Trump's RCP Average
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Author Topic: Trump's RCP Average  (Read 1466 times)
Dr. Arch
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« on: June 14, 2016, 06:45:46 PM »
See the video below for added effect:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHv5jgXz9I8
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2016, 07:12:57 PM »
I wish RCP included lines for the third party candidates, it might show more context.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2016, 07:28:21 PM »
Excellent news - the Clinton bump after clinching is beginning to take hold.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #3 on: June 14, 2016, 07:30:09 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Illini on June 14, 2016, 07:28:21 PM
Excellent news - the Clinton bump after clinching is beginning to take hold.

Key word: bump. Bounce.
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Vosem
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« Reply #4 on: June 14, 2016, 07:31:11 PM »
There has not yet been a Clinton bounce like there was a Trump bounce. Clinton has gained nothing. Trump has lost a significant chunk to Undecided/Other. Trump's month-long bounce is very visible. Clinton's has not begun.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #5 on: June 14, 2016, 07:31:31 PM »
Quote from: FreePhoenix on June 14, 2016, 07:30:09 PM
Quote from: Mr. Illini on June 14, 2016, 07:28:21 PM
Excellent news - the Clinton bump after clinching is beginning to take hold.

Key word: bump. Bounce.

Looks more like a Trump collapse than a Clinton bounce.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: June 14, 2016, 07:37:33 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on June 14, 2016, 07:30:37 PM
Looks like the Judge Curiel comments are really sinking after a week of coverage.  However, if the events in Orlando have any impact, we likely won't see that until after the 21st.  I think we are heading back into Clinton +6-12 territory for the near future.

I think Trump has thrown away any political gain he could have gotten from the Orlando tragedy with his reaction.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #7 on: June 14, 2016, 08:17:37 PM »

Quote from: Fusionmunster on June 14, 2016, 07:12:57 PM
I wish RCP included lines for the third party candidates, it might show more context.

I was looking at this chart this morning.
The current average includes the most newest survey that was conducted by Bloomberg Politics National Poll. This poll was released just today, and shows Hillary with a large lead.
This poll also includes Johnson.
The survey numbers are ....

Hillary 49
Trump 37
Johnson 9

This is a +12 lead for Hillary !

Link to survey : http://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rc0NltTBR0ug/v0
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: June 14, 2016, 08:19:35 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on June 14, 2016, 07:30:37 PM
Looks like the Judge Curiel comments are really sinking after a week of coverage.  However, if the events in Orlando have any impact, we likely won't see that until after the 21st.  I think we are heading back into Clinton +6-12 territory for the near future.

It's not about the judge, it's about Hillary clinching the nomination.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #9 on: June 15, 2016, 05:29:34 AM »
We should all know to reserve serious judgments until September. The convention bounces will have subsided by then.
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afleitch
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« Reply #10 on: June 15, 2016, 05:34:30 AM »
Quote from: FreePhoenix on June 15, 2016, 05:29:34 AM
We should all know to reserve serious judgments until September. The convention bounces will have subsided by then.

Sam Wang has calculated that statistically February polls ate the best you get till August.

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/22/february-national-polls-are-the-best-you-get-until-august/
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Doimper
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« Reply #11 on: June 15, 2016, 05:39:49 AM »
Bahaha, that video. Perfect.
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Desroko
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« Reply #12 on: June 15, 2016, 05:47:02 AM »
Quote from: afleitch on June 15, 2016, 05:34:30 AM
Quote from: FreePhoenix on June 15, 2016, 05:29:34 AM
We should all know to reserve serious judgments until September. The convention bounces will have subsided by then.

Sam Wang has calculated that statistically February polls ate the best you get till August.

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/22/february-national-polls-are-the-best-you-get-until-august/

I asked him to do this four years ago. Lazy. Wink
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