Who wins?
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Poll
Question: Who wins?
#1
Trump (you're D)		  
#2
Trump (you're R)		  
#3
Trump (you're I/O)		  
#4
Clinton (you're D)		  
#5
Clinton (you're R)		  
#6
Clinton (you're I/O)		  
#7
Johnson (you're D)		  
#8
Johnson (you're R)		  
#9
Johnson (you're I/O)		  
#10
All other options		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 98

Author Topic: Who wins?  (Read 1204 times)
Blue3
Starwatcher
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« on: June 18, 2016, 05:51:05 PM »
So, who will actually win the general election in November?
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Harry
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« Reply #1 on: June 18, 2016, 05:57:46 PM »
Hillary (duh)
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Ronnie
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« Reply #2 on: June 18, 2016, 05:58:35 PM »
4
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #3 on: June 18, 2016, 06:02:19 PM »
Obviously Clinton (R) as of today, though I don't believe the narrative that Trump is the next Goldwater/McGovern/Mondale/Dukakis/Dole. He'll lose, but I suspect he'll do better than McCain and worse than Romney.
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RFayette
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« Reply #4 on: June 18, 2016, 06:47:52 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on June 18, 2016, 06:22:22 PM
Quote from: ChairmanSanchez on June 18, 2016, 06:02:19 PM
Obviously Clinton (R) as of today, though I don't believe the narrative that Trump is the next Goldwater/McGovern/Mondale/Dukakis/Dole. He'll lose, but I suspect he'll do better than McCain and worse than Romney.

This.  Clinton by 4-6% at the end of the day.  She might win AZ and lose OH, though.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #5 on: June 18, 2016, 07:07:23 PM »
Clinton will win, but it will be UGLY.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: June 18, 2016, 07:30:32 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on June 18, 2016, 07:22:49 PM
Quote from: Fuzzy Bear on June 18, 2016, 07:07:23 PM
Clinton will win, but it will be UGLY.

I think this map would be the epitome of winning ugly for Clinton.  Is this what you have in mind?



Trump/Gingrich 255 EV 48.2%
Clinton/Kaine 283 EV 46.5%

Something like this is more likely:



Trump/Ginrich 279 EV, 47.7%
Clinton/Kaine 259 EV, 49.1%
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #7 on: June 18, 2016, 07:45:08 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on June 18, 2016, 07:35:58 PM
Oh, and PPP polls are likely inflating Trump through to the convention for Akin 2012 reasons.

Is there any evidence for this, though? In 2012, they used a R+9 sample instead of a D+5 one or so for the poll that showed Akin ahead of McCaskill. The PPP polls from this year don't seem that fishy to me.
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RR1997
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« Reply #8 on: June 18, 2016, 07:49:51 PM »
Hillary by around 6-8 points (D)
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TDAS04
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« Reply #9 on: June 18, 2016, 07:50:06 PM »
Quote from: ChairmanSanchez on June 18, 2016, 06:02:19 PM
Obviously Clinton (R) as of today, though I don't believe the narrative that Trump is the next Goldwater/McGovern/Mondale/Dukakis/Dole. He'll lose, but I suspect he'll do better than McCain and worse than Romney.

Agreed.

I think Hillary will win by 5 or 6 points in the PV, and carry all the Obama 2012 states plus North Carolina.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #10 on: June 18, 2016, 10:46:27 PM »
Where did all the Republicans go?
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #11 on: June 18, 2016, 11:37:58 PM »

Long time passing.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #12 on: June 19, 2016, 12:45:19 AM »
And Trump is losing among the Republicans! Wow.

86-11-3 BTW.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #13 on: June 19, 2016, 05:38:25 AM »
DONALD JOHN TRUMP will win.

The reasons are explained in these two videos (not pro-Trump videos).

- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LibRNYJmZ-I
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5yzhO-JNnSk
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #14 on: June 19, 2016, 06:53:56 PM »
Quote from: Speaker Washington on June 19, 2016, 05:57:59 PM
Quote from: TN volunteer on June 18, 2016, 05:53:25 PM
I'm probably crazy for saying this, but I have this gut feeling that Trump will narrowly eke out a victory. Whoever wins, I'm pretty confident that this election will either be a landslide or very, very close. No 2012 redux, however.

I think that's a good analysis.

It is solid analysis, TNvolunteer is probably crazy.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #15 on: June 19, 2016, 06:54:53 PM »
Clinton (R), by probably a 5-7% margin.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #16 on: June 19, 2016, 07:01:09 PM »
I'll be bold: Clinton wins by more than 10 points.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #17 on: June 19, 2016, 07:02:45 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on June 19, 2016, 06:57:05 PM

Uh, I said in that post that I wouldn't rule out a Clinton landslide either. Not to mention that it wasn't even an #analysis, just a random guess.

Actually didn't read your prediction/guess, just agreeing with the part where you said you're probably crazy.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #18 on: June 19, 2016, 07:08:02 PM »
Clinton by a hanging chad.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #19 on: June 19, 2016, 07:14:02 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on June 19, 2016, 07:04:16 PM
Quote from: The Unbearable Invicibility of Hillary Clinton on June 19, 2016, 07:02:45 PM
Actually didn't read your prediction/guess, just agreeing with the part where you said you're probably crazy.

Yawn. No one cares, dingoboy.

Fine, I'll never agree with anything you ever say again.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #20 on: June 20, 2016, 05:35:46 AM »
Angry New Hampshire Women picked them, every one. When will they ever learn? When will they ever learn?
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