IA-PPP: Clinton 44 Trump 41

[HillOfANight]

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2016/06/16/poll-shows-clinton-grassley-leading-iowa/85947420/

Clinton 44
Trump 41
Undecided 15

Trump favorable 33/64
Clinton favorable 42/55

[Crumpets]

But muh whites!

[Chaddyr23]

Honestly, I always felt this would be the most likely Midwestern state to swing hard toward Trump.

[Eraserhead]

Looks like a battleground as it usually is.

[Doimper]

I expect that this gap will increase once ads featuring Trump shouting "How stupid are the people of Iowa?" start airing

[DrScholl]

Trump likely will not rise very much from that number between now and November. That is close to his ceiling.

[Redban]

Trump likely will not rise very much from that number between now and November. That is close to his ceiling.

McCain in 2008 (the GOP's lowest year in our generation) still managed 44%, yet you feel Trump won't get 42% in 2016, a year in which the economy is poor, terrorism is threatening, and the Democrats hold the White House?

[Angrie]

I expect that this gap will increase once ads featuring Trump shouting "How stupid are the people of Iowa?" start airing

Good point. That is some very good material for Clinton for Iowa specifically. Her campaign and supporting super pacs should make slightly edited versions of all of their ads to include that clip in every single Clinton ad that runs in Iowa.

[Mallow]

Trump likely will not rise very much from that number between now and November. That is close to his ceiling.

McCain in 2008 (the GOP's lowest year in our generation) still managed 44%, yet you feel Trump won't get 42% in 2016, a year in which the economy is poor, terrorism is threatening, and the Democrats hold the White House?

In Iowa? Their unemployment rate is low compared to the nation at 3.9%.

And the incumbent party has positive favorable ratings.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Really want to see what numbers PPP has nationally right now.

Their last national poll was Clinton +4 and all their state polls are consistent with that.

[Ebsy]

Well, thank you PPP for actually polling Iowa.

[Redban]

Trump likely will not rise very much from that number between now and November. That is close to his ceiling.

McCain in 2008 (the GOP's lowest year in our generation) still managed 44%, yet you feel Trump won't get 42% in 2016, a year in which the economy is poor, terrorism is threatening, and the Democrats hold the White House?

In Iowa? Their unemployment rate is low compared to the nation at 3.9%.

And the incumbent party has positive favorable ratings.

Unemployment rate isn't the only metric. Plus, in 2008 their unemployment rate was 5.0 when the national average was nearly 7.0; yet Iowa still swung heavily towards Obama. Sometimes people will vote according to the welfare of the nation, not the welfare of their state.

[Boston Bread]

What we need next is a poll of CO (none since Feb)

[HillOfANight]

Obama approval is soaring. Your points are invalid.

[Wells]

Obama approval is soaring. Your points are invalid.

Bill Clinton was pushing 60% approval rating when Al Gore struggled to get a tie with George W. Bush in 2000.

Al Gore distanced himself from Clinton. Do you really think Hillary will do the same to Obama?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Obama approval is soaring. Your points are invalid.

Bill Clinton was pushing 60% approval rating when Al Gore struggled to get a tie with George W. Bush in 2000.

That's because Gore decided to distance himself from Clinton. In case you missed it, Hillary is doing the opposite with Obama.

Plus of course the level of partisanship is much higher today and that benefits Democrats.

[Xing]

Trump likely will not rise very much from that number between now and November. That is close to his ceiling.

McCain in 2008 (the GOP's lowest year in our generation) still managed 44%, yet you feel Trump won't get 42% in 2016, a year in which the economy is poor, terrorism is threatening, and the Democrats hold the White House?

In Iowa? Their unemployment rate is low compared to the nation at 3.9%.

And the incumbent party has positive favorable ratings.

Unemployment rate isn't the only metric. Plus, in 2008 their unemployment rate was 5.0 when the national average was nearly 7.0; yet Iowa still swung heavily towards Obama. Sometimes people will vote according to the welfare of the nation, not the welfare of their state.

Actually, relative to the nation as a whole, it didn't swing that much at all. It was 1.7% more Democratic in 2004, and 2.3% more Democratic in 2008.

Anyway, it's nice to finally see an Iowa poll. It's not a great fit for either candidate, so I expect a competitive race.

[Mallow]

Trump likely will not rise very much from that number between now and November. That is close to his ceiling.

McCain in 2008 (the GOP's lowest year in our generation) still managed 44%, yet you feel Trump won't get 42% in 2016, a year in which the economy is poor, terrorism is threatening, and the Democrats hold the White House?

In Iowa? Their unemployment rate is low compared to the nation at 3.9%.

And the incumbent party has positive favorable ratings.

Unemployment rate isn't the only metric. Plus, in 2008 their unemployment rate was 5.0 when the national average was nearly 7.0; yet Iowa still swung heavily towards Obama. Sometimes people will vote according to the welfare of the nation, not the welfare of their state.

By what comprehensive metric is the economy poor in Iowa?

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

YES, FINALLY AN IOWA POLL!

Most polls also severly underestimated Ernst in 2014, so I expect IA to be a pure Tossup in this year's election. Trump might even have a slight advantage there if the election is very close. I definitely expect IA to be more Republican than the nation for the first time since 1980.

Lol when I seen a Iowa poll I thought"TN Volunteer is gonna love this"

[Boston Bread]

YES, FINALLY AN IOWA POLL!

Most polls also severly underestimated Ernst in 2014, so I expect IA to be a pure Tossup in this year's election. Trump might even have a slight advantage there if the election is very close. I definitely expect IA to be more Republican than the nation for the first time since 1980.

IA was more Republican than the nation in 2000.

[Redban]

Trump likely will not rise very much from that number between now and November. That is close to his ceiling.

McCain in 2008 (the GOP's lowest year in our generation) still managed 44%, yet you feel Trump won't get 42% in 2016, a year in which the economy is poor, terrorism is threatening, and the Democrats hold the White House?

In Iowa? Their unemployment rate is low compared to the nation at 3.9%.

And the incumbent party has positive favorable ratings.

Unemployment rate isn't the only metric. Plus, in 2008 their unemployment rate was 5.0 when the national average was nearly 7.0; yet Iowa still swung heavily towards Obama. Sometimes people will vote according to the welfare of the nation, not the welfare of their state.

By what comprehensive metric is the economy poor in Iowa?

Did anyone allege that the economy is poor in Iowa?

[HillOfANight]

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-15/national-poll-part-2

a majority, 55 percent, say they're personally better off than at the start of 2009, when President Barack Obama took office. That's the highest level for that metric since the poll first asked the question in December 2010.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKCN0Z01I7

U.S. retail sales point to strong domestic demand

[they don't love you like i love you]

This is actually better for Trump than I'd expect with his current national numbers although you can probably chalk that up to both parties having a pretty high floor in Iowa than anything to do with Trump.

[Green Line]

PPP is inflating Trumps numbers in order to discredit the #NeverTrump movement.  They will start showing big margins once the convention is over.  Don't believe it!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

PPP is inflating Trumps numbers in order to discredit the #NeverTrump movement.  They will start showing big margins once the convention is over.  Don't believe it!

This is ridiculous.