How will these states vote in comparison to the national average?
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  How will these states vote in comparison to the national average?
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Author Topic: How will these states vote in comparison to the national average?  (Read 718 times)
Spark
Spark498
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« on: June 08, 2016, 02:43:44 PM »

FL, OH, PA, WI, MI, VA, CO, NV, NH, NC, IA. Which candidate has a better chance in each state? Explain your reasoning.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1 on: June 08, 2016, 02:48:10 PM »

More D:
FL
WI
MI
VA
CO
NV
NH

More R:
OH
PA
NC
IA
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Redban
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« Reply #2 on: June 08, 2016, 02:54:04 PM »

More D:
FL
WI
MI
VA
CO
NV
NH

More R:
OH
PA
NC
IA

Florida has not voted more D since Jimmy Carter.
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Doimper
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« Reply #3 on: June 08, 2016, 02:56:46 PM »

More D:
FL
WI
MI
VA
CO
NV
NH

More R:
OH
PA
NC
IA

Florida has not voted more D since Jimmy Carter.

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Redban
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« Reply #4 on: June 08, 2016, 02:58:44 PM »

More D:
FL
WI
MI
VA
CO
NV
NH

More R:
OH
PA
NC
IA

Florida has not voted more D since Jimmy Carter.

[img width=760 height=570]http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/55918b77ecad04a3465a0a63/nbc-fires-donald-trump-after-he-calls-mexicans-rapists-and-drug-runners.jpg[/ig]

Trump has deep roots in Florida, and he performed well in the state during the primaries. There is no legitimate reason to think that he will fare worse than other Republicans in the state.
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Wells
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« Reply #5 on: June 08, 2016, 02:59:59 PM »

More D:
FL
WI
MI
VA
CO
NV
NH

More R:
OH
PA
NC
IA

Florida has not voted more D since Jimmy Carter.

[img width=760 height=570]http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/55918b77ecad04a3465a0a63/nbc-fires-donald-trump-after-he-calls-mexicans-rapists-and-drug-runners.jpg[/ig]

Trump has deep roots in Florida, and he performed well in the state during the primaries. There is no legitimate reason to think that he will fare worse than other Republicans in the state.

Hispanics.
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Redban
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« Reply #6 on: June 08, 2016, 03:03:56 PM »

More D:
FL
WI
MI
VA
CO
NV
NH

More R:
OH
PA
NC
IA

Florida has not voted more D since Jimmy Carter.

[img width=760 height=570]http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/55918b77ecad04a3465a0a63/nbc-fires-donald-trump-after-he-calls-mexicans-rapists-and-drug-runners.jpg[/ig]

Trump has deep roots in Florida, and he performed well in the state during the primaries. There is no legitimate reason to think that he will fare worse than other Republicans in the state.

Hispanics.

We're talking Florida, not New Mexico, Arizona, or Nevada. In the latter states, Hispanics are Mexican-Americans who are (supposedly) heavily anti-Trump. In Florida, Hispanics are more diverse, and some have historically supported GOP candidates (e.g. Cubans). Factor in Trump's ties to the state and his performance in the primary, there arises no reason to think that his presence alone will change a 40 year trend.
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Sbane
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« Reply #7 on: June 08, 2016, 03:17:31 PM »

More D:
FL
WI
MI
VA
CO
NV
NH

More R:
OH
PA
NC
IA

Florida has not voted more D since Jimmy Carter.

[img width=760 height=570]http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/55918b77ecad04a3465a0a63/nbc-fires-donald-trump-after-he-calls-mexicans-rapists-and-drug-runners.jpg[/ig]

Trump has deep roots in Florida, and he performed well in the state during the primaries. There is no legitimate reason to think that he will fare worse than other Republicans in the state.

Hispanics.

We're talking Florida, not New Mexico, Arizona, or Nevada. In the latter states, Hispanics are Mexican-Americans who are (supposedly) heavily anti-Trump. In Florida, Hispanics are more diverse, and some have historically supported GOP candidates (e.g. Cubans). Factor in Trump's ties to the state and his performance in the primary, there arises no reason to think that his presence alone will change a 40 year trend.

If anything, this is why the potential for a swing among Florida (and Texas) Hispanics is higher than in the Southwest.
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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: June 08, 2016, 03:21:35 PM »

More Democratic: Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, Wisconsin
Nearly even: Florida, Iowa, Pennsylvania
More Republican: North Carolina, Ohio
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Dereich
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« Reply #9 on: June 08, 2016, 03:30:11 PM »
« Edited: June 08, 2016, 03:32:02 PM by Dereich »

More D:
FL
WI
MI
VA
CO
NV
NH

More R:
OH
PA
NC
IA

Florida has not voted more D since Jimmy Carter.

[img width=760 height=570]http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/55918b77ecad04a3465a0a63/nbc-fires-donald-trump-after-he-calls-mexicans-rapists-and-drug-runners.jpg[/ig]

Trump has deep roots in Florida, and he performed well in the state during the primaries. There is no legitimate reason to think that he will fare worse than other Republicans in the state.

Hispanics.

We're talking Florida, not New Mexico, Arizona, or Nevada. In the latter states, Hispanics are Mexican-Americans who are (supposedly) heavily anti-Trump. In Florida, Hispanics are more diverse, and some have historically supported GOP candidates (e.g. Cubans). Factor in Trump's ties to the state and his performance in the primary, there arises no reason to think that his presence alone will change a 40 year trend.


Trump's primary performance with Cubans was dismal. He was blown out in Miami-Dade and his approval rating among Florida Hispanics was around 12% during the primary season. Romney won 39% of Florida Hispanics and I'd guess Trump gets around 25%.

As for ties to the state, sure he has ties to West Palm Beach, but that's not going to help anywhere outside the WPB/Ft. Lauderdale area. The rest of the state is too different and unconnected with South Florida for people to care what goes on over there. And any ties might be useless with the disaster that is Trump's campaign in the state.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #10 on: June 08, 2016, 03:56:46 PM »

We're talking Florida, not New Mexico, Arizona, or Nevada. In the latter states, Hispanics are Mexican-Americans who are (supposedly) heavily anti-Trump. In Florida, Hispanics are more diverse, and some have historically supported GOP candidates (e.g. Cubans). Factor in Trump's ties to the state and his performance in the primary, there arises no reason to think that his presence alone will change a 40 year trend.

Florida is not much whiter than Nevada (55.8% vs 51.5%, per Census 2014 projections). Further, Florida has twice as many African Americans. Cubans and the overall Floridian Hispanic electorate have been realigning towards Democrats since 2008, and election results and party registration statistics since then confirm that. Younger Cubans just aren't staunch Republicans like their elders. Polls among FL Hispanics show dismal numbers for Trump, and if they are to be believed, Democrats could see record support from them this year. Perhaps if Republicans had voted to nominate Jeb or Rubio, we'd be singing a very different tune here.

Also, primary results really aren't predictive of general election results. There is little to no correlation. As for your 40-year trend, sure, but since the late 90s, the voting patterns in FL even up to now suggest a different trend is underway.
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mgop
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« Reply #11 on: June 08, 2016, 04:02:36 PM »

FL going republican. there is more than miami dade in florida silly dems, and cuban americans are hard working people so you do the math.
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Wells
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« Reply #12 on: June 08, 2016, 04:06:24 PM »

FL going republican. there is more than Miami-dade in Florida silly Dems, and Cuban Americans are hard working people so you do the math.

I believe Virginia and Dereich already did the math in the above posts.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #13 on: June 08, 2016, 04:38:44 PM »

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It's called Hispanics, and they will cost Trump the election. Romney won 35 percent and it wasn't enough. Trump's getting obliterated here.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #14 on: June 08, 2016, 04:48:29 PM »

FL going republican. there is more than miami dade in florida silly dems, and cuban americans are hard working people so you do the math.

Silly Dems! Floridas are for Republicans! XD
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #15 on: June 08, 2016, 05:27:37 PM »

FL going republican. there is more than Miami-dade in Florida silly Dems, and Cuban Americans are hard working people so you do the math.

I believe Virginia and Dereich already did the math in the above posts.

no but you see its maths that he doesn't agree with, therefore it must be wrong
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Curbstomp
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« Reply #16 on: June 08, 2016, 07:19:27 PM »

More R due to no Obama and Trump fighting back, unlike McCain/Romney

FL
OH
PA
MI
NC
IA

More D

WI
VA
NV

Either way

CO
NH

Typical reasoning on here seems to be LOL no/junk poll.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #17 on: June 08, 2016, 07:28:21 PM »

More Democratic: NH obviously, VA, CO, NV
About even: WI, PA
More Republican: NC, OH, IA, FL (but not by much)

There, now you don't look like such a jacka*s.
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catographer
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« Reply #18 on: June 09, 2016, 02:11:35 AM »

I can't say how they'll compare to the national avg, but I will give the order of how Democratic I think they'll be. Top to bottom most to least Democratic:

MI
WI
NV
NH
IA
VA
CO
OH
PA
NC
FL
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