than 17 and 19 for example. CD-13 obviously. In SoCal you have CD-34 vs CD-33. CD-46 as mentioned. CD 29 vs CD 30. Also note that I am not saying that Bernie did better than Hillary among Latinos in the Bay Area and SoCal, just that he didn't do worse. I am saying that it was a tie.

Also, I know we already talked about it. Just astounded Bernie actually ended up winning CD-46.

This is definitely the story of the 'Cali '16 Dem Primary, where in a majority-minority state and primary electorate (52% of '08 Dems in Exit polls self-identified as "minority", whatever the F**k that means in modern day America.... I'm assuming (and without exit polls that somewhere close to 55% of the '16 Cali Dem Primary electorate does not self-identify as "White" (Whatever the F**k that means).

The old California of "California Uber Alles" Brown/Reagan dichotomy  is long dead and gone, and a fading ghost of a fictional paradise of rose tinted glasses in OC back in the late '50s and early '60s.

The New California has come of age, and as the most multi-ethnic state in the union has clearly come of age to the point that even in the 2016 Democratic Primary race/ethnicity has become essentially a non-issue and primarily the Democratic electorate is voting more along economic class based lines rather than tribal politics...

Trump has obviously motivated a buttload of new voters to register Dem early, many of whom voted in the Dem Primary, and hopefully that battleship will continue to the GE regardless of the new voters in places like Long Beach, Fresno, Sacramento, and Modesto that voted for the first time in an election for Bernie, and this investment needs to continue to fuel increased Dem turnout in overwhelmingly Latino districts in Cali, where for too long, there has been a single party state.

"Si Se Puede"----

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Margin narrows to 8.5%.

Clinton - 53.8% - 2,664,312
Sanders - 45.3% - 2,246,936

It's pretty amazing that despite changes in candidate coalitions, the time the primary was held, and the just the passage of 8 years in general, CA basically did the exact same thing it did in 2008. 2008 was Clinton +8.3%, the margin this time does not differ from that by a statistically relevant amount. Talk about inelastic.

[Eraserhead]

The countdown to Bernie performing better than Obama '08 is on (in terms of the margin - he already has more votes than him).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Even if Bernie did better among Anglos than Latinos in the state as a whole, he definitely didn't in the Bay Area and Southern California.

Okay--- this might well be correct, unfortunately we don't have any exit polling data to work off of, so what do you see to make such a definitive statement?

Curious and not argumentative... just working towards the further pursuit of knowledge through data...

Hillary doing better in CD-14 and 18 than 17 and 19 for example. CD-13 obviously. In SoCal you have CD-34 vs CD-33. CD-46 as mentioned. CD 29 vs CD 30. Also note that I am not saying that Bernie did better than Hillary among Latinos in the Bay Area and SoCal, just that he didn't do worse. I am saying that it was a tie.

Also, I know we already talked about it. Just astounded Bernie actually ended up winning CD-46.

This is definitely the story of the 'Cali '16 Dem Primary, where in a majority-minority state and primary electorate (52% of '08 Dems in Exit polls self-identified as "minority", whatever the F**k that means in modern day America.... I'm assuming (and without exit polls that somewhere close to 55% of the '16 Cali Dem Primary electorate does not self-identify as "White" (Whatever the F**k that means).

The old California of "California Uber Alles" Brown/Reagan dichotomy  is long dead and gone, and a fading ghost of a fictional paradise of rose tinted glasses in OC back in the late '50s and early '60s.

The New California has come of age, and as the most multi-ethnic state in the union has clearly come of age to the point that even in the 2016 Democratic Primary race/ethnicity has become essentially a non-issue and primarily the Democratic electorate is voting more along economic class based lines rather than tribal politics...

Trump has obviously motivated a buttload of new voters to register Dem early, many of whom voted in the Dem Primary, and hopefully that battleship will continue to the GE regardless of the new voters in places like Long Beach, Fresno, Sacramento, and Modesto that voted for the first time in an election for Bernie, and this investment needs to continue to fuel increased Dem turnout in overwhelmingly Latino districts in Cali, where for too long, there has been a single party state.

"Si Se Puede"----

Yeah, the racial identities didn't go the way they were expected to in Alameda county.

Emeryville is only 40% Non-Hispanic white, and is 17% black, and despite not having very many college students managed to beat whiter Berkeley, which one would have assumed would have been the best city in the county. Oakland is the most diverse city in the country, and Bernie won it. Its neighbor Piedmont is mostly rich whites with a few Asians and is 1% black and 3% Hispanic, and it was Hillary's best city in the county by a landslide.


 

[Landslide Lyndon]

The countdown to Bernie performing better than Obama '08 is on (in terms of the margin - he already has more votes than him).

Of course the difference is that Obama barely campaigned in California in 2008 while Sanders became almost a permanent resident for a month.

[Sbane]

Bernie actually won Oakland! That is pretty stunning. I called it that Bernie didn't do well in Alameda County solely due to Berkeley. If anything the margin in Berkeley was underwhelming.

[Gass3268]

I see that Clinton dipped below 55% in Los Angeles County. I'll be very interested in seeing a precinct map there once all the votes are counted.

Waiting a new county by county report from NOVA Green!

[Holmes]

I remember there being a lot of Sanders people with signs on the overpasses on the I-80 in Emeryville, near the Bay Bridge. And I did see that Sanders was in the city quite often. I guess it shows in the results.

[NOVA Green]

So Bernie probably lost whites in CA?

It looks like the jury is still out, pending more detailed precinct level analysis....

What does seem clear is that Clinton significantly under-performed her '08 numbers among Latino voters throughout the state, lost some ground among Asian-American voters in the Bay Area, gained significantly among upper-income Anglos in Bay Area and LA versus '08 numbers, won the African-American vote in Bay Area, Sacramento, and Metro LA, and lost some ground among working and lower-middle class Anglos in rural and small-town NorCal and Sierra Nevada regions. It does also appear that she performed significantly better than she did among LGBT voters in the Bay Area from '08 to '16, but the only data point without exit polling, is the precinct level data from the Castro District in the SFC where Obama won in '08 and was Hillary's 2nd best neighborhood in the City in '16.

So at this point, without some final election precinct numbers and deep dive into county-by-county, city-by-city, it will be difficult to definitively assess vote breakdown by ethnic self-identification, considering the giant rainbow quilt that is California of the 2010s, and will likely be a "crowd-sourcing" endeavor of final precinct level data, combined with GIS maps, census tract level data, and data modelling.

I think we were still mining the data from the '08 Dem primary by county precinct level data well into March 2009 to try to understand the respective Obama/Hillary California coalitions, but at least then we did have an exit poll to give us a reference point!

Much is made of race/ethnicity whenever California politics are discussed, since obviously as the future model of pluralistic and multi-ethnic America, it is easy to look at elections through that prism. In the 2008 Democratic Primary the media narrative focused heavily on that theme, for obvious reasons, as well as the historic nature of the Obama/Clinton contest, and I personally believe that was overshadowed in that narrative in the context of the California primary was that many upper middle-class Anglos backed Obama heavily on the basis of the Iraq War, rather than the more pragmatic "economics" oriented theme of the Hillary campaign that help frame the contrast and coalitions of the two respective candidates.

The 2016 Democratic Primary was more of a contrast of economic policy, rather than foreign policy, so the California Democratic electorate split more along "social/economic class" and "age". And sure, there was likely a bit of a gender gap as well in '16, as there was in '08, but since men and women generally live roughly 51-49 Female in most neighborhoods and cities, this is a variable that has less overall significance in an overwhelmingly Democratic state like California, than in many other parts of the country, where the female share of the Democratic electorate is significantly larger than in Cali.

Honestly wouldn't be surprised and Sbane might well be right, that Latinos and Anglos voted about the same in Bay Area and SoCal overall, and that Hillary won by similar margins among the three largest ethnic groups in Cali, including Asian-Americans, and also won 60-40 of the African-American vote in the Bay Area (Only have Tenderloin, and Bayview-Hunterspoint, and overall Oakland numbers to base this on) and a bit higher in SoCal (Limited data but Hillary won by impressive margins in heavily AA neighborhoods in Compton and North Long Beach).

[Fusionmunster]

So Bernie probably lost whites in CA?

It does also appear that she performed significantly better than she did among LGBT voters in the Bay Area from '08 to '16, but the only data point without exit polling, is the precinct level data from the Castro District in the SFC where Obama won in '08 and was Hillary's 2nd best neighborhood in the City in '16.

This pleases me greatly.

[NOVA Green]

So Bernie probably lost whites in CA?

It does also appear that she performed significantly better than she did among LGBT voters in the Bay Area from '08 to '16, but the only data point without exit polling, is the precinct level data from the Castro District in the SFC where Obama won in '08 and was Hillary's 2nd best neighborhood in the City in '16.

This pleases me greatly.

Cool--- Happy you like the results from a community that obviously has a special place in the heart of the not only LGBT America (Next to lower Eastside Manhatten) as an epicenter for liberation, self-determination, and struggle for true equality in America, but also for all Americans whose lives have been touched deeply and personally for decades as a result of that struggle for social justice and equality.

Personally for me, the Castro is not only one of my favorite neighborhoods in the City, but also one of the friendliest, and most welcoming parts of the City. Although SF has become increasingly gentrified and impersonal since I first visited in 1989 and spent much time in subsequent years, at a time where political demonstrations were commonplace, the Castro really is the "heart of the City", and every time driving or taking a trolley up Telegraph Avenue and getting off at Duboce Triangle, and seeing the giant rainbow flag flying, and even when I was living in South Bay in 2012 taking CalTrain up for a weekend, was a welcome relief from an extremely stressful job scene.

Now, my data is based upon SFC precinct level results that include three "distinct" neighborhoods that are widely defined as part of the Castro District (Duboce Triangle, Corona Heights, Eureka Valley/ Dolores Heights). I did run the numbers to include later provisional ballots, and it still appears that Hillary still won the Castro District by 63-37 or 62-38 despite dropping a few points from Early Voting/Ed numbers compared to final results.

2008 Cali Dem Primary exit polls show Hillary winning the LGBT vote 62-32 Statewide, although she narrowly lost the Castro District in '08 and won by 20+ Points in '16.

Now, we can't assume LGBT voting habits in Cali based upon one neighborhood of one city, but in the absence of any exit polling (And am thinking Cali was the only Dem Primary in '08 where this question was asked and not asked anywhere in '16) , do we have any other neighborhoods/precincts, for example in certain parts of West LA, Sac, and Oakland, that could indicate a dramatic '08 to '16 swing towards Hillary among LGBT Californians?

Elections are always won and lost on the margins, so if Hillary lost the Castro in '08 to Obama when she was beating Obama by 30 points in Cali in '08 among LGBT exit polls statewide, was there a huge swing outside of one particular heavily LGBT neighborhood that moved the needle a point or two?

[Xing]

Hillary's lead is at 8.3% right now, exactly the same as it was in 2008. Looks like it'll end up a bit below that in the end. Ventura is surprisingly close (51.2-47.9), I'm wondering if Sanders might actually end up winning that county in the end...

[NOVA Green]

Ok... new update, and first since late Friday when we had a major vote dump.

77.3k New Dem ballots since late Friday 46k-31k Bernie (59-41 Bernie)/

1.) LA County- 58.1 Dem Ballots almost all provisionals (57.4-42.6 Bernie).

What is particularly interesting is not the margin, which has been relatively consistently (57-43 Bernie) since they first started counting provisionals on 6/21, but that based upon the official outstanding "uncounted ballot report", the LA Count Election department website, it appears that almost 90% of the provisional ballots counted in the latest update are valid Dem Party ballots.

Now I am not convinced that at the end of the day the remaining ~110k ballots will be 90% valid Dem, but needless to say if the vast majority of outstanding LA County ballots are valid D and continue the 57-43 Bernie number, that will impact not only the LA County total numbers, but also a 0.1% or two off of statewide margins. *If* that trend continues, which I believe the latest vote is not representative of we could potentially see only a (45.5-54.5% Hillary) win in LA County which will swing statewide margins.

2.) Monterey County- 6k (56-44 Bernie) since last update. There aren't very many votes remaining here, but it appears that at the end of the day Hillary's margins will be a bit lower than in '08 over Obama.

3.) San Mateo County- 3.4k (90-10 Bernie). I have no real explanation for these results from one of Hillary's strongest counties in the state that it appears that they might be providing updates upon municipality precinct orders, otherwise it make absolutely no sense that you could provisional results even more Hillary than ED numbers among provisionals, and then a few days later have such an extreme contrast that hasn't been seen among provisional votes even in the strongest Bernie counties in the state. Still there are a few k votes out there, and giant wild card based upon the extremely weird variance thus far.

4.) Solano County- 2.5k Dem Provisonal ballots (62-38 Bernie). Not a county on the radar as the unprocessed ballot report indicated there were no more outstanding ballots.

5.) San Diego County- 2.2k Dem Provisional ballots (66-34 Bernie). Still a ton of provisionals out of SD County, although it appears that <55% are valid Dem Party ballots.

6.) Ventura County- 1.8k Dem ballots (66-34 Bernie) and I think the county is pretty much done counting provisionals.

7.) SLO- 1.2k Dem Provisonal ballots (71-29 Bernie). Not much out there, but provisional trend indicates there will some drip on the margins.

8.) Riverside- 1.2k Dem Provisional ballots (67-33 Bernie). There are actually a decent chunk of provisional ballots from Riverside and appear heavily valid Dem ballots. Obviously these are significant provisional margins in terms of overall county percentage, as well as Democratic votes outstanding.

9.) Imperial- 1k Dem Provisional ballots (43-57 Hillary). Her strongest county in the state in both '08 and '16 and also an indication of her dramatic collapse in support among rural Latinos between '08 and '16, of which there are even better examples in the South Central Valley.

So far now, I will hold at my 7.5% Hillary win prediction, but there are still some variables in LA County, as well as counties that have not updated results since Election Day that could change that.

[Tender Branson]

What ?

Hillary was at 60-40 or something in CA on election night and could end at only 53-46 ?

There must have been a ton of ballots left to be counted ...

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What ?

Hillary was at 60-40 or something in CA on election night and could end at only 53-46 ?

There must have been a ton of ballots left to be counted ...

She was at 59-40 with about half of the election night vote in, which is about when everyone went to bed. Around Noon ET the next day, she was at 56-43, with 100% of precincts "partially reporting". But the reality is this only included the election day in-person vote and mail in ballots received before election day. Mail in ballots received on election day or afterward (the only rule is the ballots have to be "postmarked" on election day), plus any provisionals, continue to be counted through July 8. That's what narrowed the margin from 56-43 to (likely) 53-46 (with rounding of course).

[IceSpear]

What ?

Hillary was at 60-40 or something in CA on election night and could end at only 53-46 ?

There must have been a ton of ballots left to be counted ...

Yes, there were millions left to count after election night I believe.

Imagine if CA was decisive in the primary, or even worse, in the general election. I think their system is kind of ridiculous honestly. I know it's the most populous state, but does it REALLY take an entire month to count all the ballots?

[NOVA Green]

What ?

Hillary was at 60-40 or something in CA on election night and could end at only 53-46 ?

There must have been a ton of ballots left to be counted ...

Sure looks to be close to the case...

The really weird thing, while you have been chillin' in Austria, is that it looks like Bernie will end up performing better in LA County, than the entire Bay Area combined.....

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What ?

Hillary was at 60-40 or something in CA on election night and could end at only 53-46 ?

There must have been a ton of ballots left to be counted ...

Yes, there were millions left to count after election night I believe.

Imagine if CA was decisive in the primary, or even worse, in the general election. I think their system is kind of ridiculous honestly. I know it's the most populous state, but does it REALLY take an entire month to count all the ballots?

Yeah. In an alternate universe where Bernie was the leader in pledged delegates and Hillary needed a full 53% of the vote to catch up among pledged delegates, we would literally be on pins and needles even now.

[Eraserhead]

The countdown to Bernie performing better than Obama '08 is on (in terms of the margin - he already has more votes than him).

Of course the difference is that Obama barely campaigned in California in 2008 while Sanders became almost a permanent resident for a month.

That's a bit of an exaggeration. Plus, the '08 race was in the heat of that primary while this one happened after the race was basically over with.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The countdown to Bernie performing better than Obama '08 is on (in terms of the margin - he already has more votes than him).

Of course the difference is that Obama barely campaigned in California in 2008 while Sanders became almost a permanent resident for a month.

That's a bit of an exaggeration. Plus, the '08 race was in the heat of that primary while this one happened after the race was basically over with.

Where is the exaggeration? Obama held 2 events in California in 2008 while Sanders literally didn't set foot out of the state the month before the primary. I remember Ed Kilgore jokingly saying that a casual observer might have thought he was running for governor.

As for the primary being over, go tell that to the rabid Sanders supporters or the media who turned the contest into Hillary's Alamo breathlessly reporting all those polls that showed a 2 point race.

[Holmes]

If he spent a decent amount of time in New Mexico or eastern South Dakota, he probably could've won those states.

[Eraserhead]

The countdown to Bernie performing better than Obama '08 is on (in terms of the margin - he already has more votes than him).

Of course the difference is that Obama barely campaigned in California in 2008 while Sanders became almost a permanent resident for a month.

That's a bit of an exaggeration. Plus, the '08 race was in the heat of that primary while this one happened after the race was basically over with.

Where is the exaggeration? Obama held 2 events in California in 2008 while Sanders literally didn't set foot out of the state the month before the primary. I remember Ed Kilgore jokingly saying that a casual observer might have thought he was running for governor.

As for the primary being over, go tell that to the rabid Sanders supporters or the media who turned the contest into Hillary's Alamo breathlessly reporting all those polls that showed a 2 point race.

Except that's a false statement.

[Eraserhead]

If he spent a decent amount of time in New Mexico or eastern South Dakota, he probably could've won those states.

Quite possibly. He did campaign a bit in both of them though.

Other than in Michigan, Bernie just never seemed to have luck on his side in the close ones.

[Eraserhead]

The countdown to Bernie performing better than Obama '08 is on (in terms of the margin - he already has more votes than him).

Of course the difference is that Obama barely campaigned in California in 2008 while Sanders became almost a permanent resident for a month.

That's a bit of an exaggeration. Plus, the '08 race was in the heat of that primary while this one happened after the race was basically over with.

Where is the exaggeration? Obama held 2 events in California in 2008 while Sanders literally didn't set foot out of the state the month before the primary. I remember Ed Kilgore jokingly saying that a casual observer might have thought he was running for governor.

As for the primary being over, go tell that to the rabid Sanders supporters or the media who turned the contest into Hillary's Alamo breathlessly reporting all those polls that showed a 2 point race.

Except that's a false statement.

What, did he went to Vermont for fresh clothes?

He literally campaigned in several other states during the course of that month as well but I'm sure you already know that.