Which GE election result is most likely?

[ProgCon]

Using the tool at fivethirtyeight I created three unique possible results for the 2016 Presidential Election. One showed Trump losing the popular vote, but winning the electoral vote. The other two showed Clinton winning both the popular and electoral vote, although to different degrees.

Results 1

College-Educated White: 54% Republican, 83% Turnout
Non-College-Educated White: 69% Republican, 59% Turnout
Black: 89% Democrat, 59% Turnout
Hispanic/Latino: 76% Democrat, 55% Turnout
Asian/Other: 71% Democrat, 54% Turnout

Popular Vote: 49.3% Clinton (D), 48.9% Trump (R), 1.8% Others
Electoral Vote: 273 Trump (R), 265 Clinton (D)

Result 2

College-Educated White: 50% Democrat, 80% Turnout
Non-College-Educated White: 68% Republican, 64% Turnout
Black: 90% Democrat, 63% Turnout
Hispanic/Latino: 77% Democrat, 55% Turnout
Asian/Other: 72% Democrat, 55% Turnout

Popular Vote: 52.0% Clinton (D), 46.3% Trump (R), 1.7% Others
Electoral Vote: 332 Clinton (D), 206 Trump (R)

Result 3

College-Educated White: 53% Democrat, 84% Turnout
Non-College-Educated White: 61% Republican, 65% Turnout
Black: 94% Democrat, 63% Turnout
Hispanic/Latino: 81% Democrat, 55% Turnout
Asian/Other: 73% Democrat, 55% Turnout

Popular Vote: 56.3% Clinton (D), 42.0% Trump (R), 1.7% Others
Electoral Vote: 424 Clinton (D), 114 Trump (R)

[RaphaelDLG]

2, 1, 3

[Ljube]

Of the offered, option 2.

[President Johnson]

2 > 1 > 3

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Result 2 with AZ

[IceSpear]

2 is almost exactly my current prediction (including the PV), except with NC going to Hillary.

[Xing]

2, obviously. Trump's not winning WI, and he's definitely not losing TX.

[KingSweden]

2

[TDAS04]

2 by far.

[Senator-elect Spark]

1 looks ideal

[SingingAnalyst]

2 looks spot-on. I ran a predicton on 538.com as well with slightly different assumptions, but the state votes were exactly the same, with Clinton winning the PV 51.1%-47.2%.

[Sir Mohamed]

The second. The other two have a chance of less than one percent to actually occur.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I really want the third to happen, but I expect the second is the most likely.

I'm going to hang my head in shame when Hoosiers choose Donald Trump, and show the world that we're one of the stupid states.

[Tartarus Sauce]

2 is almost exactly my current prediction (including the PV), except with NC going to Hillary.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

One other thing: "Others" is going to be a whole lot more than 1.8%.  More than 5%, or possibly 10%.

[tallguy23]

These are all plausible, but 2 is most likely.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

2, 1, 3

[LLR]

Tossup between 2 and 3

[Vosem]

2 is the most likely of these. A separate "Mormon" adjuster is really necessary. Utah isn't voting R>60 for Trump.

[IceSpear]

One other thing: "Others" is going to be a whole lot more than 1.8%.  More than 5%, or possibly 10%.

It'll likely be more than 1.8%, but I highly doubt it cracks 5% either.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

At this point between 2 and 3, but much closer to 2.