Will 2016 be a realigning election?

[Senator-elect Spark]

Explain.

[Boston Bread]

No, the coalitions are going to stay the same, except at the margins (ie. Mormons). The only difference is now the GOP base has someone that actually represents them.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It might have some odd trends, but they won't necessarily be continued.

[SillyAmerican]

If the electorate is as ticked off as I think it is, then yes, it will be a very interesting election year. I believe that whatever happens, the results in November will be analyzed, written about, and discussed by the political pundits for years.

[Virginiá]

Some are going to say no, because they don't believe in that sort of electoral complexity

Some are going to say yes, because perhaps they are quick to overestimate effects of certain elections (I may fit into this, though I think realignments take place over time and that no single election tends to be responsible for it all)

But my opinion is that this election will accelerate some existing trends and probably start new ones in some places, but I think it's virtually impossible right now to say which regions this all will happen in.

If I had to guess specifics, I'd say Hispanics abandon the GOP, leaving them with about 20% support or less, even in midterms. Long-term, working class white voters, specifically males, move towards GOP slightly, women move slightly to Democrats, and Nevada/Colorado/Florida experience accelerated pro-Democratic trends due to a deepening realignment and expansion of the Hispanic voter base.

[Suck my caulk]

It could have been, but now that Trump has reversed all of the progressive positions he once held (on health care, campaign finance, war, Israel, gun control, abortion, gay rights; with the exception of trade), he has become a standard mainstream Republican in many ways, and the polarization among the Democratic and Republican bases will continue.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It would be hilarious to see a major realignment + complete mormon revolt, giving us this:

(313-225 Trump)

But it isn't happening.

[LLR]

No, the battlegrounds will be the same as '08 and '12

[Redban]

The southwest moves more towards the Democrats (Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona) while the Midwest and Rust-Belt goes more towards the GOP (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, and maybe Wisconsin).

It's the only realignment possible this time.

[Deblano]

The southwest moves more towards the Democrats (Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona) while the Midwest and Rust-Belt goes more towards the GOP (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, and maybe Wisconsin).

It's the only realignment possible this time.

Pretty much this. The thing that will do most of the realingment will be who supports the two parties, and what the ideologies of the two parties are.

[nothingxv]

Yes. The GOP as we've known it is dead.

The Dems will be a free trade, pro immigration party going forward and the Republicans will be protectionist and nativist. It's amazing it's taken this long to change giving that the GOP base doesn't give a damn about trade and immigration reform despite voting for it for decades.

The southwest moves more towards the Democrats (Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona) while the Midwest and Rust-Belt goes more towards the GOP (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, and maybe Wisconsin).

It's the only realignment possible this time.

There's basically no chance Wisconsin goes GOP. They hate Trump.

[Redban]

Yes. The GOP as we've known it is dead.

The Dems will be a free trade, pro immigration party going forward and the Republicans will be protectionist and nativist. It's amazing it's taken this long to change giving that the GOP base doesn't give a damn about trade and immigration reform despite voting for it for decades.

The southwest moves more towards the Democrats (Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona) while the Midwest and Rust-Belt goes more towards the GOP (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, and maybe Wisconsin).

It's the only realignment possible this time.

There's basically no chance Wisconsin goes GOP. They hate Trump.

Yes, but Wisconsin dislikes Hillary too -- she lost big here to Bernie by nearly the same margin by which Trump lost to Cruz.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

No.  Trump's support will come from NeverDemocrats, which still live in the same Red Wall and would vote for a slug if it was the GOP nominee, and the Trumpists, which will give him bumps in the Rust Belt and Northeast, but not enough to flip any states.

It may be a landslide victory for Clinton.  It would be a landslide for any Democrat with neutral favorables.   It may also destroy the Republican party.  But unless the GOP comes out of this reinventing itself, it won't realign.

[Mr. Illini]

There will be some shifting, but it will not be a major realignment.

[Xing]

There could be some significant changes, especially in states like Utah, but who knows if they'll be permanent?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

There could be some significant changes, especially in states like Utah, but who knows if they'll be permanent?

If Utah goes Democrat, it will be a one-off protest, not a realignment.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

There could be some significant changes, especially in states like Utah, but who knows if they'll be permanent?

If Utah goes Democrat, it will be a one-off protest, not a realignment.