Presidential Election Poll - Presidential Race Too Close To Call

[Clyde1998]

Hello everyone. I'm back and I'm conducing an opinion poll ahead of the Presidential election. It includes a voting intention question and couple of questions on international relations.

The poll can be found here: link.

[DKrol]

Nice poll!

#VoteLeave

[Classic Conservative]

Nice poll!

#VoteLeave

[NeverAgain]

Nice Poll.

While I'd like to have the UK 'partner' with us, I think it is best for global trade and stability if they stay in the EU.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Nice Poll.

While I'd like to have the UK 'partner' with us, I think it is best for global trade and stability if they stay in the EU.

[Clyde1998]

Nice poll!

#VoteLeave

Nice Poll.

While I'd like to have the UK 'partner' with us, I think it is best for global trade and stability if they stay in the EU.

Thanks everyone.

I'll close the poll tomorrow - to give people the last chance to vote in this poll.

[Leinad]

Excellent poll, Clyde! Great to see you back!

[Clyde1998]

Excellent poll, Clyde! Great to see you back!

Thank you.

[Clyde1998]

FIRST SET OF RESULTS
Responses: 59
Weighting: Weighted by party membership in each region

Should the UK remain a member of the EU or leave the EU?
Atlasian voters are narrowly in favour of the United Kingdom remaining in the European Union. The biggest support came from Labour members, who split over 3:1 towards remain. Federalists were almost 3:1 in favour of the UK leaving. People in the North and South of the country backed the UK staying in the EU, while people in the West were narrowly opposed.

Remain - 55.1%
Leave - 44.9%

North: Remain - 58.6%; Leave - 41.4%
South: Remain - 55.5%; Leave - 44.5%
West: Remain - 49.2%; Leave - 50.8%

Lab: Remain - 77.0%; Leave - 23.0%
Fed: Remain - 24.9%; Leave - 75.1%
CR: Remain - 62.5%; Leave - 37.5%
Oth: Remain - 57.6%; Leave - 42.4%

If the UK votes to leave the EU, should Atlasia offer the UK a trade deal similar to the Atlasia-Canadian Common Market Agreement?
There was overwhelming support for a Common Market Agreement between the UK and Atlasia, in the event the UK withdraws from the EU, with 7 in 10 voters saying they would vote in favour. Interestingly, Labour voters, who were most in favour of the EU remaining in the bloc, where most opposed to a Common Market Agreement. The result of this question may give politicians in both countries something to ponder, should the UK vote to leave the EU on Thursday.

Yes - 70.1%
No - 29.9%

North: Yes 76.8%; No 23.2%
South: Yes 81.8%; No 18.2%
West: Yes 41.9%; No 58.1%

Lab: Yes 59.2%; No 40.8%
Fed: Yes 75.9%; No 24.1%
CR: Yes 100.0%; No 0.0%
Oth: Yes 72.3%; No 27.7%

[Clyde1998]

Presidential Race Too Close To Call
Responses: 59
Weighting: Weighted by party membership in each region

Voting Intention
The race for President is being classed as too close to call, as Truman is narrowly ahead of Leinad by three points going into the final week of campaigning. However, up to as many as 18% of people are undecided - the final week could make the difference between who wins and loses the election. The others and independents are, unsurprisingly, the most likely to be undecided.

Truman - 51.5%
Leinad - 48.5%

North: Truman - 64.5%; Leinad - 35.5%
South: Truman - 39.3%; Leinad - 60.7%
West: Truman - 44.7%; Leinad - 55.3%

Lab: Truman - 97.2%; Leinad - 2.8%
Fed: Truman - 4.7%; Leinad - 95.3%
CR: Truman - 22.2%; Leinad - 77.8%
Oth: Truman - 61.7%; Leinad - 38.3%

[Goldwater]

Darn, I missed my chance to vote in this poll.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Thanks Clyde for doing this looking good for this weekend.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

We litteraly used this poll's regional breakdown to set our regional targets.

Clyde Poll
Leinad's %     Leinad Targets      Final Results
South  61%     65%                      67%
West 55%       55%                      73%
North 35%      40%                      43%

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Leinad overpolled in all three. Impressive!

[Clyde1998]

The key phrase from my poll:

However, up to as many as 18% of people are undecided

I would have conducted a later poll, but i told people that this would be my only/final poll, as I thought the election was going to be last week.

Lab: Truman - 97.2%; Leinad - 2.8%
Fed: Truman - 4.7%; Leinad - 95.3%
CR: Truman - 22.2%; Leinad - 77.8%
Oth: Truman - 61.7%; Leinad - 38.3%

Actual result:
Lab: Truman - 96.9% (-0.3) on 66.0% turnout
Fed: Truman - 0.0% (-4.7) on 76.1% turnout
CR: Truman - 11.1% (-9.7) on 88.9% turnout
Oth: Truman - 41.7% (-20.0) on 60.0% turnout

If I re-weight my poll to the actual number of votes by party in each region: Leinad was ahead by 52-48.

The big issue was getting the correct result from the smaller parties. Civic Renewal was strongly affected by polling 100% Truman in the North, although this was based on one vote. Making it 50-50 there puts CR on 12.5% Leinad total, much closer to the final result. Others is where my figures fell apart - and I think I had a larger sample of "left leaning" others than I expected. Therefore in my future polls, I'll include a question about where people see themselves on the political spectrum to help weight the polls correctly.

[Clyde1998]

We litteraly used this poll's regional breakdown to set our regional targets.

Clyde Poll
Leinad's %     Leinad Targets      Final Results
South  61%     65%                      67%
West 55%       55%                      73%
North 35%      40%                      43%

Worryingly, for me, I appear to have put the result from the South and the West the wrong way around when I published the results. Although, I guess me making errors in coping things is going to be more likely when I publish a poll at midnight.

That helps explain the huge variation in changes between each region:
North - 35% --> 43% (+8)
South - 55% --> 67% (+12; +8 otherwise)
West - 61% --> 73% (+12; +18 otherwise)

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

We actually had 82.2% turnout. It makes no sense to count turnout out of a pie that includes two people who cannot vote by law (the two who joined too late).


So 37/45 = 82.2%

Our highest since 2014 in both percentage and raw turnout.

[Clyde1998]

We actually had 82.2% turnout. It makes no sense to count turnout out of a pie that includes two people who cannot vote by law (the two who joined too late).

So 37/45 = 82.2%

Our highest since 2014 in both percentage and raw turnout.

I didn't realise that there were two who couldn't vote. I am a bit overly distracted by the political state in the UK at the moment though.

Eitherway, the Federalist turnout was much higher than the Labour turnout.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Another interesting thing I kept track of throughout was that Leinad's vote, despite including more Federalists at the end than Truman had Laborites, the most Federalists composed Leinad's vote was 64%. Throughout the election it ranged from 58%-64%. Truman spent the first half of the election with 80% of his vote coming from Labor, and though ELP and indies pushed him down into the 70's, he was still more dependent on his own Party and than Leinad was on the Federalists. A situation we endeavored to maintain even as most of the conservative indies had already voted and particularly during the stretch of votes that took Leinad from 41 to 51. That was probably the most decisive batch of voters during the whole election.

[Clyde1998]

Another interesting thing I kept track of throughout was that Leinad's vote, despite including more Federalists at the end than Truman had Laborites, the most Federalists composed Leinad's vote was 64%. Throughout the election it ranged from 58%-64%. Truman spent the first half of the election with 80% of his vote coming from Labor, and though ELP and indies pushed him down into the 70's, he was still more dependent on his own Party and than Leinad was on the Federalists. A situation we endeavored to maintain even as most of the conservative indies had already voted and particularly during the stretch of votes that took Leinad from 41 to 51. That was probably the most decisive batch of voters during the whole election.

Yes. This is one of the biggest changes to Presidential elections compared to other recent ones. Labour always used to be able to count on The People's Party for votes, meaning that they weren't reliant on their own support to get votes in Presidential elections.