Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Are all the other states done counting their ballots?  Judging by how everyone seems focused on California. 

The other states were done for all practical purposes by the morning after the election. Because CA is a a mail-in state and had such a large number of provisionals, a lot of votes come in long after the election, just like OR/WA. 

[NOVA Green]

Are all the other states done counting their ballots?  Judging by how everyone seems focused on California. 

Ok--- haven;t been following the other states since Election Day, but I would imagine that at most there are 500 remaining ballots not yet counted and certified combined in New Mexico. Montana, and South Dakota, versus hundreds of thousands in Cali, so would imagine that at most there might be a 0.1% shift in margins in those states with no chance of a even a county flip so....

Haven't been following NJ too closely, and I'm sure there is interesting shifts between ED and today, but states that count basically 99% of their votes on election day, are usually less interesting to follow than states that still have over 50% of the vote out after election day and it takes a month to finally count the votes.

[NOVA Green]

Getting into the end-zone and a bunch of counties are dumping final results and trying to complete counting prior to the Holiday Weekend and make sure they are keeping track to certify on or before 7/7/16 as per state law...

I didn't update yesterday since there were only a handful of counties reporting but the current update is"

1.) LA County- 28.7k Dem Ballots (60-40 Bernie). According to the LA County website there are approximately 62k total ballots remaining.... so if 37k are valid Dem ballots it should break down about (21-16k Bernie) using a conservative estimate.

2.) San Diego County- 11.1k Dem Ballots (66-34 Bernie). Valid Dem Provisionals are slightly lower than my estimate, but overall percentage and total vote margins well exceed estimates, with about 15k provisionals yet to be counted.

3.) Mendocino-11k Dem Late VbMs and provisionals (70-30 Bernie). Total Dem votes and margins exceeded forecast and will need to revise Humboldt, Lake and Sonoma County estimated numbers.

4.) Sacramento- 9.3k Dem Ballots (65-35 Bernie). Well exceeds forecast model for final provisional ballots, and could bode extremely well for Placer County final results.

5.) San Joaquin- 5.7k Dem ballots (57-43 Bernie). Overall % as valid dem provisionals slightly lower than expected, but slightly exceeded on margins.

6.) Stanislaus- 4.8k Dem Ballots (67-33 Bernie). Raw Dem votes and margins exceeded forecast.

7.) Kern- 3.9k Dem Ballots (62-38 Bernie). Significantly exceeded forecast margin.

8.) Marin- 3.8k Dem Ballots (56-44 Bernie). Honestly I thought Marin was done, as they haven't been the best county in the state to keep current, so basically is a shift on the margins more than anything.

9.) Monterey/Napa/SLO- Basically close out with about 4k Dem votes and all balanced out were roughly 50-50.

Will need to review data further to assess margin calls, and we should have another chunk of votes tomorrow as California counties scramble to try to get their numbers close to final before the Holiday Weekend.

[Minnesota Mike]

Bottom line Bernie is still going to lose by a significant margin and the big picture does not change at all.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Bottom line Bernie is still going to lose by a significant margin and the big picture does not change at all.

He might make the county map in CA greener. But yeah. At this point, it's a matter of maybe 10 delegates at the most.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Notable and/or Competitive (at least for 2nd place) congressional races:

CA-7: Ami Bera (D) is leading Scott Jones(R) by 8%. Bera looks pretty safe.

CA-8: We are on the verge of an R vs. R contest here, current results show incumbent Paul Cook(R) with 49,789 votes, Rita Ramirez (D) with 25,716 votes, and Tim Donnelly (R) with 24,420 votes. Some of you may remember that Donnelly ran for governor in 2014 but lost the 2nd ballot slot to Kashkari. Cook and Donnelly combine for 63% of the vote though, so the seat is Safe R regardless of whether Ramirez makes the general.

CA-10: Denham under 50%.....

CA-12: Nancy Pelosi's district. On election night it looked like she would face Bob Miller(R), but now Preston Picus (I) has 16,633 votes to Miller's 16,583. Barry Hermanson(G) has 14,289. San Francisco County is listed as only being done counting for the presidential, not for downballot, so this could still change. Every vote counts folks - at least this time. Pelosi's safe in November.

CA-17: What was a virtual tie on election night has now almost reached a full two point lead for Ro Khanna (D) over Mike Honda(D). With both D's under 40% and the third Democrat in the contest at just 4%, the November outcome will depend on what GOP voters do.

CA-21: Valadao has dropped all the way from 59% to 54% during the late ballot counting. He's probably not actually beatable, but we'll see.

CA-25: Knight under 50%.....

CA-26: Julia Brownley(D) had close races in 2012 and 2014, but this time she's fine - she won the primary 64-36.

CA-29 (all candidates are democrats): Richard Alarcon is still winning in the race to lose to Tony Cardenas, but not by a lot. Alarcon has 12,293 votes to Joseph Shammas's 10,757 and Benny Bernal's 9,916.

CA-31: The Democrats combine for only 54%. Keep an eye on this district in 2018.

CA-32: Grace Napolitano(D) is still waiting to find out whether she'll face a Democrat or a Republican. Roger Hernandez (D) has 26,170 votes to Gordon Fisher's(R) 25,471. This district isn't winnable for republicans, but considering Napolitano barely got a majority in the jungle, it is *potentially* a race to watch if it is D vs. D.

CA-36: Raul Ruiz(D) is up 58-32. He's not losing.

CA-37: Chris Wiggins(D) has 15,133 votes to Shariff Hasan's(R) 13,010 in the race to lose to Karen Bass(D).

CA-49: Late Ballots haven't changed election night's surprising outcome - Darrell Issa(R) is still up only 51-45.

CA-52: Scott Peters (D) is safe with his amazing 59% of the vote.

CA-53: Two republicans are battling over the right to lose to Susan Davis (D). James Veltmeyer has 24,758 votes to Jim Ash's 24,404.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Clinton 53.4% - 2,710,258
Sanders 45.7% - 2,321,852

#marginunder400k




The remaining counties will be hard at work next week, with at least 287,000 votes still to be reported.

[Eraserhead]

I'll predict a final margin of 6.9%.

[Ebsy]

Really glad to see that the autism research grants have been paying impressive dividends.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I could potentially see El Dorado and Sutter counties flipping, assuming the unprocessed ballot report is current, and it looks like Sutter classified most provisionals as "other" for some weird reason.

Per the SoS website, El Dorado has flipped to Bernie.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ventura finishes at 51.2-47.9 Clinton.

With El Dorado now Bernie, really hoping Placer flips for aesthetic reasons.

[NOVA Green]

Bottom line Bernie is still going to lose by a significant margin and the big picture does not change at all.

He might make the county map in CA greener. But yeah. At this point, it's a matter of maybe 10 delegates at the most.

These are both true statements, and yes the primary season is over and Hillary won Cali by a decent margin...

Still, I enjoy following and watching the final votes trickle in, and once we start getting real final county precinct level numbers, it will be interesting to look at the similarities and differences between the Obama/Hillary '08 electoral coalitions and Bernie/Hillary '16 electoral coalitions in the largest and arguably the most solidly Democratic State in the Union.

I'm actually a little surprised we haven't seen more discussions of many other primary states, where all votes have been counted, results certified, precinct level data is available, and there could be detailed maps showing the strength and weaknesses of the Hillary coalition in GE swing states in particular.

I seem to recall in '08 there were multiple detailed threads and maps for various states and counties that dissected Dem Primary data into a visual format. Maybe it's because Alcon doesn't post here as often anymore...

[NOVA Green]

Clinton 53.4% - 2,710,258
Sanders 45.7% - 2,321,852

#marginunder400k




The remaining counties will be hard at work next week, with at least 287,000 votes still to be reported.

Ok.... getting down to the wire with an additional 20k Dem ballots counted yesterday, not yet updated in the official numbers (Contra Costa, Nevada, Santa Barbara, Santa Cruz, and Sutter), and likely Riverside Counties update late last night in the system not included in your numbers above...

Currently looking like (Unofficial but based on updated official counties numbers):

Clinton: 53.3% -  2,719,340
Sanders: 45.8% - 2,339,947

Also, based upon LA County finalizing results with what appears to be most likely a gap between their official press releases for outstanding ballots where there were ~62k Total stated remaining after the last update on 6/29 and only 12.2k Valid Dem ballots included in the official certified update, the final margin call looks to be around the followin:

Total '16 Dem Primary Ballots, including the misc fringe people (5.18 Million) and somewhere right around (46-53.1% Hillary).

We will see if this holds, but looks like you were right on the money to within a 0.1% or so when you posted this on 6/21 (Without rounding):

I think things will round to 53-46 Clinton at the end.

[NOVA Green]

At the risk of being diagnosed as "autistic" by a fellow Red avatar who apparently enjoys doing a "Seagull" (Check out Urban Dictionary as needed) here is where the remaining California outstanding votes exist.

There might be a few hundred more in SC, San Mateo, and possibly Sutter, but basically almost all counties are completely done and either certified or in process.

Riverside is supposed to update at 8 PM PST tonight, and I thought SD County was supposed to finalize today, (But we'll see)

[Eraserhead]

At the risk of being diagnosed as "autistic" by a fellow Red avatar who apparently enjoys doing a "Seagull" (Check out Urban Dictionary as needed) here is where the remaining California outstanding votes exist.

[politicallefty]

With El Dorado now Bernie, really hoping Placer flips for aesthetic reasons.

No way does that happen, even with that amount of outstanding ballots. Placer County is to Sacramento County as Orange County is to Los Angeles County. El Dorado is a Foothills county, while Placer is dominated by the more affluent suburbs and exurbs of Sacramento. If you look at the Sacramento County results, you'd see that Hillary ran stronger against Bernie in CA-07 than in CA-06 (for those that don't know, CA-06 is based in the city of Sacramento while CA-07 covers the suburban areas of Sacramento County).

[NOVA Green]

So my inner autism must be speaking, but here is where the final Cali Dem primary county margin results are, with the overwhelming majority of counties reporting, excepting (3) counties that haven't reported since Election Day (ED) and margins could easily change with <50% of the vote counted.

So obviously key items to note are Hillary's strength/dominance  in the Bay Area, and Bernie's relative strength in SoCal (Orange/SD/Ventura) as well as decent performance in LA County

[Boston Bread]

Your maps would look better if you reduce the colour scheme to various shades of 2 colours like the maps on Atlas.
ie.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^^ Toloumne and El Dorado are now Bernie. SOS is more up to date than Atlas.

The SOS total also does not update again until Tuesday. So anything reported locally is technically unofficial until then.

[Boston Bread]

^^ Toloumne and El Dorado are now Bernie. SOS is more up to date than Atlas.

The SOS total also does not update again until Tuesday. So anything reported locally is technically unofficial until then.

I realize that Atlas is not up to date, I was trying to show to NOVA green that having 9 colours is too much.

[NOVA Green]

Your maps would look better if you reduce the colour scheme to various shades of 2 colours like the maps on Atlas.
ie.

But, but, but.... how do I show the margins...

My thought is the story is less about which candidate wins which county, but more about *who wins what by how much*

So I get it that the graphics are a bit confusing, hard to read, and not standard Atlas colors, but still how to tell a story visually with only two paint colors???

So need to drop to two colors and two shades of each and lose tons of detail in the process? There should be at least three shades/tones to at least indicate significant movement/margins?

Totally agreed my maps tend to be a bit of an eyesore, and is my first election posting county maps (Red and Green tend to be preferred in two candidate elections), so will try to work within a more conventional mapping scenario, for ease of data communication and make for a quick easy overview.

btw: Thanks for the tip and will need to play around a little more with Paint.Net to try to make it easier to read for everyone, and still provide data in a visual format, instead of trying to reinvent the wheel and make things confusing for everyone trying to decipher my own coding.

[Boston Bread]

^ NOVA, you can adjust the shade based on the margin.
Dark green = big Sanders win
Light green = small Sanders win
You can see that in the map I posted as well, the Sanders landslide counties are a darker shade of green. Although Atlas maps are made based on how much % the winning candidate got, not the margin.

With this you can very quickly make out 1) who won, and 2) the margin, without referring to the legend every time.

[Hnv1]

Did Clinton hold on to Calaveras county? it would really ruin the map

BTW why is Humboldt county so left wing? It's pretty rural but Dems dominate it and Greens usually have 5% there in generals

[/]

So what is the current county map?

[Sbane]

Did Clinton hold on to Calaveras county? it would really ruin the map

BTW why is Humboldt county so left wing? It's pretty rural but Dems dominate it and Greens usually have 5% there in generals

Hippies, lots of Marijuana cultivation etc.