Will the religious left become more important than the religious right?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm basing this on two observations:

- the democratic party becoming increasingly reliant on Catholic Hispanics (who are more likely to follow left-leaning religious ideas like distributism or liberation theology) and the religious African Americans GOTV machine. (Yes, the  college educated liberals are secular, but they see people like Pope Francis as an ally, suggesting they are less angry about the religious than they were in the Bush era.

- the backlash against the evangelists of the Reagan-Bush era (who have had a string of scandals that made them look hypocrites). Plus the mood of the GOP seems to be split between quasi-randian economic rightism and angry Nationalism neither of which have a huge amount of time for the Ned Flanders type Christian. (The movement of the Mormons this cycle could be a harbinger of other similar groups within Christianity)

[dead0man]

probably, at least until the Dems start hemorrhaging traditional "lesser" groups trying to fit everybody into the tent.

[Tartarus Sauce]

By its very nature, a religious left movement would most likely target social and economic inequality more than anything else, which is already central to the Democratic platform, so I have a difficult time seeing them act as a special interest group the same way the religious right has. What I think might be more likely is that religion becomes disentangled from any attempts to politicize its values and focuses on utilizing church communities for local civic engagement.

That would be a much more welcome use of church resources than attempting to instill Christian virtues for society at large via legislation. I'm pleased to see that bullsh*t looking like it's on the way out.

[Badger]

No time soon whatsoever. the biggest differentiation in partty voting habit beyond race is frequency of church attendence, with those attending more frequently of course strongly tending GOP.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Wouldn't the religious right have higher birthrates because of the whole no birth control thing or the be fruitful and multiply thing?

[RaphaelDLG]

Is the Democratic party also going to become pro-life sometime soon?

The Republican Party relies on millions of religious single-issue anti-abortion voters.  As the generations cycle out and in, they will space much stiffer resistance to the extreme opinions on gay and transgender rights, which millennials, even devout ones, overwhelmingly favor.  But I don't think their opinions on abortion have really moved.

[Beet]

Hopefully. You can be religious and pro-choice, as black Democrats overwhelmingly prove. Even the Catholic church changed its position on an issue the Bible never mentions, as late as the 19th century. On the vast majority of common sense issues, Christians and Buddhists at least should be progressive.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

We can only hope that our nation moves in such a way, but as others have said, abortion is a massive impediment. I think we would be a lot stronger with better political choices if it flipped.

[RFayette]

No time soon whatsoever. the biggest differentiation in partty voting habit beyond race is frequency of church attendence, with those attending more frequently of course strongly tending GOP.

This.  Evangelical Christians are not flipping Dem - yes, there are some emergent Evangelicals who are more liberal, but they aren't the majority.  If you doubt this, I'd encourage you to go to those church services and you'll see why. 

[TJ in Oregon]

Highly doubtful. Too much of the US's ideological divide is Christianity vs. anti-clericalism for the majority of Christians to end up on the left. Perhaps if the Republicans went permanently Trumpish and the Democrats suddenly found their inner William Jennings Bryan but it doesn't look like we're headed quite there. If anything the shrinkage of Christianity (and subsequent national movement toward the social left) will likely make leave more of its adherents marginalized from the bullwark of secular society that makes up the base of the Democratic Party.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If it does anytime soon, it will be more because of the decline of the religious right than the rise of the religious left.  The religious right is not going to give up its issues anytime soon,  but it may give up hope of achieving its goals via the ballot box as our society unfortunately turns more secular. If that happens we could see a spiraling decline in religious right political activity.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Not so long as the left treats treat religious people like the right treats foreigners and poors.  I think instead you will see the rise of religious politics which fits less and less comfortably with both the right and the left. 

[DC Al Fine]

Not really as others have noted, the religious groups the left does have are either becoming more secular or remaining static. An increase for the religious left would have to involve defections from the GOP, and the Democratics show no indication of pursuing GOP voting traditionalists. In fact, they probably need them in the GOP tent to aid in their pursuit of prosperous suburbanites.

As TJ and Raphael noted, if anything, it's getting increasingly difficult for Evangelicals and practicing Catholics to identify with the Democratic party given their increasing emphasis on social liberalism. Barring Permanent Trumpism, I don't see any major movements.

Wouldn't the religious right have higher birthrates because of the whole no birth control thing or the be fruitful and multiply thing?

Well yes, but the difference isn't that large unless you're looking at relatively fringey groups; Quiverfull, trad Catholics, Ultraorthodox Jews etc.

[afleitch]

Neither will be particularly important.

The fastest growing and most influential, in the future, block are the 'Nones', which make up according to Pew, 36% of the 'Millennial' electorate and 1 in 4 of the general electorate. They may be a bigger voting block than the evangelicals this election cycle.

I don't think, having grown up during the 'moral panic' tinged religiously orientated campaigns of the 90's to now, younger people are going to be drawn to religious identity politics regardless of political hue.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

The religious right is going away.  The new secular right will quickly move to the left on social issues.  Social Conservatism will be increasingly associated with immigrants.  Republican politicians will rail against immigrants for their views on social issues.  Religious people just won't have much influence in either party in the future.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Neither will be particularly important.

The fastest growing and most influential, in the future, block are the 'Nones', which make up according to Pew, 36% of the 'Millennial' electorate and 1 in 4 of the general electorate. They may be a bigger voting block than the evangelicals this election cycle.

I don't think, having grown up during the 'moral panic' tinged religiously orientated campaigns of the 90's to now, younger people are going to be drawn to religious identity politics regardless of political hue.

You're assuming they stay 'nones' into adulthood and parenthood.  That is a big assumption.  It's pretty clear to me that people get more religious as they age (not more conservative, just more religious).  Plenty of former hippies and beatniks are now in the pews regularly.

That's actually an assumption in itself. Most evidence currently indicates that the current religious unaffiliation and secularism among Millenials is likely a generational trait. If they do become more religious as they age, the effect will be significantly less than it was in previous generations.

[RaphaelDLG]

The religious left is such an insanely tiny thing, it's not a major political force (sadly) like the religious right is, which constitutes like 40% of the Republican electorate.

The important elements of the Democratic coalition that are devoutly religious (i.e., AAs) don't vote with religious issues in mind (a great deal of AAs vehemently oppose homosexuality, for instance, despite the Democratic party's stance) but rather with civil rights issues in mind.