Battleground ad buys: Clinton spends in 8 states

[dspNY]

Hillary Clinton placed ad buys with money from her own campaign (not her PAC money) in the following states:

Florida
Ohio
Virginia
New Hampshire
Iowa
Nevada
Colorado
North Carolina

She has not bought ads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan as of yet (to play defense) or in Arizona, Georgia, Indiana and Missouri (to go further on the offensive).

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/743189266595975169

[dspNY]

Why not Pennsylvania?

She must be looking good there. She probably leads there by more than what the public polling is saying

[dspNY]

Why not Pennsylvania?

She must be looking good there. She probably leads there by more than what the public polling is saying

NH looks way better for her, though, and she's still wasting spending money there.

Remember Clinton is stronger with base Democrats than unreliable Sanders-type independents. Pennsylvania has a far higher percentage of base Democrats statewide than New Hampshire

[HillOfANight]

Why not Pennsylvania?

She must be looking good there. She probably leads there by more than what the public polling is saying

NH looks way better for her, though, and she's still wasting spending money there.

Hurting Ayotte so she has a stronger Senate.

[dspNY]

Democratic margins in PA the last 6 elections:

2012: 5.4%
2008: 10.3%
2004: 2.5%
2000: 4.2%
1996: 9.2%
1992: 9.0%

It's just an incredibly hard state for the GOP to flip with a built-in Democratic advantage in Philly and Pittsburgh. It's also very inelastic with a low percentage of swing voters.

On the other hand, the New Hampshire margins:

2012: 5.5%
2008: 9.6%
2004: 1.6%
2000: -1.2% (Bush won it)
1996: 10%
1992: 1.2%

NH has voted to the right of PA in 4 of the last 6 elections and had virtually the same 2012 margin. It also does not have a built-in minority vote that is reliably Democratic. Clinton can simply run a base campaign to win PA but needs independents to win NH

[Xing]

Keep in mind that this doesn't mean she'll only ever spend in these states. It's probably that these are her biggest priorities in a close election. I'm surprised she's concerned about Nevada, but it might be that Democrats want to make sure that they can hold their most vulnerable senate seat, and possibly pick up 1-2 house seats.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/clinton-to-unleash-tv-hell-on-trump-224399

In omitting Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin from the buy while including North Carolina, a state Obama won in 2008 but not 2012, the Clinton campaign joins Priorities — which this month added North Carolina to its buy — in implying that it doesn’t believe the Trump argument that he can win over sufficient numbers of Rust Belt, working class white males to reset the map.

[RaphaelDLG]

I think this is a great list except for the omission of Pennsylvania.  Clinton is significantly favored there, but it has so many EVs, is trending R, and has an important Senate race.  Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona are a waste of money for now.

[dspNY]

I think this is a great list except for the omission of Pennsylvania.  Clinton is significantly favored there, but it has so many EVs, is trending R, and has an important Senate race.  Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona are a waste of money for now.

Not Arizona because McCain is in a mortal struggle to retain his Senate seat and said in a private fundraiser that he will be in the fight of his political life. Trump is a big drag on him in AZ and Latino voters there are waiting in big numbers to turn out against him

[ProudModerate2]

I think this is a great list except for the omission of Pennsylvania.  Clinton is significantly favored there, but it has so many EVs, is trending R, and has an important Senate race.  Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona are a waste of money for now.

I somewhat agree, but at this time it is appropriate to omit Pennsylvania.
trump is currently doing horrible, so the Hillary campaign is probably waiting for future Penn polls, before deciding on any spending there.

[Illiniwek]

Looking good to me!

[IceSpear]

Including NH/NV but but PA is odd.

[RJEvans]

ABC says it's a six-week, 8-figure buy.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hillary-clinton-launches-massive-general-election-ad-blitz/story?id=39887789

If that's true, for six weeks Priorities USA will spend $20m+ to attack Trump and Hillary for America will spend $10m+ on improving Clinton's image. $30m+ for Clinton, a couple of million for Trump, perhaps?

[Ljube]

Including NH/NV but but PA is odd.

[Dr. Arch]

I hate almost everything about this general election.

[HAnnA MArin County]

NC instead of AZ is a bit surprising to me.  That, combined with the exclusion of PA and inclusion of NV tells me that they are seeing something very different in their internal polling.  Trump massively overperformed in resort areas (except for Orlando) in the primary almost regardless of the local demographics.  Perhaps they are seeing something disconcerting in Vegas?

Trump probably threatened to close his businesses in Vegas or forced the CEOs to tell their employees that they would be out of a job if they didn't vote for him, and then told the CEOs that they would be fired, too.

He does have Chris Christie at his side, after all. Paging Bridget Anne Kelly.

[Xing]

I'm guessing that Arizona isn't on here because it's less of a priority. North Carolina is definitely more winnable, and while Hillary could potentially win Arizona if she clobbers Trump, it's definitely going to stay Republican in a competitive race. Same goes for the senate race: It'll only flip if Democrats are crushing Republicans nationally, and have already gained 5-6 senate seats. It won't be the tipping point race.

[pbrower2a]

I hate almost everything about this general election.

The current President had a tough act to undo. The next President has a tough act to follow.

[publicunofficial]

The Democratic Convention in Philly, plus the first Obama-Clinton campaign stop being in Green Bay next week, might explain the lack of PA and WI buys. As for Michigan, they probably don't think it's something to worry about right now.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/first-read-clinton-begins-battleground-ad-blitz-n593566
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/743497266833547264
Nate Cohn of NYT wonders why she's not investing in some swing state cities... Comments say she's trying to win indies, not the base.

Virginia: $1.6 million (6/16-7/25)
Norfolk: $553K
Richmond: $536K
Roanoke: $261K
Tri-Cities: $77K
Harrisonburg: $55K
Parkersburg: $47K
Charlottesville: $44K
Wheeling: $24K

Ohio: $1.3 million (6/16-6/27)
Cleveland: $580K
Cincinnati: $393K
Dayton: $159K
Youngstown: $121K
Wheeling: $42K

Iowa: $1 million (6/16-7/25)
Des Moines: $430K
Cedar Rapids: $413K
Omaha: $155K
Ottumwa: $37K

Colorado: $926K (6/16-7/4)
Denver: $729K
Colorado Springs: $198K

New Hampshire: $764K (6/16-7/25)
Boston (Manchester): $764K

Florida: $563K (6/16-6/27)
West Palm Beach: $318K
Mobile: $156K
Panama City: $89K

North Carolina: $723K (6/14-6/27)
Raleigh: $409K
Greensboro: $160K
Greenville: $154K

Nevada: $473K (6/16-7/4)
Reno: $246K
Las Vegas: $227K (6/28-7/4 only)

[Angel of Death]

Colorado

Wow, she's more in with the memers than one might think.

[Lincoln Republican]

Very strategically sound on the part of Hillary and the Democrats.

Light years ahead of the Republican Presidential campaign which has as yet to raise significant funds and even start serious campaigning strategically in swing states.

[IceSpear]

A Morning Consult poll from a few months ago showed Trump leading Clinton (and outperforming other Republicans) in NV, for what it's worth.

Polls in NV are notoriously terrible though.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/743819167455903744
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/first-read-ryan-instructs-republicans-follow-their-conscience-trump-n594291

Clinton's battleground ad blitz is now up to $17M

Ohio: $4.5 million
North Carolina: $3.6 million
Florida: $3 million
Virginia: $1.8 million
Nevada: $1.6 million
Colorado: $1.1 million
Iowa: $1.1 million
New Hampshire: $830k

[Holmes]

They're really pushing hard in North Carolina. Could either mean their numbers are lower than they want them to be, or they're high and they want to maintain them throughout the summer and into the fall.