Why are White Hispanics labeled as White in Exit Polls?

[hopper]

I was looking at an NYT Exit Poll from the 2012 Presidential Election out of California. The Electorate Breakdown was something like this: 55% White, 22% Hispanic, and 11% Asian. I was like that's impossible since I saw from the 2014 Census Figures that California was 37%-39 White Non-Hispanic, 38% Hispanic, and 14% Asian.  So if I added the 16% of the White Vote to the Hispanic Demographic I get the 38% number that is in the 2014 Census Numbers. If I minus the 16% of the White Vote Demographic I get near California's 2014 Census Numbers of the White Population(Non-Hispanic) in the upper 30% number. So why are White-Hispanics labeled as White in exit polls? To me its just misleading.

I should mention in the 2014 Census Figures from "USA Quickfacts" that the percentage of people in California identifying as "White or in Combination" went from 57-58% to 72% from 2010 to 2014.  That's a drastic change in just 4 years.  The nation average went from 72% to 77% from 2010 to 2014.

[TDAS04]

Hispanic turnout is lower than the general public's.  That's why their percentage of the electorate is much lower than their percentage of the population.

[tallguy23]

Also, many Hispanics in California are either under 18 or not citizens. That pushes their vote percentages down quite a bit.

[Sbane]

Also, many Hispanics in California are either under 18 or not citizens. That pushes their vote percentages down quite a bit.

Exactly. Many Hispanics don't bother with the electoral process. Of course now we got Donald Trump.....

[hopper]

Also, many Hispanics in California are either under 18 or not citizens. That pushes their vote percentages down quite a bit.

Exactly. Many Hispanics don't bother with the electoral process. Of course now we got Donald Trump.....

Most Hispanics vote in the Dem Primary because they are Democrats not in the Republican Primary because they are not generally Republicans.

[hopper]

Also, many Hispanics in California are either under 18 or not citizens. That pushes their vote percentages down quite a bit.

Still? Hispanics have been in California for decades. Sure some are not citizens I will give you that.

[tallguy23]

Also, many Hispanics in California are either under 18 or not citizens. That pushes their vote percentages down quite a bit.

Still? Hispanics have been in California for decades. Sure some are not citizens I will give you that.

They're the youngest group in the country and California is one of the youngest states.

I think I read that the average age of a U.S.-born hispanic is 18-19.

[hopper]

Also, many Hispanics in California are either under 18 or not citizens. That pushes their vote percentages down quite a bit.

Still? Hispanics have been in California for decades. Sure some are not citizens I will give you that.

They're the youngest group in the country and California is one of the youngest states.

I think I read that the average age of a U.S.-born hispanic is 18-19.

When I think of young people in CA I think of Asians for some reason and not Hispanics.

[Adam Griffin]

The discrepancy between population and electorate is explained by four things: citizenship, age, registration rates and voter apathy.

My county is 33% Latino. I'll use it as an example. Approximately 45% of Latinos in my county are non-citizens. So the 33% Latino number drops to about 20% in terms of hypothetical citizen population just when factoring in citizenship.

When you break that down by age...it's atrocious: among those over the age of 50, you're talking about the vast majority being non-citizens. Among those under 30, the vast majority are citizens. Which age groups are most likely to vote? Olds. Latinos skew younger, and like most young people, don't vote in large numbers; the youngest generations are more Latino than the older ones, and a greater share of them are going to be citizens than adults. This means a disproportionate share of your Latino citizens are going to be in the under-18 category. So factoring in age to the citizenship question means that the citizen voting-age population drops a bit more in my county: perhaps to as low as 15%.

Next, you need to take into account voter registration rates. I don't have the precise national figures available right now, but Latinos - even the youngest adult citizens - register to vote at lower rates than their peers. In my county,  the Latino share of newly registered voters lags a couple of points behind their citizen voting-age demographics (as measured by the share of 18-30 voters). It's not a huge discrepancy and it's actually equalizing in a lot of the country, but this is one factor that can still add a bit of a handicap in some parts of the country.

Then you have to factor in that Latinos have lower turnout rates even among registered voters than white and black voters. It was roughly 50% turnout in 2012, compared to 65% turnout for whites and blacks. That's going to nerf your Latino share of the electorate even more.

At the end of the day, the Latino share of the electorate in my county in 2012 was somewhere between 11-12%. That's out of a total population that's 33% Latino.

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ It's worth noting that California's numbers/discrepancy are nowhere nearly as bad as my county's, and that is largely because California has a much more established/older Latino population, and therefore a higher percentage of older Latinos who are citizens.

[hopper]

So I guess I should expect the Non-Hispanic White Electorate to continue to go down from the 55% number in 2012 in the next few decades because of younger Latino's entering the California Electorate when they turn 18 every Presidential cycle.