Does the recent gun massacre of 50+ LGBT people in Orlando, Florida...

[IceSpear]

Honestly, I find not only the thread title/poll extremely disturbing, considering this is the largest act of Domestic Terrorism since Oklahoma City, and the the most massive Hate Crime committed in a single day, but also shocked on how so many on this forum are jumping in right off the bat to "discuss" how this will all play out in the Presidential Election.

Right now, families are on death watch and taking turns in the emergency room hoping that their loved ones will survive to see another day, which from personal experience is a process that could take months,  and all some people want to talk about is will it help/hurt Trump/Clinton.... Yes political decisions and policies have consequences, yes this is major event in the history of America and the intersections of guns/LGBT/ISIS/Immigration have a bunch of people riled up over some traditional hot-button domestic political items.

Ultimately once again we have a crazy American nutjob that decides to go out in a blaze of glory and commit mass murder because he was mentally unstable and decided to target a minority population that he despised, because his own life had become a failure, and it is extremely easy to buy an AR-15 within a few days in Florida.

Instead of a thread about how will this impact the 2016 elections, maybe there should be a thread about how this despicable massacre impacts us personally as individuals and Americans, and what measures can be taken to reduce similar incidents of mass Hate Crimes/ Domestic Terrorism.

When I see discussions like this about how a horrific mass-murder will impact presidential elections one way or another, it really is extremely distasteful at this time, and frankly sounds like the total stereotype of a partisan political operative living inside the Beltway and not Main Street America.

At least give it a few weeks before turning this horrific tragedy into a partisan political issue.

I agree with you in theory, but the fact of the matter is that this was politicized within 2 seconds of the news breaking on Twitter. That's just how the world is these days, for better or for worse (actually, just for worse.) Censoring it here isn't going to accomplish anything.

[Virginiá]

Wanted to post this because every time this question is asked anywhere, it always seems to be simple answers and no good discussion on why or how candidates/politicians lose/gain support.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/11/19/how-terrorist-attacks-can-change-opinions-and-elections-including-the-2016-election/

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Less trustful of Muslims / immigrants and less favorable of pro-either policies. Benefits Trump.

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Obama's approval rating took a dip around the time of the Paris attacks and then continued to go up for the next few+ months until it hit its 53% peak in March. They also took a dip after the San Bernardino shooting but recovered quickly. Personally, I don't think there is going to be a rally around effect, but Obama's job approval ratings will probably recover well before the election. If this doesn't stick to Obama, it won't stick to Hillary, especially with contrasted with Trump, whose reckless behavior and complete lack of knowledge is a huge liability for him in this election and even more so with terrorist attacks dominating in peoples minds.

Also, semi-related but, I don't understand why people think Republicans are better with national security. First, they got us into these 2 wars, which spawned ISIS. Second, how is the party that is so quick to go to war and attack heavy considered more capable? Do people just like this Alpha behavior, regardless if it is stupid and self-defeating? Attack smart, not like a crazed bloodthirsty wolf.

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Not best for Hillary. If you go by the results of this limited study, then being a Democratic woman (as opposed to Democratic man) lowers support.

Clinton is considered hawkish, while Trump seems mixed. His position (assuming it hasn't flipped 12 times in the last 24 hours) seems to be non-intervention, maybe? So I'm not sure how voters will judge/compare the two on this. However, there have been polls showing voters thinking Trump would handle terrorism better than Clinton, so...

--

My opinion is this:

1. The election is 5 months away, and it took much less time for the opinion changes after San Bernardino / Paris attacks to dissipate and things to return to normal. You could argue this was bigger, but I don't think that factor comes into play unless the causalities are much higher.

2. Part of Clinton's campaign against Trump involves painting him as reckless and dangerous in terms of the military / threats (eg can't be trusted with the codes), and she has a very strong case on that. If Trump gets a bump from this, I doubt it will last long if she presses hard on his complete lack of knowledge and temperament. This has to be one of his biggest liabilities and one that is not normal on such a scale for most presidential candidates. It can be used against him when people value those attributes the most.

3. Trump has been creating so much trouble for himself on such a frequent and consistent basis that I'm almost positive that he will quickly squander whatever political benefits this may have for him. He'll go on another racist tirade, or he'll make some new offensive / polarizing proposal, or steal candy from a baby, etc etc, and his poll numbers will go right back down - Even faster now as Clinton & friends flood the airwaves with crafty & damaging attack ads.

For these reasons, I don't think Clinton will lose support for this in November. She may for the next month or so, but 5 more months of Trump monopolizing media with his offensive comments / idiocy will fix that right up.

[IceSpear]

This event has blown the lid off the political conversation among my friends/family, on FB and elsewhere. Even liberals I know are in open rebellion against Obama for refusing to name the enemy. Despite my politics, most of my friends are white, Catholic or mainline Protestant MBAs and lawyers. These were supposed to be the sane, #NeverTrump people who'll be part of Clinton's winning coalition in November, but a huge number of them are at least reconsidering their support of Clinton because of her association with Obama. This is the Obama generation that voted for him in '08 who are rejecting him and literally echoing Rudy Giuliani's "Obama doesn't love America like you and I do" line. They said this kind of thing would help Trump, but based on the small slice of America that I see, the impact is even bigger than I thought it would be.

This may very well cost Obama and Clinton support, but I don't think Kentucky anecdotes are very good evidence of that. You guys are no more representative of the country at large than Massachusetts.

[MK]

Wanted to post this because every time this question is asked anywhere, it always seems to be simple answers and no good discussion on why or how candidates/politicians lose/gain support.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/11/19/how-terrorist-attacks-can-change-opinions-and-elections-including-the-2016-election/

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Less trustful of Muslims / immigrants and less favorable of pro-either policies. Benefits Trump.

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Obama's approval rating took a dip around the time of the Paris attacks and then continued to go up for the next few+ months until it hit its 53% peak in March. They also took a dip after the San Bernardino shooting but recovered quickly. Personally, I don't think there is going to be a rally around effect, but Obama's job approval ratings will probably recover well before the election. If this doesn't stick to Obama, it won't stick to Hillary, especially with contrasted with Trump, whose reckless behavior and complete lack of knowledge is a huge liability for him in this election and even more so with terrorist attacks dominating in peoples minds.

Also, semi-related but, I don't understand why people think Republicans are better with national security. First, they got us into these 2 wars, which spawned ISIS. Second, how is the party that is so quick to go to war and attack heavy considered more capable? Do people just like this Alpha behavior, regardless if it is stupid and self-defeating? Attack smart, not like a crazed bloodthirsty wolf.

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Not best for Hillary. If you go by the results of this limited study, then being a Democratic woman (as opposed to Democratic man) lowers support.

Clinton is considered hawkish, while Trump seems mixed. His position (assuming it hasn't flipped 12 times in the last 24 hours) seems to be non-intervention, maybe? So I'm not sure how voters will judge/compare the two on this. However, there have been polls showing voters thinking Trump would handle terrorism better than Clinton, so...

--

My opinion is this:

1. The election is 5 months away, and it took much less time for the opinion changes after San Bernardino / Paris attacks to dissipate and things to return to normal. You could argue this was bigger, but I don't think that factor comes into play unless the causalities are much higher.

2. Part of Clinton's campaign against Trump involves painting him as reckless and dangerous in terms of the military / threats (eg can't be trusted with the codes), and she has a very strong case on that. If Trump gets a bump from this, I doubt it will last long if she presses hard on his complete lack of knowledge and temperament. This has to be one of his biggest liabilities and one that is not normal on such a scale for most presidential candidates. It can be used against him when people value those attributes the most.

3. Trump has been creating so much trouble for himself on such a frequent and consistent basis that I'm almost positive that he will quickly squander whatever political benefits this may have for him. He'll go on another racist tirade, or he'll make some new offensive / polarizing proposal, or steal candy from a baby, etc etc, and his poll numbers will go right back down - Even faster now as Clinton & friends flood the airwaves with crafty & damaging attack ads.

For these reasons, I don't think Clinton will lose support for this in November. She may for the next month or so, but 5 more months of Trump monopolizing media with his offensive comments / idiocy will fix that right up.

I do think this would help Trump ,but your right his campagain isnt smart enough to harness it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Read Clinton's statement on FB and Instagram. It's pretty clear, but unlike the right-wingers she acknowledged an LGBTI venue was specifically targeted and that the system that permitted someone who isn't allowed on a plane to purchase two lethal firearms AND said that international terror networks need to be defeated.

The usual suspects just want to make this a Muslim thing because recognizing the humanity of LGBTI Americans is apparently too difficult.

F***, I really didn't want to say that, but I just need to.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

This event has blown the lid off the political conversation among my friends/family, on FB and elsewhere. Even liberals I know are in open rebellion against Obama for refusing to name the enemy. Despite my politics, most of my friends are white, Catholic or mainline Protestant MBAs and lawyers. These were supposed to be the sane, #NeverTrump people who'll be part of Clinton's winning coalition in November, but a huge number of them are at least reconsidering their support of Clinton because of her association with Obama. This is the Obama generation that voted for him in '08 who are rejecting him and literally echoing Rudy Giuliani's "Obama doesn't love America like you and I do" line. They said this kind of thing would help Trump, but based on the small slice of America that I see, the impact is even bigger than I thought it would be.

How did Naso hack into your account?

[Santander]

This event has blown the lid off the political conversation among my friends/family, on FB and elsewhere. Even liberals I know are in open rebellion against Obama for refusing to name the enemy. Despite my politics, most of my friends are white, Catholic or mainline Protestant MBAs and lawyers. These were supposed to be the sane, #NeverTrump people who'll be part of Clinton's winning coalition in November, but a huge number of them are at least reconsidering their support of Clinton because of her association with Obama. This is the Obama generation that voted for him in '08 who are rejecting him and literally echoing Rudy Giuliani's "Obama doesn't love America like you and I do" line. They said this kind of thing would help Trump, but based on the small slice of America that I see, the impact is even bigger than I thought it would be.

This may very well cost Obama and Clinton support, but I don't think Kentucky anecdotes are very good evidence of that. You guys are no more representative of the country at large than Massachusetts.

I should add that was mostly based on what I saw on FB, as it was Sunday. Most of these people live on the East Coast or Chicago, but I agree they're not representative of the country because they're all white.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I think this could have helped him slightly, but because of the way he responded to the events, in the typical insensible and disrespectful narcissistic Trump fashion, it'll probably end up working against him. Some Bernie diehards in my Facebook are now willing to vote for HRC to stop him because of today.

The trouble is, for every Bernie supporter this brings over to Clinton, there's a conservative who hated Trump but now agrees with his blister on terrorism and has decided to support him in the fall.

I mean, look at what Green Line was posting today and tell me that the political conversation around the events of last night would not at least help polarize the country and push people like him back into Trump's orbit. You can't, really.

So who wins?

[ElectionsGuy]

I would definitely say Trump but his tweets don't help.

[Hammy]

I think this could have helped him slightly, but because of the way he responded to the events, in the typical insensible and disrespectful narcissistic Trump fashion, it'll probably end up working against him. Some Bernie diehards in my Facebook are now willing to vote for HRC to stop him because of today.

The trouble is, for every Bernie supporter this brings over to Clinton, there's a conservative who hated Trump but now agrees with his blister on terrorism and has decided to support him in the fall.

I mean, look at what Green Line was posting today and tell me that the political conversation around the events of last night would not at least help polarize the country and push people like him back into Trump's orbit. You can't, really.

So who wins?

The end result is likely that this will have little to no impact beyond potential short-term Trump boost by a point or so. May be a some undecideds that answer Trump out of emotional reaction, but settle back to undecided after a few days or weeks of Trump continuing to be himself.

[RedPrometheus]

I think this could have helped him slightly, but because of the way he responded to the events, in the typical insensible and disrespectful narcissistic Trump fashion, it'll probably end up working against him. Some Bernie diehards in my Facebook are now willing to vote for HRC to stop him because of today.

The trouble is, for every Bernie supporter this brings over to Clinton, there's a conservative who hated Trump but now agrees with his blister on terrorism and has decided to support him in the fall.

I mean, look at what Green Line was posting today and tell me that the political conversation around the events of last night would not at least help polarize the country and push people like him back into Trump's orbit. You can't, really.

So who wins?

The end result is likely that this will have little to no impact beyond potential short-term Trump boost by a point or so. May be a some undecideds that answer Trump out of emotional reaction, but settle back to undecided after a few days or weeks of Trump continuing to be himself.

This. And one should never underestimate Trump's ability to do damage to himself.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I know that this is a presidential elections board, but I f'ing hate that this thread exists.  I'm still in horror at this brutal crime against humanity, and haven't moved on to which politician can capitalize on it.

[Holmes]

I would definitely say Trump but his tweets don't help.

This, and now he's saying Obama had a reason not to prevent this or that he was involved and is calling on him to resign... Trump is shooting himself in both feet. I mean, it's fine, and it's interesting to watch, like a train wreck. Of course his more hardcore supporters will eat it up (like the birthers ate up his attacks on Obama and his alleged birthplace), but I think the rest of Americans will be turned off.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I know that this is a presidential elections board, but I f'ing hate that this thread exists.  I'm still in horror at this brutal crime against humanity, and haven't moved on to which politician can capitalize on it.

It's horrifying to admit, and I hate that I'm saying this, but... I am almost getting desensitized to it. I won't speak for anyone else. And this one has definitely hit closer to home than a lot of the others, for obvious reasons, but... it just happens way too damn often.

[Holmes]

I know that this is a presidential elections board, but I f'ing hate that this thread exists.  I'm still in horror at this brutal crime against humanity, and haven't moved on to which politician can capitalize on it.

It's horrifying to admit, and I hate that I'm saying this, but... I am almost getting desensitized to it. I won't speak for anyone else. And this one has definitely hit closer to home than a lot of the others, for obvious reasons, but... it just happens way too damn often.

I had a good cry yesterday. We were targeted in a safe space during Pride. We'll move on but I won't forget.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I know that this is a presidential elections board, but I f'ing hate that this thread exists.  I'm still in horror at this brutal crime against humanity, and haven't moved on to which politician can capitalize on it.

It's horrifying to admit, and I hate that I'm saying this, but... I am almost getting desensitized to it. I won't speak for anyone else. And this one has definitely hit closer to home than a lot of the others, for obvious reasons, but... it just happens way too damn often.

I had a good cry yesterday. We were targeted in a safe space during Pride. We'll move on but I won't forget.

I performed in an opera on Sunday, and there were several LGBT people involved, including an Episcopal priest (he had some good words for me when I asked him about it privately).  I think needing to put everything aside and and clear your head to make art happen can help, though afterward it all came crashing back to me as part of wave of post-performance comedown.

[Tender Branson]

I just came home from work and turned on CNN and Hillary was just giving an A+ speech IMO somewhere in Ohio.

But it could also help Trump of course.

[°Leprechaun]

I know that this is a presidential elections board, but I f'ing hate that this thread exists.  I'm still in horror at this brutal crime against humanity, and haven't moved on to which politician can capitalize on it.

I agree 100%. This thread is totally inappropriate, but unfortunately not surprising.
It doesn't surprise me how quickly something like this is turned political.

[whanztastic]

I know that this is a presidential elections board, but I f'ing hate that this thread exists.  I'm still in horror at this brutal crime against humanity, and haven't moved on to which politician can capitalize on it.

This attack happened because our politics let it happen.

Our politics don't allow the ATF to use computerized trace data, so their gun library is ran on paper and we don't know how guns are trafficked across state lines.

Our politics allowed the assault weapon ban, even with its faults, to lapse, allowing a civilian to possess the AR-15 used Sunday.

Our politics don't allow the CDC to use federal statistics to track the impact of guns on health safety nationwide.

Our politics allow toddlers to shoot their grandparents, because of the hypothetical tyranny of a future federal government.

Our politics say it is more acceptable to ban words and peoples than tools of destruction.

Talking about politics in a time like this is important. Choosing not to talk about gun politics is also a political choice.

[°Leprechaun]

whanztasic,

Of course, the issues matter, but the tone of this thread and the opening post are inappropriate. Making it a political issue is ugly because politics is ugly and rather than
focus on the horror of it all and what can be done about it, there is a quick rush for each
side to blame each other, rather than talking about working together to stop this kind of
violence. "Who does it help more" as if that is all that matters? Really?
Who does it hurt? It should hurt anyone with the least bit of compassion regardless of
their political views. My first reaction when I heard about it was that I didn't even want to think about it, because I know how the news handles these kinds of stories, they exploit people's emotions and get them even more upset than they would be if they were to pay less attention. The media are such attention seekers.

[whanztastic]

whanztasic,

Of course, the issues matter, but the tone of this thread and the opening post are inappropriate. Making it a political issue is ugly because politics is ugly and rather than
focus on the horror of it all and what can be done about it, there is a quick rush for each
side to blame each other, rather than talking about working together to stop this kind of
violence. "Who does it help more" as if that is all that matters? Really?
Who does it hurt? It should hurt anyone with the least bit of compassion regardless of
their political views. My first reaction when I heard about it was that I didn't even want to think about it, because I know how the news handles these kinds of stories, they exploit people's emotions and get them even more upset than they would be if they were to pay less attention. The media are such attention seekers.

I'd agree with this as well.

[°Leprechaun]

whanztasic,

Of course, the issues matter, but the tone of this thread and the opening post are inappropriate. Making it a political issue is ugly because politics is ugly and rather than
focus on the horror of it all and what can be done about it, there is a quick rush for each
side to blame each other, rather than talking about working together to stop this kind of
violence. "Who does it help more" as if that is all that matters? Really?
Who does it hurt? It should hurt anyone with the least bit of compassion regardless of
their political views. My first reaction when I heard about it was that I didn't even want to think about it, because I know how the news handles these kinds of stories, they exploit people's emotions and get them even more upset than they would be if they were to pay less attention. The media are such attention seekers.

I'd agree with this as well.

Good, then we're basically in agreement. I agree with you about guns.
Those who support guns say we need more, I see say we need fewer.

[tallguy23]

The attack was against LGBT people. LGBT people are voting for Clinton.

If this attack were held in a mall or a park, it might help Trump in the short term. His responses thus far are not presidential at all though.

[NOVA Green]

Honestly, I find not only the thread title/poll extremely disturbing, considering this is the largest act of Domestic Terrorism since Oklahoma City, and the the most massive Hate Crime committed in a single day, but also shocked on how so many on this forum are jumping in right off the bat to "discuss" how this will all play out in the Presidential Election.

Right now, families are on death watch and taking turns in the emergency room hoping that their loved ones will survive to see another day, which from personal experience is a process that could take months,  and all some people want to talk about is will it help/hurt Trump/Clinton.... Yes political decisions and policies have consequences, yes this is major event in the history of America and the intersections of guns/LGBT/ISIS/Immigration have a bunch of people riled up over some traditional hot-button domestic political items.

Ultimately once again we have a crazy American nutjob that decides to go out in a blaze of glory and commit mass murder because he was mentally unstable and decided to target a minority population that he despised, because his own life had become a failure, and it is extremely easy to buy an AR-15 within a few days in Florida.

Instead of a thread about how will this impact the 2016 elections, maybe there should be a thread about how this despicable massacre impacts us personally as individuals and Americans, and what measures can be taken to reduce similar incidents of mass Hate Crimes/ Domestic Terrorism.

When I see discussions like this about how a horrific mass-murder will impact presidential elections one way or another, it really is extremely distasteful at this time, and frankly sounds like the total stereotype of a partisan political operative living inside the Beltway and not Main Street America.

At least give it a few weeks before turning this horrific tragedy into a partisan political issue.

I agree with you in theory, but the fact of the matter is that this was politicized within 2 seconds of the news breaking on Twitter. That's just how the world is these days, for better or for worse (actually, just for worse.) Censoring it here isn't going to accomplish anything.

Sigh... I guess you're right unfortunately on how the political world / media cycles go these days, and was probably only to be expected in this election year, with hot button issues like ISIS, "Muslim Bans" immigration, and guns being front and center for a major part of the election cycle.

Still, I don't recall previous major terrorist attacks / hate crimes like 9/11, Oklahoma City, and Columbia, SC getting politicized so quickly while America was collectively grieving and processing, so yeah it is a sad reflection on how these horrific atrocities can get hyper-partisan barely 24 hours after.

Good chance I'll head down to the Pride Parade downtown this weekend in solidarity with the community and all Americans to send a message of unity in the face of hatred and bigotry a the time of this national tragedy.

[NOVA Green]

Honestly, I find not only the thread title/poll extremely disturbing, considering this is the largest act of Domestic Terrorism since Oklahoma City, and the the most massive Hate Crime committed in a single day, but also shocked on how so many on this forum are jumping in right off the bat to "discuss" how this will all play out in the Presidential Election.

Right now, families are on death watch and taking turns in the emergency room hoping that their loved ones will survive to see another day, which from personal experience is a process that could take months,  and all some people want to talk about is will it help/hurt Trump/Clinton.... Yes political decisions and policies have consequences, yes this is major event in the history of America and the intersections of guns/LGBT/ISIS/Immigration have a bunch of people riled up over some traditional hot-button domestic political items.

Ultimately once again we have a crazy American nutjob that decides to go out in a blaze of glory and commit mass murder because he was mentally unstable and decided to target a minority population that he despised, because his own life had become a failure, and it is extremely easy to buy an AR-15 within a few days in Florida.

Instead of a thread about how will this impact the 2016 elections, maybe there should be a thread about how this despicable massacre impacts us personally as individuals and Americans, and what measures can be taken to reduce similar incidents of mass Hate Crimes/ Domestic Terrorism.

When I see discussions like this about how a horrific mass-murder will impact presidential elections one way or another, it really is extremely distasteful at this time, and frankly sounds like the total stereotype of a partisan political operative living inside the Beltway and not Main Street America.

At least give it a few weeks before turning this horrific tragedy into a partisan political issue.

Your medal is in the mail, but this is a political forum so it makes sense that we would talk about the political implications.

Point taken Cory--- I guess people deal with things in different ways, and it is in the 2016 Presidential Election section of the forum and not over in one of the other sections/threads, so totally get it while this would be something that people want to discuss.

As for medals, they should go to the real heroes like Edward Sotomayor Jr who took a bullet in the back after getting his boyfriend out safely, several of the initial first cops to respond that likely prevented an more deaths, and all of those trapped in that horrific situation, that took selfless actions to help save the lives of others....