Trump is in big polling trouble

[Wisconsin+17]

Being down double digits coming into June is not a great state for the Trump Campaign.

Truman was down 13 in August, and came back to win.
HW Bush was down 13 in June and 17 in July and came back to win.

Trump right now is down 11. He's in better shape than the Truman and the HW Bush campaign. But, he's also running out of time to close the gap.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Thanks for this insight.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Obama please drone

[Suck my caulk]

A.) This election has been different than any previous election.

B.) Trump's final and best chance to close the gap are at the three presidential debates, which do not begin until September. Ideally, the Trump campaign will attempt, and succeed, at closing the gap in June, but if they're not able to, it should not be discredited.

[Wisconsin+17]

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I don't see it. It is rare for a campaign to be down double digits this late and win. Only two did it - Truman, and HW Bush. Both were consistently down in the polls as Trump has been. Truman was down all year, and the only poll he won was election day. He came into November down 5.

HW Bush recovered by September 1st.

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There are no campaigns, save Truman that won being down September 1st.

If Trump is down by 5 by September, he's finished.

[Virginiá]

Even if Trump has a dozen more chances to close the gap, he will likely blow them all. So far, he has had plenty of chances to turn this thing around and instead he somehow made his situation worse almost every time.

At this point it seems like all Clinton has to do is sit back, run ads + GOTV, provoke Trump on twitter once in awhile and watch him continue imploding. Hillary must be celebrating on a nightly basis for Trump tanking this election just by being himself.

[MK]

The convention will be important for Trump and the debates (the initial one).  He could still turn it around to edge out a victory here ,but don't bet on it.  Trump cares more about himself than actually winning , I know that seems odd to say.   

Its amazing the more insiders and staff push him to correct things he doubles down on doing something even more stupid.   


To the Hillary hacks.. your candidate is one that nobody cares for or really wants as president.  Its like the job interview were you think you found your guy ,but he then does something stupid while you are interviewing the other person.  Now you have no choice but to just hire the runner -up.   

The silver lining is that Crooked Hillary will be a 1 term president, but all of the #nevertrumpers are pretty much out of contention.   

[BlueSwan]

Ehhh...lots of knee jerk reactions to a single poll. Hillary is likely not up by double digits, nor is this race by any means over. Trump had a terrible week or two, but there are 4½ months to the election. As much as I would love for Trump to suffer a historical beating, let's not get too excited yet. We still need people to show up for Hillary.

[Phony Moderate]

Trump's hopes depend on how fluid the electorate is this time. It's probably more so than in 2004, 2008 and 2012 but less so than in, say, 1988.

[President Johnson]

Being down double digits coming into June is not a great state for the Trump Campaign.

Truman was down 13 in August, and came back to win.
HW Bush was down 13 in June and 17 in July and came back to win.

Trump right now is down 11. He's in better shape than the Truman and the HW Bush campaign. But, he's also running out of time to close the gap.

I would add Gerald Ford in 1976. He was down over 30 points in August after the convention and then came within two points on election day. He may have won without his famous gaffe at the foreign policy debate.

The Gipper was also trailing until summer/autumn of 1980 and then went on to win decisively and unseat Carter.

[Fuzzy Bear]

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I don't see it. It is rare for a campaign to be down double digits this late and win. Only two did it - Truman, and HW Bush. Both were consistently down in the polls as Trump has been. Truman was down all year, and the only poll he won was election day. He came into November down 5.

HW Bush recovered by September 1st.

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There are no campaigns, save Truman that won being down September 1st.

If Trump is down by 5 by September, he's finished.

Truman won because he challenged the GOP to enact their platform into law by Election Day.  They failed to do this because of the divide in the 1948 GOP.  Dewey was a moderate Republican; almost a liberal Republican, while the GOP Congress (both houses) consisted of mostly conservative Republicans who, in tandem with conservative Democrats, opposed the rather liberal Dewey platform.  The failure to enact the Dewey platform gave Truman a major talking point and highlighted the "Do Nothing" part of the "Do Nothing Eightieth Congress". 

Bush 41 won because his campaign was able to exploit the cultural disconnect between the national Democratic party and the cultural conservatism of white Democrats in Southern and Border states.  Some of this was unfair ("Willie" Horton ad), but some of this was just highlighting the obvious (differences in attitudes on the Pledge of Allegiance, etc.).  America is much more liberal, culturally, today than it was in 1988.

Trump could soar to the top of the polls if Hillary is indicted.  I don't believe that the Democrats will win the Presidential election if Hillary is indicted; even a replacement Democrat will have to answer for their Hillary apologia.  (The exception would be Sanders, but I don't believe even he could win under those circumstances; Trump would play the clip, "Enough of your damn e-mails!" from their early debate.)  But I don't believe Hillary is ever going to be indicted for e-mails, and I believe that anything short of that will be so politicized as to not really matter to undecided voters.

The more realistic scenario for Trump to emerge on top would be the occurrence of a new Islamic Terror incident, either on domestic soil, or in Europe of the magnitude of Paris or Brussels.  If Obama continues to refuse to say "Radical Islamic Terrorism" in the midst of this, it will push the needle Trump's way, because who else is blowing up things in the manner of Paris, or recruiting folks in the manner of San Bernadino.  Obama's "no drama" approach has, however, carried the day, long term, but the crucible of a Presidential campaign causes most folks to view things in the short term.  There is a difference between "pushing the needle" and "taking the lead".  This is especially true in the case of Trump, where, I believe, a majority of elected Republicans don't want him to win because, pure and simple, THEY, and their money sources, are free-trade/cheap labor neocons who don't sign off on Trump's policy proposals.  Just because you say you endorse Trump doesn't mean it's true.

[Desroko]

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I don't see it. It is rare for a campaign to be down double digits this late and win. Only two did it - Truman, and HW Bush. Both were consistently down in the polls as Trump has been. Truman was down all year, and the only poll he won was election day. He came into November down 5.

HW Bush recovered by September 1st.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There are no campaigns, save Truman that won being down September 1st.

If Trump is down by 5 by September, he's finished.

The more realistic scenario for Trump to emerge on top would be the occurrence of a new Islamic Terror incident, either on domestic soil, or in Europe of the magnitude of Paris or Brussels.  If Obama continues to refuse to say "Radical Islamic Terrorism" in the midst of this, it will push the needle Trump's way, because who else is blowing up things in the manner of Paris, or recruiting folks in the manner of San Bernadino.  

When terrorporn masturbation fantasies THAT ALREADY HAPPENED LAST WEEK are the "realistic" victory scenario...