Washington Examiner predicts Kirk will be re-elected

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/nevertrump-movement-should-shift-focus-to-senate/article/2593933

[Gass3268]

k

[Xing]

Except that it looks like Republican donors are doing just the opposite, and starting to give up on Kirk. Republicans need to make up their minds; are they going to embrace Trump, or distant themselves from him? Both are dangerous options, but not committing to one of them will hurt them even more.

[publicunofficial]

Cool. Literally everyone else predicts the opposite.

[Vosem]

I doubt it, but with all hope they're totally correct. Very unpredictable election year, God is great, and so on and so forth.

[PAK Man]

I still say the margin will be closer than anybody's predicting. Kirk somehow always found ways to win reelection back in IL-10, even when he wasn't supposed to.

I can confirm he has staff on the ground in his old district, too, as my mother spoke to one of his campaign workers today (she lives in IL-09, in the portion that used to be right on the border of the 10th). He's obviously still hoping his old base of support on the North Shore will come to bat for him.

[Heisenberg]

Well, Duckworth is a pretty bad candidate with almost zero appeal outside of Cook County. I still think this race is a Tossup. Kirk is certainly more likely to win reelection than Johnson or Ayotte.

Absolutely. If Republicans can't win Florida or Nevada, this is great backup.

[Gass3268]

I look forward to the people of Illinois correcting their 6 year mistake this November.

[Green Line]

Kirk is definitely still the underdog, but he's gotten a lot of good press since he denounced Trump.  He'll probably lose because of the nature of the state, but it won't be a blowout and he'll probably win nearly everything outside of Cook again.

[RINO Tom]

Illinois isn't that smart.

[Miles]

Illinois isn't that smart.

Yeah, it certainly wasn't smart of the people to throw out their Champion in 2014

[RINO Tom]

Illinois isn't that smart.

Really?

IL voters blame Madigan, not Rauner for impasse by a wide margin

The poll found that voters blame Madigan by a decisive 21-point margin, 55-34 percent, with just 9 percent saying "both" and a mere 2 percent saying they were undecided.

Who is to blame for the impasse? Rauner or Madigan?

Chicago: Rauner (52%-35%)
Suburban Cook County: Madigan (54%-36%)
Collar counties: Madigan (64%-27%) (!)
Downstate: Madigan (59%-29%)

Men: Madigan (62%-29%)
Women: Madigan (55%-38%)

Yeah, our voters know who to blame, but what do they do about it? 

[publicunofficial]

Well, Duckworth is a pretty bad candidate with almost zero appeal outside of Cook County. I still think this race is a Tossup. Kirk is certainly more likely to win reelection than Johnson or Ayotte.

According to you:

Every D Candidate: Overrated, has issues

Every R Candidate: Underrated, electoral mastermind

[Ebsy]

WAA is a notorious junk pollster, so take any conclusions with a grain of salt.

[Kingpoleon]

Well, Duckworth is a pretty bad candidate with almost zero appeal outside of Cook County. I still think this race is a Tossup. Kirk is certainly more likely to win reelection than Johnson or Ayotte.

According to you:

Every D Candidate: Overrated, has issues

Every R Candidate: Underrated, electoral mastermind

From my understanding, most of Atlas thinks:

Johnson and Toomey are awful, Ayotte and Hassan are meh, McGinty is pretty bad, Strickland is mediocre at best, Feingold and Portman are pretty good.

Kirk seems to be pretty polarizing, and not many people discuss Masto, Kirkpatrick, or McCain.

[BuckeyeNut]

lolk

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Um, y'all know that Washington Examiner is the home of the 'great un-skewer'?

[Heisenberg]

Well, Duckworth is a pretty bad candidate with almost zero appeal outside of Cook County. I still think this race is a Tossup. Kirk is certainly more likely to win reelection than Johnson or Ayotte.

According to you:

Every D Candidate: Overrated, has issues

Every R Candidate: Underrated, electoral mastermind

No.

Overrated candidates: Duckworth, Murphy, Strickland, Jolly, CLC, DeSantis, Judge
Underrated candidates: Kander, Kirk, Portman, Toomey, Climbing Maggie, maybe Ron Johnson (?)

Am I the only member who agrees with you that the New Hampshire race is Safe D (or cherry close to Safe D)?

[MT Treasurer]

Am I the only member who agrees with you that the New Hampshire race is Safe D (or cherry close to Safe D)?

Yes. We have too many delusional Rockefeller-type Republicans here who still think this is the year 2000.

[Heisenberg]

Am I the only member who agrees with you that the New Hampshire race is Safe D (or cherry close to Safe D)?

Yes. We have too many delusional Rockefeller-type Republicans here who still think this is the year 2000.

People tell me I'm wrong when I say Ayotte is toast, but she is, that's the truth. Not too long ago she was slightly up in polls, now she's down and Maggie will only continue to climb.
And I definately meant to say "very close" and not "cherry close". Stupid auto correct (I typed that on my phone).

[MT Treasurer]

Am I the only member who agrees with you that the New Hampshire race is Safe D (or cherry close to Safe D)?

Yes. We have too many delusional Rockefeller-type Republicans here who still think this is the year 2000.

People tell me I'm wrong when I say Ayotte is toast, but she is, that's the truth. Not too long ago she was slightly up in polls, now she's down and Maggie will only continue to climb.
And I definately meant to say "very close" and not "cherry close". Stupid auto correct (I typed that on my phone).

Of course you're right. Most people here also think that Trump can beat Clinton in NH (and rate the state a Tossup) just because Bush won it barely in 2000 (despite being up 15+ points in NH polls in late 1999/early 2000). I'm not even saying that New England as a whole is gone for the GOP, just NH. I expect ME and CT to be more competitive at the presidential level some day (they already are at the statewide level).

[Kevin]

Am I the only member who agrees with you that the New Hampshire race is Safe D (or cherry close to Safe D)?

Yes. We have too many delusional Rockefeller-type Republicans here who still think this is the year 2000.

People tell me I'm wrong when I say Ayotte is toast, but she is, that's the truth. Not too long ago she was slightly up in polls, now she's down and Maggie will only continue to climb.
And I definately meant to say "very close" and not "cherry close". Stupid auto correct (I typed that on my phone).

Of course you're right. Most people here also think that Trump can beat Clinton in NH (and rate the state a Tossup) just because Bush won it barely in 2000 (despite being up 15+ points in NH polls in late 1999/early 2000). I'm not even saying that New England as a whole is gone for the GOP, just NH. I expect ME and CT to be more competitive at the presidential level some day (they already are at the statewide level).

What makes you say that ME and CT are going to competitive for the GOP someday? I'm just curious?

Personally I'd expect NH to be more competitive for the GOP then ether of those two.

[Heisenberg]

Am I the only member who agrees with you that the New Hampshire race is Safe D (or cherry close to Safe D)?

Yes. We have too many delusional Rockefeller-type Republicans here who still think this is the year 2000.

People tell me I'm wrong when I say Ayotte is toast, but she is, that's the truth. Not too long ago she was slightly up in polls, now she's down and Maggie will only continue to climb.
And I definately meant to say "very close" and not "cherry close". Stupid auto correct (I typed that on my phone).

Of course you're right. Most people here also think that Trump can beat Clinton in NH (and rate the state a Tossup) just because Bush won it barely in 2000 (despite being up 15+ points in NH polls in late 1999/early 2000). I'm not even saying that New England as a whole is gone for the GOP, just NH. I expect ME and CT to be more competitive at the presidential level some day (they already are at the statewide level).

What makes you say that ME and CT are going to competitive for the GOP someday? I'm just curious?

Personally I'd expect NH to be more competitive for the GOP then ether of those two.

Connecticut: Not too long ago the GOP had 3/5 House seats there. Now they have none. They should try to go for a compromise map where they have a decent hold on one while ceding the other 4. Malloy is very unpopular, but he was elected twice in GOP wave years. Maine, however, is more competitive. ME-02 is trending Republican and even elected a Republican congressman. LePage got lucky with Cutler in 2010, but he would've won even without Cutler in 2014. The legislature is competitive (somewhat). Don't expect it to be too Republican-friendly in Presidential elections, though.

[This account no longer in use.]

Am I the only member who agrees with you that the New Hampshire race is Safe D (or cherry close to Safe D)?

Yes. We have too many delusional Rockefeller-type Republicans here who still think this is the year 2000.

People tell me I'm wrong when I say Ayotte is toast, but she is, that's the truth. Not too long ago she was slightly up in polls, now she's down and Maggie will only continue to climb.
And I definately meant to say "very close" and not "cherry close". Stupid auto correct (I typed that on my phone).

Of course you're right. Most people here also think that Trump can beat Clinton in NH (and rate the state a Tossup) just because Bush won it barely in 2000 (despite being up 15+ points in NH polls in late 1999/early 2000). I'm not even saying that New England as a whole is gone for the GOP, just NH. I expect ME and CT to be more competitive at the presidential level some day (they already are at the statewide level).

What makes you say that ME and CT are going to competitive for the GOP someday? I'm just curious?

Personally I'd expect NH to be more competitive for the GOP then ether of those two.

Something something angry NH women

[Free Bird]

Saying Ayotte is toast is like pbrewer saying that Toomey is toast.