Trump's strategy: racial polarisation?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

So my working theory is Trump thinks that if he divides the country along racial lines (whites vs blacks/hispanics) the white majority will flock to him and send him to the White House. This is probably because he's very old and thinks it's 1980 when such a strategy did work.

[IceSpear]

Yep. The GOP wants to turn the entire country into Mississippi.

[Sir Mohamed]

Won’t work, because at least 40% of whites won’t vote for him. Adding this up to 95% of blacks, 70-75% of latinos and 80% of Asians, Hillary will win decisively.

[IceSpear]

because at least 40% of whites won’t vote for him.

Based on what?

[Santander]

Democrats did it. Trump just capitalizes on it.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Democrats did it. Trump just capitalizes on it.

Passing the Civil Rights act you mean?

[Redban]

Racial polarization is not a good strategy for him. Of all the races, whites are the least monolithic politically.

65-70% of whites might go Republican on their best year, but the other 30-35% are people (e.g. environmentalists, LGBT activists, youths, scientists, professors, city-dwellers, atheists etc) who will just never vote Republican because voting Republican defies their core beliefs.

[Lincoln Republican]

Won’t work, because at least 40% of whites won’t vote for him. Adding this up to 95% of blacks, 70-75% of latinos and 80% of Asians, Hillary will win decisively.

This is correct.  Democrats will win at least 40% of the white vote, and since the Republican candidate this time is Trump, I expect Democrats will win a higher share of the white vote this election.

[Ebsy]

Well, it's a losing strategy.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Well, it's a losing strategy.

No-one said Trump is smart.

[136or142]

I can see this.  Trump's real aim is to complete Charles Manson's self imposed mission of starting a black-white race war.  I suggest to Trump that he take his 144,000 biggest idiot supporters and he and they spend the rest of their lives searching for the bottomless pit.

[Angrie]

Basically spot on. Yep.

[Ljube]

Democrats did it. Trump just capitalizes on it.

[mgop]

So my working theory is Trump thinks that if he divides the country along racial lines (whites vs blacks/hispanics) the white majority will flock to him and send him to the White House. This is probably because he's very old and thinks it's 1980 when such a strategy did work.

r u retarded? thats what dems do, and thats why they have 95% uneducated black votes.

[skoods]

Democrats did it. Trump just capitalizes on it.

Please take the red D out of your profile.

And how exactly is Trump capitalizing on anything? He's going to lose and lose badly with that strategy because unlike your fellow mouth breathing Kentucky whites, educated whites in the northeast and swing states will not vote for Trump.

[Green Line]

Both parties have done their part to contribute to racial polarization.  Hacks on both sides will accuse the other party, but Republicans and Democrats both want to benefit off of it and have used it in the past.

[Santander]

Democrats did it. Trump just capitalizes on it.

Please take the red D out of your profile.

And how exactly is Trump capitalizing on anything? He's going to lose and lose badly with that strategy because unlike your fellow mouth breathing Kentucky whites, educated whites in the northeast and swing states will not vote for Trump.

Other than the fact that I'm an educated non-white who lived in NJ before I moved to KY, everything you said about me is completely right.

[jaichind]

Well, it's a losing strategy.

Could be.  But I think it is worth a try.  I always felt that if the White share of the national population falls to something like the mid 60s then there will be a lot more tribal based voting by the White population.   Of course how higher income Hispanics identify themselves will be a wildcard in this dynamic.  Not sure Trump is the best way to go about it as he brings along other baggage but this election seems like a great way to try out my theory, even if it is premature.  Excited to see how this plays out.

[Wisconsin+17]

the problem with 'Tribal voting' is the Catholic issue. Catholics value their tribe of Catholics over anything Trump has to offer.

If Catholics feel that their only choices are Hillary (who despises Catholics and everything we stand for) and Trump (who also despises everything we stand for), Catholics will just sit out or vote third party.

Trump needs: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, Ohio. He cannot win without Hispanic support because of Florida. And even if he increased his white turnout, he would have to appeal enough to Catholics to get over the hump. Basically, Trump is boned.

[Green Line]

the problem with 'Tribal voting' is the Catholic issue. Catholics value their tribe of Catholics over anything Trump has to offer.

If Catholics feel that their only choices are Hillary (who despises Catholics and everything we stand for) and Trump (who also despises everything we stand for), Catholics will just sit out or vote third party.

Trump needs: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, Ohio. He cannot win without Hispanic support because of Florida. And even if he increased his white turnout, he would have to appeal enough to Catholics to get over the hump. Basically, Trump is boned.

What Catholics do you speak to?  We are certainly not a tribe.

[uti2]

the problem with 'Tribal voting' is the Catholic issue. Catholics value their tribe of Catholics over anything Trump has to offer.

If Catholics feel that their only choices are Hillary (who despises Catholics and everything we stand for) and Trump (who also despises everything we stand for), Catholics will just sit out or vote third party.

Trump needs: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, Ohio. He cannot win without Hispanic support because of Florida. And even if he increased his white turnout, he would have to appeal enough to Catholics to get over the hump. Basically, Trump is boned.

Trump does best with White Catholics out of all demographics. Hispanic =/ Catholic

[Boston Bread]

So my working theory is Trump thinks that if he divides the country along racial lines (whites vs blacks/hispanics) the white majority will flock to him and send him to the White House. This is probably because he's very old and thinks it's 1980 when such a strategy did work.

r u retarded? thats what dems do, and thats why they have 95% uneducated black votes.

so educated blacks are voting republican?

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Uh, no. Quite the opposite.

[jaichind]

the problem with 'Tribal voting' is the Catholic issue. Catholics value their tribe of Catholics over anything Trump has to offer.

If Catholics feel that their only choices are Hillary (who despises Catholics and everything we stand for) and Trump (who also despises everything we stand for), Catholics will just sit out or vote third party.

Trump needs: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, Ohio. He cannot win without Hispanic support because of Florida. And even if he increased his white turnout, he would have to appeal enough to Catholics to get over the hump. Basically, Trump is boned.

That is actually sort of my point.  When "Whites" were 95%or 90% of the population there was no such thing as Whites (they are Polish, Irish, Italian etc etc). When they are 65% of the population and falling and faced with well organized ethnic voting blocs outside of Whites then they start to identify as Whites and then engage in bloc voting.  I am not claiming that I scientifically know that low 60% is the right threshold but it is something I derived at how ethnic bloc voting takes place at an international level.

[Boston Bread]

A race war is what Trump and his supporters want, but polls don't show him doing better than Romney with the white vote. He's holding steady at best, or doing even worse in others.