Scenario: New States

[Wells]

Let's say that before the 2020 election, in about June 2017, these places become states:

Puerto Rico
US Virgin Islands
Northern Mariana Islands
American Samoa
Guam
Washington, DC

Basically, for the first four, they get electoral votes which actually count towards the election and their citizens become US citizens. For all of them, they get two voting Senators and one (in PR's case 7) voting representatives in the House. These representatives and senators would be elected in 2018. What would the effect be on US politics on the national level?

[LLR]

PR, DC, VI, and GU would doubtlessly be very Democratic, not so sure about AS and MP.

[Wells]

PR, DC, VI, and GU would doubtlessly be very Democratic, not so sure about AS and MP.

Looked at the politics of both. American Samoa is very Democratic. However, the Mariana Islands leans Republican! So, in terms of Senators, the Democrats would gain 10, Republicans would gain 2. There would be a less pronounced effect on the House of Representatives and the electoral college.

If the Senate in 2018 was a major Republislide in states that are states now, this would be the perfect antidote for the Dems.

[LLR]

Actually, I'd call it 9-3 because Guam is basically a tossup.

[Wells]

Actually, I'd call it 9-3 because Guam is basically a tossup.

Okay. Let's say after 2018, minus the old territories, the Senate is 54-46 for the Republicans. With the territories, it would be 57-55 for the Republicans. In the House, let's say that there is a split of 8-2 for new representatives. Let's also say there is a 240-195 split in the House for the Republicans after the 2018 midterms. With the territories, it would be 242-203 for the Republicans. The Democrats would get thirteen new electoral votes. The Republicans would get three. And if Guam is a tossup, then there would be three more tossup votes. Pretty much a Democrat dream. Why haven't they tried this?

[Boston Bread]

There was an attempt to give DC a voting seat in congress in 09 that went no where because of GOP obstruction.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

There was an attempt to give DC a voting seat in congress in 09 that went no where because of GOP obstruction.

I wish we didn't do that; my ideal solution to DC is to grant Eleanor Holmes-Norton voting rights and give DC full statehood rights short of actual statehood. Then there is the Senate (I really don't want the Senate to have 102 Senators). The 51st state would have Class I, II Senators. Give them the opportunity to vote in Maryland's Class I elections (next election in 2018), and Virginia's Class II elections (next election in 2020).

That's a real moderate hero opinion right there!

[Kingpoleon]

Puerto Rico would lean GOP. The center-right Republican affiliate is about as popular as the centrist Democratic affiliate. With a center-left Democratic nominee, it would be Tilt/Lean R.

[Heisenberg]

There was an attempt to give DC a voting seat in congress in 09 that went no where because of GOP obstruction.

I wish we didn't do that; my ideal solution to DC is to grant Eleanor Holmes-Norton voting rights and give DC full statehood rights short of actual statehood. Then there is the Senate (I really don't want the Senate to have 102 Senators). The 51st state would have Class I, II Senators. Give them the opportunity to vote in Maryland's Class I elections (next election in 2018), and Virginia's Class II elections (next election in 2020).

That's a real moderate hero opinion right there!

Absolutely agree on the part about 102 Senators. I love the way it is, 100 members is perfect for a Senate. I really want it to stay that way. However, my opinion would be perfhaps allow DC to vote for both Maryland seats, since Maryland surrounds DC on three sides. And make their non-voting member a full voting member as one of the 435 House members.

[Heisenberg]

Puerto Rico would lean GOP. The center-right Republican affiliate is about as popular as the centrist Democratic affiliate. With a center-left Democratic nominee, it would be Tilt/Lean R.

I'm not too sure about. Most of their prominent politicians (aside from Luis Fortuño) identify nationally as Democrats (such as their Governor and Delegate in the a House, IIRC). And it strikes me as a place that's more left leaning on immigration, the economy, and the role of government. But I'd need to do more research. I hear partisanship in Puerto Rico is hotly debated at the national level. Is that right?