"Must Win" Trump States

[The Other Castro]

Assuming we start with a 2012 map, what states are absolutely must win for Trump for him to pass 270 EV?

[ElectionsGuy]

Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. The only other scenario is Trump winning VA + IA + CO while losing Pennsylvania, super unlikely.

[Mallow]

Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. The only other scenario is Trump winning VA + IA + CO while losing Pennsylvania, super unlikely.

This is the correct response.

As for Iowa (and Virginia), I suspect Trump will do better in PA than in IA (and VA), which would make IA (and VA) irrelevant.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. Not on their but still an absolute must win North Carolina.  

[Mallow]

I'll also note that for the several people who voted ONLY OH and FL, that won't be enough for a Trump victory. No states that aren't on the list are going to put him over the top if he loses all the ones on the list except for OH and FL.

[Xing]

Ohio, Florida, and either Pennsylvania or Iowa/Virginia. Not to mention all of the Romney states.

[Dereich]

Only Ohio. I've seen maps of Trump winning without FL, PA, and the others but every map assumes Trump wins Ohio. It's not likely that he wins without FL or PA, but paths do exist. Without OH? Nah.

[Mallow]

Only Ohio. I've seen maps of Trump winning without FL, PA, and the others but every map assumes Trump wins Ohio. It's not likely that he wins without FL or PA, but paths do exist. Without OH? Nah.

No, no reasonable path exists.

[/]

Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. The only other scenario is Trump winning VA + IA + CO while losing Pennsylvania, super unlikely.

He would only need one of IA and CO.

[Ljube]

Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. The only other scenario is Trump winning VA + IA + CO while losing Pennsylvania, super unlikely.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. Not on their but still an absolute must win North Carolina.  

[Tartarus Sauce]

Only Ohio. I've seen maps of Trump winning without FL, PA, and the others but every map assumes Trump wins Ohio. It's not likely that he wins without FL or PA, but paths do exist. Without OH? Nah.

Except if he loses Florida and Pennsylvania, the only other swing states he has any hope of winning are Ohio and North Carolina, which would leave him short. The demographic breakdown of the other states are even more favorable to the Democrats than Florida and Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is the state that squeaks him over 270 in order of partisan balance, and it's still a slight Democratic lean state

[President Johnson]

Ohio, Florida and Colorado.

[Sbane]

He needs to win FL and OH. He cannot win without them. Even if he wins PA, he will lose if he loses FL. FL+OH+VA/IA is one path or FL+OH+VA/CO is another pass. And of course the most likely Trump win is FL+OH+PA.

[Redban]

Michigan + anything (NH, IA, Maine's 2nd district, CO) is a slight possibility if PA falls to Hillary. The latest poll, which admittedly came from a dubious source (Detroit News), had Clinton up by only 4%.

I don't like the odds for Trump in this Michigan route, but it's there nonetheless.

[Higgs]

Only Florida and Ohio.

[RJEvans]

If we assume OH, PA, VA, FL, IA and CO are the six most competitive states and Clinton wins VA and Trump wins CO, then Trump MUST win FL and PA. If Clinton wins VA and CO then Trump MUST win FL, OH and PA.

BUT, if we add AZ and assume Clinton wins AZ and VA, then Trump MUST win OH, PA, FL and CO.

So the map says Trump MUST win these states:

1. FL (if Clintons wins VA and FL, she wins)
2. PA (if Clinton wins VA and PA, she wins)
3. OH (if Clinton wins VA and OH, Trump will need FL, PA, IA and CO to win)

[RaphaelDLG]

Only Ohio. I've seen maps of Trump winning without FL, PA, and the others but every map assumes Trump wins Ohio. It's not likely that he wins without FL or PA, but paths do exist. Without OH? Nah.

This.  Though Florida just barely misses the list.

[Nyvin]

The only feasible paths for Trump is winning Ohio+Florida then either Pennsylvania by itself, or Virginia and a couple other swing states (probably Colorado and Iowa). 

Winning Pennsylvania is by far the easier option.

[Chief Justice Keef]

I'd put Ohio and Pennsylvania at the top of his most important swing states, then Iowa and Florida. He can only remain competitive if he wins the former two.

[Fargobison]

Ohio- If Trump isn't winning there then he isn't winning anywhere else in the rust belt.

[emcee0]

Utah

[5280]

If we assume OH, PA, VA, FL, IA and CO are the six most competitive states and Clinton wins VA and Trump wins CO, then Trump MUST win FL and PA. If Clinton wins VA and CO then Trump MUST win FL, OH and PA.

BUT, if we add AZ and assume Clinton wins AZ and VA, then Trump MUST win OH, PA, FL and CO.

So the map says Trump MUST win these states:

1. FL (if Clintons wins VA and FL, she wins)
2. PA (if Clinton wins VA and PA, she wins)
3. OH (if Clinton wins VA and OH, Trump will need FL, PA, IA and CO to win)

If Trump wins CO, he's winning AZ. Not the other way around.

[Skye]

Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. The only other scenario is Trump winning VA + IA + CO while losing Pennsylvania, super unlikely.

He doesn't have to win CO if he has won OH and FL.

[Vosem]

I misinterpreted the thread title as meaning that the Trump campaign put out a statement that was nothing but the words "Must Win".