Is Darrell Issa in trouble?

[IceSpear]

I felt this was worthy of its own thread. Discuss.

[Gass3268]

One can only hope.

[Sbane]

Demographically speaking, it should be a good district for the GOP. Issa could be in trouble though because he is such a divisive figure. Ed Royce is the other congressman we should keep our eye on. He could get swept out in an anti-Trump landslide.

[Ebsy]

I think there is going to be trouble for several GOP congresscritters in heavily latino districts.

[Gass3268]

Demographically speaking, it should be a good district for the GOP. Issa could be in trouble though because he is such a divisive figure. Ed Royce is the other congressman we should keep our eye on. He could get swept out in an anti-Trump landslide.

Steve Knight also needs to watch out.

[windjammer]

Demographically speaking, it should be a good district for the GOP. Issa could be in trouble though because he is such a divisive figure. Ed Royce is the other congressman we should keep our eye on. He could get swept out in an anti-Trump landslide.

What about Valadao, Denham and Knight ?
(I honestly dont know anything about this state)

[Ebsy]

Demographically speaking, it should be a good district for the GOP. Issa could be in trouble though because he is such a divisive figure. Ed Royce is the other congressman we should keep our eye on. He could get swept out in an anti-Trump landslide.

What about Valadao, Denham and Knight ?
(I honestly dont know anything about this state)

Denham and Knight might be in serious trouble, but Valadao looks fairly secure.

[Sbane]

Demographically speaking, it should be a good district for the GOP. Issa could be in trouble though because he is such a divisive figure. Ed Royce is the other congressman we should keep our eye on. He could get swept out in an anti-Trump landslide.

Steve Knight also needs to watch out.

Oh yes, of course. And most of the prediction sites do list his district as a potential flip. Royce is never mentioned in those lists but it could be those potential sleeper seats that could flip in a landslide that almost no one saw coming.

[publicunofficial]

Even if you argue the primary means nothing for the general, it'll make Dem donors pay attention to the race.

Doug Applegate had previously been talked about as the kind of strong candidate who could make the most of a D wave helping him out. And Issa certainly has more attack ad fodder than say Royce, Denham, or Valadao.

[catographer]

So sad for the CAGOP that this rock-ribbed Republican seat in San Diego/Orange counties is being talked about as vulnerable. With no candidate for the Senate in November and Trump turning out Democratic voters, RIP California Republicans. Check out Scott Peters' performance in the 52nd: 58% in the primary!

[136or142]

Hopefully an Apple(gate) a day will keep Issa away (from Congress).  Although I think the only thing Issa doctors is evidence.

[Rick Grimes]

yes CA is all clinton and super left, only a few GOP will remain in the valley/north cal, expect a dem sweep in SoCal.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Check out Scott Peters' performance in the 52nd: 58% in the primary!

As well as Ruiz dominating with 56.6% in CA-36 in a 3 way race. Just 4 years ago, Bono Mack trounced Ruiz in the primary 58-42 and retained her seat 8 years ago with the same numbers.

Although my gut instinct says it's a 55-45 Issa win at least, it depends quite a bit on how much the the state party wants to invest. I still remember being stunned by Rep. Calvert coming within 10,000 votes and <5% of losing in the 2008 Obama wave (R+6 district, mind you), despite no heavy investment by the Democrats to challenge the seat. Certainly worth a shot

For SoCal Republicans, if it doesn't appear so already, the times they are a-becoming quite different.

[IceSpear]

Check out Scott Peters' performance in the 52nd: 58% in the primary!

As well as Ruiz dominating with 56.6% in CA-36 in a 3 way race. Just 4 years ago, Bono Mack trounced Ruiz in the primary 58-42 and retained her seat 8 years ago with the same numbers.

Although my gut instinct says it's a 55-45 Issa win at least, it depends quite a bit on how much the the state party wants to invest. I still remember being stunned by Rep. Calvert coming within 10,000 votes and <5% of losing in the 2008 Obama wave (R+6 district, mind you), despite no heavy investment by the Democrats to challenge the seat. Certainly worth a shot

For SoCal Republicans, if it doesn't appear so already, the times they are a-becoming quite different.

But on the other hand, Denham and Valadao performed extremely well.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Check out Scott Peters' performance in the 52nd: 58% in the primary!

As well as Ruiz dominating with 56.6% in CA-36 in a 3 way race. Just 4 years ago, Bono Mack trounced Ruiz in the primary 58-42 and retained her seat 8 years ago with the same numbers.

Although my gut instinct says it's a 55-45 Issa win at least, it depends quite a bit on how much the the state party wants to invest. I still remember being stunned by Rep. Calvert coming within 10,000 votes and <5% of losing in the 2008 Obama wave (R+6 district, mind you), despite no heavy investment by the Democrats to challenge the seat. Certainly worth a shot

For SoCal Republicans, if it doesn't appear so already, the times they are a-becoming quite different.

But on the other hand, Denham and Valadao performed extremely well.

True, although I'm speaking strictly about Riverside/OC and not so much the Central Valley. If you were to tell me Issa would be doing worse in his district than Valadao a week ago, even with 2 Democrats splitting the vote against him, I would have called you insane. The November election for California is getting more and more interesting as the final primary votes come in

[hopper]

Demographically speaking, it should be a good district for the GOP. Issa could be in trouble though because he is such a divisive figure. Ed Royce is the other congressman we should keep our eye on. He could get swept out in an anti-Trump landslide.

What about Valadao, Denham and Knight ?
(I honestly dont know anything about this state)

Denham and Knight might be in serious trouble, but Valadao looks fairly secure.

Yes the "Cook Political Report" just moved Knight's race to "Toss-up" so he is in some trouble.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Demographically speaking, it should be a good district for the GOP. Issa could be in trouble though because he is such a divisive figure. Ed Royce is the other congressman we should keep our eye on. He could get swept out in an anti-Trump landslide.

What about Valadao, Denham and Knight ?
(I honestly dont know anything about this state)

Denham and Knight might be in serious trouble, but Valadao looks fairly secure.

Yes the "Cook Political Report" just moved Knight's race to "Toss-up" so he is in some trouble.

Cook Political Report overuses the Toss-up rating. Take it with a grain of salt.

[ElectionsGuy]

I think this may just be an oddity of low Republican turnout and an unusually strong Democratic opponent. He may make Issa sweat a little, but shouldn't be a problem winning.

[Maxwell]

Related: I just learned Issa's district is only R+4. Tough, sure, but not unbeatable, especially if the incumbent is unpopular (which is potentially the case) and there is a strong opponent (which is potentially the case).

[Nyvin]

Orange County also has an Asian population that's exploding...I wonder if that'll hurt Issa with all of Trump's rhetoric.

Applegate is also a retired Marine Corps colonel...and CA-49 falls right on Camp Pendleton!   Wow,  this just might be the perfect storm to take out Issa!

[publicunofficial]

I think this may just be an oddity of low Republican turnout and an unusually strong Democratic opponent. He may make Issa sweat a little, but shouldn't be a problem winning.

Worth noting that the other OC Republicans didn't have as much trouble.

Ed Royce has a decent opponent and a similar PVI district, and he crushed the primary with 60%+.

[RINO Tom]

Donald Trump: the Republican who can make Orange County a potential disaster.

Congratulations, clash, with this new shltshow our party will be for this (God willing only one) election.

[Maxwell]

I think this may just be an oddity of low Republican turnout and an unusually strong Democratic opponent. He may make Issa sweat a little, but shouldn't be a problem winning.

Worth noting that the other OC Republicans didn't have as much trouble.

Ed Royce has a decent opponent and a similar PVI district, and he crushed the primary with 60%+.

Royce isn't as public nor as criminal as Issa, though. An OC Republican can stay out of the limelight and probably get re-elected at least 10 more times.

[DrScholl]

Most of the district is in San Diego County, not Orange (check the maps, please) and Issa barely carried it. I'd say that Issa loses this seat, because it's not a good sign for any incumbent to perform that weakly in the primary.

[Vega]

Orange County also has an Asian population that's exploding...I wonder if that'll hurt Issa with all of Trump's rhetoric.

Applegate is also a retired Marine Corps colonel...and CA-49 falls right on Camp Pendleton!   Wow,  this just might be the perfect storm to take out Issa!

East Asians or South Asians? Because the former is !ore supportive of Trump, apparently.