"GOP mulls convention challenge to Trump" LATEST: unbinding voted down in cmte

[Lief 🗽]

And these are the numbers coming from the Trump campaign... I wonder what the real numbers are.

[Wisconsin+17]

It would be amazing if he loses this at the convention.

[Crumpets]

I still don't see him losing even if it goes to the second ballot if the alternative is Ted freaking Cruz. Unless Romney or Ryan jump in, I think people will just go with the will of the voters and not risk massively alienating all of Trump's people.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Meanwhile, back in reality...

[wolfsblood07]

Okay, so as of today Trump has 1542 delegates.  1237 needed to win the nomination.  It's funny how we were led to believe that Trump would fall short of a majority.  Those were the days...

[Ronnie]

The problem with the premise of this article is that there aren't enough #NeverTrump Rules Committee members to pass a motion to unbind the delegates in the first place.

[The Other Castro]

Okay, so as of today Trump has 1542 delegates.  1237 needed to win the nomination.  It's funny how we were led to believe that Trump would fall short of a majority.  Those were the days...

It helps not to have other candidates to compete against in the final 9 contests.

[Mr. Morden]

Okay, so as of today Trump has 1542 delegates.

But that's including unpledged delegates who've endorsed him, no?  Pledged delegates alone is more like 1400 and something.

I presume that many of unpledged delegates would have held back if he hadn't been able to make it on pledged delegates alone, and there was more of a real question as to whether he'd be nominated.

In any case, many of Trump's pledged delegates didn't personally support him in the primaries and are not Trump diehards.  In principle, they *could* defect on procedural votes about unbinding delegates or raising the threshold for victory on the first ballot.  But there aren't going to be enough of them to do so.  The question is more about whether there's a minority report coming out of the rules committee that will force the full convention to take votes on this stuff, which would be kind of embarrassing for Trump, but won't be enough to prevent his nomination.

[Kingpoleon]

Okay, so as of today Trump has 1542 delegates.  1237 needed to win the nomination.  It's funny how we were led to believe that Trump would fall short of a majority.  Those were the days...

I was shocked that Atlas listened to the pundits. Absolutely shocked.

[wolfsblood07]

One guy had predicted in April that Trump might get to 1400 delegates and he was labeled a nut.  Everyone else was saying he'd be somewhere around 1150 or 1200. 

[Mr. Morden]

One guy had predicted in April that Trump might get to 1400 delegates and he was labeled a nut.  Everyone else was saying he'd be somewhere around 1150 or 1200. 

It comes down to whether you were anticipating that both Cruz and Kasich would drop out or not.  If either of them had stayed in, then no way would Trump have gotten close to 1400 on pledged delegates alone.  (A good number of the unpledged delegates were always going to flock to him if he clinched the nomination from the pledged delegates alone.)

[Gustaf]

Yeah, this isn't rocket science. Obviously his numbers shot up when they dropped out.

I wonder if Cruz is planning a coup attempt with his "holding a speech without endorsing yet" thing going on?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Yeah, this isn't rocket science. Obviously his numbers shot up when they dropped out.

I wonder if Cruz is planning a coup attempt with his "holding a speech without endorsing yet" thing going on?

Coup, or just denouncing TrumpMiller in the most public way possible to distance himself from what many see as the inevitable disaster?

[Fuzzy Bear]

One side effect of "unbinding" the delegates at this convention is to make it harder for at least SOME candidates to gain financial support for their primary campaigns.  What would donors think if they were financing only a "beauty contest" primary with unpledged delegates?  Could an "outsider" ever hope to be nominated by a party that "unbound" their delegates on the first ballot?

That leads to the second effect; the posture of such an action as an anti-outsider stance by the GOP that would quench the aspirations of lots of "outsiders".  It would lead a number of Republicans to believe that, one way or another, the GOP will only nominated Bushes and Romneys and the like.  For some, that would be reassuring that there will be no more of this outsider nonsense.  For others, it would alienate them from the GOP to the point where voting Republican would be difficult.

[Mr. Morden]

The anti-Trump delegates are pushing a rule change that would make it easier for them to put forward an alternative VP nomination, and would force a re-vote if no one gets the support of at least 2/3rds of the delegates on the first ballot:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/rosiegray/anti-trump-delegates-are-making-a-plan-to-pick-their-own-vic

[The Other Castro]

Is it...is it happening?

"'Dump Trump' RNC Delegate Leader: We 'Have The 28 Votes' To Unbind Delegates"

http://www.dailywire.com/news/7337/exclusive-dump-trump-rnc-delegate-leader-we-have-daily-wire?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=news&utm_campaign=twitterbenshapiro

[The Other Castro]

Is it...is it happening?

"'Dump Trump' RNC Delegate Leader: We 'Have The 28 Votes' To Unbind Delegates"

http://www.dailywire.com/news/7337/exclusive-dump-trump-rnc-delegate-leader-we-have-daily-wire?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=news&utm_campaign=twitterbenshapiro

They have the 28 votes to refer it to the floor.  Actually passing it on the floor with the cameras rolling should be 1000X harder.

The fact that there could be a vote at all is pretty big.

[Wisconsin+17]

So it begins.

[IceSpear]

So it begins.

You're gonna be disappointed.

[Mr. Morden]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/gop-delegate-seeking-to-vote-his-conscience-in-cleveland-scores-symbolic-win/2016/07/11/39b99862-47a6-11e6-acbc-4d4870a079da_story.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Here’s the timeline for the rules committee this week:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/donald-trump-convention-platform-225450

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Also:

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[The Other Castro]

Big news for the Rules Committee:

Mike Lee and his wife are both delegates on the Rules Committee, and are now both expected to vote for the conscience clause. This could help provide some cover to other delegates on the committee that were undecided on voting for the clause.

The NBC whip count says there are at least 16 delegates in favor of the delegate unbinding, 4 undecided, 22 unknown, and 68 opposed.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/stop-trump-effort-short-striking-distance-ahead-committee-meeting-n608756

[Mr. Morden]

Twitter reports from the Rules Committee meeting:

https://twitter.com/TalKopan/status/753765010250272772
https://twitter.com/LACaldwellDC/status/753764221045706752

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[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/DavidMDrucker/status/753765778361462785

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https://twitter.com/ballotpedia/status/753768566655160320

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https://twitter.com/TalKopan/status/753766982147649536
https://twitter.com/TalKopan/status/753768229391052800

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[Likely Voter]

Ben Ginsberg was on MTP Daily and said the unbinding group was more serious than people realized and the final vote was tomorrow morning. He also said picking Pence wont really effect the vote.