Does the Electoral College help or hurt Trump?

[MT Treasurer]

As crazy as it may sound, I think it helps him. 

[RR1997]

Helps him

There's a very high chance that Donald Trump wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote.

[Ljube]

Helps him

There's a very high chance that Donald Trump wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote.

[RJEvans]

Helps him

There's a very high chance that Donald Trump wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote.

If that happens again, I have to say, I think the SC will step in and abolish the EC, especially if Clinton wins by a decent margin. I can definitely see Roberts and Kennedy joining the liberal judges in that decision given 1) the disaster that was Bush and the controversy surrounding that 2) the divisive rhetoric that Trump has undertaken 3) denying the first woman popularly elected as President will not go down so well.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Helps him

There's a very high chance that Donald Trump wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote.

If that happens again, I have to say, I think the SC will step in and abolish the EC, especially if Clinton wins by a decent margin. I can definitely see Roberts and Kennedy joining the liberal judges in that decision given 1) the disaster that was Bush and the controversy surrounding that 2) the divisive rhetoric that Trump has undertaken 3) denying the first woman popularly elected as President will not go down so well.

The EC is specifically laid out in the Constitution.  How can the SCOTUS change this?

[Higgs]

Helps him

There's a very high chance that Donald Trump wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote.

If that happens again, I have to say, I think the SC will step in and abolish the EC, especially if Clinton wins by a decent margin. I can definitely see Roberts and Kennedy joining the liberal judges in that decision given 1) the disaster that was Bush and the controversy surrounding that 2) the divisive rhetoric that Trump has undertaken 3) denying the first woman popularly elected as President will not go down so well.

The EC is specifically laid out in the Constitution.  How can the SCOTUS change this?

Yeah if the EC was abolished it wouldn't be done through the Supreme Court, that makes no sense at all.

[ProudModerate2]

As crazy as it may sound, I think it helps him. 

I agree. In all honesty, as each year passes and we and the world slowly become more and more "liberal," the electoral college (vs the popular vote) will always be the only chance the Republicans have, if and only if the election is very close.
In tight races, I can see the Republicans winning the electoral college, but losing the popular vote, time and again.

[Wisconsin+17]

No, because he's going to get blown out. So I would say it hurts him.

[Xing]

I don't think it will have a big impact. I certainly don't think the chances of a split are high, and if either candidate wins the PV by more than 1%, I'm very confident that that candidate will also win the EC.

[SteveRogers]

Helps him

There's a very high chance that Donald Trump wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote.

If that happens again, I have to say, I think the SC will step in and abolish the EC, especially if Clinton wins by a decent margin. I can definitely see Roberts and Kennedy joining the liberal judges in that decision given 1) the disaster that was Bush and the controversy surrounding that 2) the divisive rhetoric that Trump has undertaken 3) denying the first woman popularly elected as President will not go down so well.

That's not how any of that works. The EC can't be held unconstitutional because it's explicitly set forth in the Constitution. Out of curiosity, on what grounds do you see the Court reaching that holding?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It helps him if the early state vs. general polls are any indication.  People tend to think that the EC favors the Democrats just because it did in 2012, but it tends to go back and forth over time (see: 2000).  Actually, it theoretically should slightly favor the GOP in the long run because of Republican strength in small states, which are slightly over-represented in the EC.

[Panhandle Progressive]

No, because he's going to get blown out. So I would say it hurts him.

Agreed.

[IceSpear]

Too early to tell.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

I doubt it dramatically helps or hurts either candidate. 

[dspNY]

No real impact on his chances because he will lose decisively

[Curbstomp]

The Electoral College needs to have votes based on congressional district. That way both candidates would have to win over the entire country.

[Famous Mortimer]

The Electoral College needs to have votes based on congressional district. That way both candidates would have to win over the entire country.

This is a bad idea and you should feel bad.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Helps him

There's a very high chance that Donald Trump wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote.

If that happens again, I have to say, I think the SC will step in and abolish the EC, especially if Clinton wins by a decent margin. I can definitely see Roberts and Kennedy joining the liberal judges in that decision given 1) the disaster that was Bush and the controversy surrounding that 2) the divisive rhetoric that Trump has undertaken 3) denying the first woman popularly elected as President will not go down so well.

The EC is specifically laid out in the Constitution.  How can the SCOTUS change this?

But the way of allocating the EVs is not laid out.

[SteveRogers]

The Electoral College needs to have votes based on congressional district. That way both candidates would have to win over the entire country.

Nope.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The Electoral College needs to have votes based on congressional district. That way both candidates would have to win over the entire country.

Nope.

Given how awfully gerrymandered CDs are, that's even worse than winner-take-all statewide distribution.

[SteveRogers]

Helps him

There's a very high chance that Donald Trump wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote.

If that happens again, I have to say, I think the SC will step in and abolish the EC, especially if Clinton wins by a decent margin. I can definitely see Roberts and Kennedy joining the liberal judges in that decision given 1) the disaster that was Bush and the controversy surrounding that 2) the divisive rhetoric that Trump has undertaken 3) denying the first woman popularly elected as President will not go down so well.

The EC is specifically laid out in the Constitution.  How can the SCOTUS change this?

But the way of allocating the EVs is not laid out.

True, and having a statewide popular election at all is a pretty big step up from what the founders intended the range of options there to include haha. But I take your point; I suppose one could get creative and argue something to the effect that the equal protection clause now requires states to do something more proportional with the allocation of their electoral votes. But the Constitution does lay out how electoral votes are apportioned between the states (Number of senators plus number of representatives), and that doesn't actually lend itself well to proportional representation within the state. A small state's 3 EVs just aren't going to divide up nicely. And as you pointed out already, allocation by congressional district isn't better. The EC just seems like a pretty explicit exception that you can't apply things like "one person, one vote" to (that argument actually has been tried in District Court. It didn't get far).

[IceSpear]

The Electoral College needs to have votes based on congressional district. That way both candidates would have to win over the entire country.

Nope.

Given how awfully gerrymandered CDs are, that's even worse than winner-take-all statewide distribution.

The one upside is there would be so much outrage from this it would probably be enough to eventually end gerrymandering, but yeah, the horrible effects in the interim would certainly not be worth it.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

It helps, like it helps the nominee of any rural party.

MT, ID, NE, SD, ND, KS et al.

Not that that's a bad thing. Dems need to step up their game in rural America.

[Desroko]

Helps him

There's a very high chance that Donald Trump wins the electoral college but loses the popular vote.

If that happens again, I have to say, I think the SC will step in and abolish the EC, especially if Clinton wins by a decent margin. I can definitely see Roberts and Kennedy joining the liberal judges in that decision given 1) the disaster that was Bush and the controversy surrounding that 2) the divisive rhetoric that Trump has undertaken 3) denying the first woman popularly elected as President will not go down so well.

The EC is specifically laid out in the Constitution.  How can the SCOTUS change this?

But the way of allocating the EVs is not laid out.

States have plenary power to select electors,* as long as those electors are not federal officeholders. The Court doesn't have grounds to change that.

*Which, out of all the defects in the current Constitution, might be the most dangerous.

[Virginiá]

It helps him if the early state vs. general polls are any indication.  People tend to think that the EC favors the Democrats just because it did in 2012, but it tends to go back and forth over time (see: 2000).  Actually, it theoretically should slightly favor the GOP in the long run because of Republican strength in small states, which are slightly over-represented in the EC.

Not sure what you're basing this on. Parties switch back and forth on electoral college advantages over time because certain state-level trends put critical states into one party or the other's column over time. The GOP had an EC advantage at one point, and now the Democrats have developed one now. So far, all the newest swing states have been traditionally red states that began moving towards Democrats. Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Florida and in the not-so-distant future, Georgia and Arizona. Pretty much no blue wall states have trended significantly towards Republicans, and voting patterns of young adults in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania do not suggest a GOP trend. That is, assuming they hold, which they have been for decade(s) now. So the GOP has basically been bleeding states over the past generation while Democrats have held their own, moreor less.

Trump has no advantage in the EC right now. His standing is looking pretty bad, actually.