WaPo starts unskewing the Clinton/Trump polls
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  WaPo starts unskewing the Clinton/Trump polls
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Author Topic: WaPo starts unskewing the Clinton/Trump polls  (Read 540 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: June 20, 2016, 07:31:21 AM »

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/06/20/hillary-clintons-lead-in-the-polls-may-be-larger-than-it-seems-heres-why
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #1 on: June 20, 2016, 07:38:38 AM »

One of the funniest things of the 2012 was the unscewing polls phenomenon and how spectacularly wrong they were - not only did the polls not overstate Obamas support, they actually overstated Romneys support.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #2 on: June 20, 2016, 07:52:01 AM »

Remember when Romney was convinced up until very last minute he'll win because "muh unskewed polls"?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #3 on: June 20, 2016, 08:16:58 AM »

You see... THIS isn't unskewing. Unskewing was based on two core pieces of GOP delusion

a) that the 2008 electorate was a fluke, therefore, any Demographic advantage was wrong ("2008 was D+7... this poll is D+5, that can't be!!")
b) not understanding either the changes to party ID since 2008 and that Independents are increasingly not about moderate/centrist views, but rejection/protest.

The 2012 undervalued Obama by about 8-10% with Latino voters and that undervalued him in both national and state polls by 2-4%.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #4 on: June 20, 2016, 12:00:49 PM »

You see... THIS isn't unskewing. Unskewing was based on two core pieces of GOP delusion

a) that the 2008 electorate was a fluke, therefore, any Demographic advantage was wrong ("2008 was D+7... this poll is D+5, that can't be!!")
b) not understanding either the changes to party ID since 2008 and that Independents are increasingly not about moderate/centrist views, but rejection/protest.

The 2012 undervalued Obama by about 8-10% with Latino voters and that undervalued him in both national and state polls by 2-4%.

Yes. Personally as annoying as people who jump on every poll to 'unskew', the same people who point and laugh whenever anyone unskews any poll, ever, are even more annoying. As if all polls are always correct.

The fact is, if the electorate is projected to be, say, 70% white, and a poll uses a sample based on 74% white voters, then yes, you are going to get a skewed result, particularly biased towards Republicans in that case. It's not hard to understand. I've seen a few polls so far this cycle that used erroneous demographic samples like this.

Some pollsters have this funny idea that because Obama isn't on the ticket, the composition of the electorate is going to immediately revert back to 2004. So far, much of the election / census data since 2008 suggests otherwise, and convincingly at that.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #5 on: June 20, 2016, 12:08:21 PM »

I'd like to see polls released that aren't adjusted for past election results. How many cycles of rigged elections are built into these polls now?
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afleitch
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« Reply #6 on: June 20, 2016, 12:16:49 PM »

I watched this with interest 4 years ago.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=162334.msg3477632#msg3477632

It's clear specific targeted polls are better at picking up non white voting intention. As the article suggests, LatinoDecisions is one outfit to watch.
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