Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[NOVA Green]

The interesting question lost in all of this is: will LA-area Asians split their Bernie/Hillary vote differently from Silicon Valley-area Asians? If so, what will be the differences?

Well we don't have tons of data to forecast, and unfortunately we won't really know until precinct level results are published, so far as I can tell.

However it is worth noting that the early voting numbers from California's 17th congressional district that is in the heart of Silicon Valley (Which is 50% Asian-American) are 48.7-51.3 Bernie-Hillary which includes cities like Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Santa Clara, and Milipitas that Hillary won from 10-15 points in 2008 and the later by over 2:1.

Needless to say, this is potentially a very positive sign for Bernie in the South Bay and Santa Clara County, and combined with early vote polls from the 19th Congressional district that covers most of San Jose (45-55 Clinton) that Clinton won by 20 points in 2008 could well indicate a significant upset in the largest population center in the region.

In SF, Hillary won a large majority of Asian-American precincts in the City in 2008, so it will definitely be interesting to see if there is a swing among the heavily Chinese-American vote from '08 to '16. The early voting from the bulk of the city (Excluding South SF and Daly City) has a 13 point Hillary lead, although this doesn't really give us much of an idea since the electoral coalitions in the City will be a bit different from '08.

Not so sure about '08 in SoCal and the sample sizes of early votes by CDs are much smaller and the Asian-American population is split over multiple CDs making it more difficult to discern any potential clues for Today.

[NOVA Green]

https://public.tableau.com/profile/paulmitche11#!/vizhome/CapitolWeeklyDemPresidentialPrimaryAVExitPoll/USDEMPRIM

An exit poll of 16,000 respondents conducted in CA shows that Clinton slightly leads Sanders by 8 points (54-46) among absentee voters who voted by mail sometime before June 4th. And according to a Field estimate, over 60% of these absentee voters will make up the electorate in tonight's primary.

Interestingly enough, Clinton is tied with Sanders among early Latino voters at 50-50. I expected it to be close in CA considering Latino voters here are disproportionately younger.

Overall, it's looking more and more like a tight race. Back in 2008, Hillary was ahead in absentee voting exit polls by 23 points in CA.

It's a really interesting poll, and I am glad they did it, as it actually breaks down numbers by CD, which   provides some potentially useful data, as well as some "junk data" for CD's with extremely low numbers of respondents, like the Southern Central Valley and many parts of LA County, Orange, and the Inland Empire.

I still have some questions regarding the methodology when it comes to sampling non-native English-language speakers and from what I understand is an "email only" based poll, but the early vote data looks quite favorable for Bernie in rural NorCal, much of the Bay Area (South Bay and flatlands of East Bay), The "Sac"with some offsets in the Peminsula around places like Walnut Creek and Concord.

San Diego county looks pretty good for Hillary 40-60 based upon these early voting consolidated numbers, and of the five CDs that include predominately SD County, Bernie is doing best around Escondido/ Fallbrook/ San Marcos and getting slaughtered in the city of San Diego and Chula Vista. Coastal North County 44-56 Clinton, but has been trending Bernie since they updated their results, so could well flip with later ballots, including younger voters and military voters associated with Camp Pendleton.

 

[NOVA Green]

https://public.tableau.com/profile/paulmitche11#!/vizhome/CapitolWeeklyDemPresidentialPrimaryAVExitPoll/USDEMPRIM

An exit poll of 16,000 respondents conducted in CA shows that Clinton slightly leads Sanders by 8 points (54-46) among absentee voters who voted by mail sometime before June 4th. And according to a Field estimate, over 60% of these absentee voters will make up the electorate in tonight's primary.

Interestingly enough, Clinton is tied with Sanders among early Latino voters at 50-50. I expected it to be close in CA considering Latino voters here are disproportionately younger.

Overall, it's looking more and more like a tight race. Back in 2008, Hillary was ahead in absentee voting exit polls by 23 points in CA.

Wow, she might actually lose.

Doubt it. Its looking like same day turnout hasnt been that strong.

Well the problem is that if the election is anywhere close, there's a good chance that we won't know for a few days or even possibly longer. I think California allows all ballots received through the mail by Thursday (Or is it Friday?) to be counted. In a heavily VbM state, this means that there is a large number of individuals that wait until the day of the election and then put their ballots in the mailbox...

I love vote-by-mail, but find it extremely frustrating when it comes to the pace of vote counting.... I think Oregon has "final" but non certified numbers and our election was three weeks ago!

[NOVA Green]

Merkley was just on MSNBC saying the winner of the pledged delegates/popular vote is the nominee, and that superdelegates should be abolished.

Freedom Fighter from Oregon.

Proud to have him as my Senator.

Unfortunately, these rules won't change until 2020 at the earliest and quite likely much longer, and "The Pledge" that was sent out in late Summer and "Super-banking Super-Delegates" before a single vote had been cast, not only effectively locked in the Nomination by creating a perception of invincibility, decreased debate within the party regarding many major issues, and is likely part of the reason that "Honest Joe" Biden didn't step into the race.

[NOVA Green]

If Hillary really is only leading the early vote by 8, that does give me pause. She probably still wins, but it could be quite tight.

Its actually 9 points.......yeah your point still stands.

It's actually 7.4% unless they adjusted within the past hour (7,575 Bernie- 8,770 based upon the Noon Update)  but they "weigh the polls" to adjust for Demographics, whatever the "F" that means.

[NOVA Green]

If Hillary really is only leading the early vote by 8, that does give me pause. She probably still wins, but it could be quite tight.

Its actually 9 points.......yeah your point still stands.

It's actually 7.4% unless they adjusted within the past hour (7,575 Bernie- 8,770 based upon the Noon Update)  but they "weigh the polls" to adjust for Demographics, whatever the "F" that means.

Unrelated, but I feel like an email poll would favor Sanders, dont you think?

Is a bit OT.... but unfortunately we have no real exit polls to talk about, so why not?

Well it is a poll of those who voted earliest-by-mail, that screens out those who are not Registered Democrats who didn't request a separate "Democratic" ballot (that probably hits hardest at occasional and first-time voters). So in Oregon we had about 2% of "Independents" that wrote in candidates for the most part because they didn't follow the 30 day process... The overwhelming majority of these write-ins were for Hillary, Bernie, Trump in no particular order.

Honestly a mixed landline/cellphone based survey with both English and Spanish language interviews would be much more accurate, and much more expensive! Also, no idea how they would locate voters email addresses for those whom had already voted, since presumably it would be a voluntary entry on a voter registration form and people change emails regularly and have multiple email accounts.

[NOVA Green]

Best site to watch NJ election results?

[NOVA Green]

Best site to watch NJ election results?

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results

NYT results best results

Aah... should have figured they would be better than CNN for anywhere around NYC, been awhile.

[NOVA Green]

Benchmark calls NJ for Clinton? How?

Must be their "Demographic Model" that did so well in Oregon and a few other places....

[NOVA Green]

Hillary winning in largely white, rural Warren Co. Good sign for her in NJ?

Literally nothing's in yet, lol.

Don't challenge those 221 votes!!

We need to call the race now!!!! That precinct is 100% representative of the entire state of New Jersey for the past 100 years!

[NOVA Green]

So anyone want to bet they win call South Dakota before New Jersey, or that at least we actually start to get some returns in quickly?

I thought NJ was much more efficient at counting votes than NY, and doubly-so when it comes to NYC???    

[NOVA Green]

Not sure how they could call before a Bergen County dump...

Still wondering if South Dakota might get called first.

[NOVA Green]

Not sure how they could call before a Bergen County dump...

Still wondering if South Dakota might get called first.

Except that we totally know who's gonna win NJ and SD is a pure tossup and i don't know who'll win

Not arguing at all with the logic there, and totally agree, however it would be interesting if SD calls first, even though those of us "Out West" somehow always get hits on slow voting (Although Nevada totally deserves it) while one of the largest Northern states of the union is just creeping along with vote counting.

[NOVA Green]

And... Bergen County begins to report.

67-32 Clinton so far

ready to call it now?

Posted before this.... but yeah obviously once Bergen starts dumping big without any offsets, they should call this soon.

[NOVA Green]

SD could be called with 25 percent in.

I haven't seen anything come in from Sioux Falls yet other an 12 votes Hillary and 6 Bernie, although obviously her numbers in Eastern SD look good and we will see what comes in from the Western part of the state that accounts for 40% of the statewide vote.

[NOVA Green]

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The neat part is because of the math, this is invariant across the whole state. It's harder to move big piles from smaller piles.

I would much rather be the candidate with an early lead with a decent chunk of votes spread out over a key region than try to do a come from behind relying on a handful of population centers any day.

[NOVA Green]

It'll be hilarious if Sanders does better in NM than in SD

Yeah seriously. Hispanic heavy closed primary vs. white heavy open primary.

what is real anymore

Like I have said before, there is a huge difference between the "Latino Vote" in NM and AZ, and although some political sites day that NM is 55% Latino others say 35%, and ultimately NM is a state that defies the boundaries between "Old Spanish", "New Spanish", and those of Native Blood in a way that is both amazing and unique within any state of the US.

How will heavily "Latino" and "Asian" areas vote in California tonight

[NOVA Green]

Some woman is singing the Star-Spangled Banner at Clinton's rally

Well in the "Wild Wild West", like we use to say in Deadwood, South Dakota back when I was a kid, "don't shoot the piano player".

Seems like Cowboy Country is coming home for Hillary....

[NOVA Green]

So votes in yet from Santa Fe county New Mexico?

[NOVA Green]

So SD is going to come down to what happens with actual final margins between Rapid City and Sioux City?

[NOVA Green]

And now it's Cali's turn.

Now to the Big Enchilada, with all due respect to NJ the state of my birth...

[NOVA Green]

62-38 in Cali right now

All Napa County absentees

Sounds about right for the early VbM vote.... I called Napa as a 55-45 Hillary County on another thread, and still believe she will win the county, but by a slightly lower margin once all the votes are counted.

[NOVA Green]

Early vote in Fresno County, not necessarily indicating a major swing in the South Central Valley, but still something to consider in a part of the state with very little polling....

Fresno County was a 35-58 Hillary county and early votes are 32-67 Hillary.

[NOVA Green]

It's all right and this is typical for vote-by-mail states where the ballots that are counted are the first ones through the mail box.

Bernie was only winning Oregon by 5% at the end of election night and is now a 15% win, although it took a few days (and even weeks).

Basically in Cali, those that vote early with VbM are heavily older voters (55+) and higher-income voters, and a huge chunk of voters do it at the last minute (Including putting a stamp on your mail in ballot) or voting directly from voting machines.

Keep Calm and Carry On.

[NOVA Green]

Yeah, these aren't just early results.  More than half of Sacramento is in and she's winning that 63%-35%.  Hillary won California.  

Part of the problem with VbM states is that there are precinct declarations based upon estimated numbers on early turnout that doesn't represent total voting numbers. Seen it many times in Oregon and similar states....

Keep calm and carry on...