More likely to flip?
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  More likely to flip?
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Author Topic: More likely to flip?  (Read 773 times)
Spark
Spark498
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« on: June 19, 2016, 04:54:38 PM »

NV or CO?
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Ljube
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« Reply #1 on: June 19, 2016, 04:57:03 PM »

NV
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: June 19, 2016, 05:40:27 PM »

CO, because there actually is a chance in hell that it flips. NV is not a swing state this year.
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Figueira
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« Reply #3 on: June 19, 2016, 05:41:52 PM »

CO
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: June 19, 2016, 05:43:01 PM »

CO, NV is no longer a swing state in Presidential years.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #5 on: June 19, 2016, 05:44:11 PM »

Colorado, but neither are likely to flip.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #6 on: June 19, 2016, 05:46:02 PM »

Colorado. Both candidates are such bad fits for the state, but its just more Republican than Nevada.

In Nevada the Las Vegas area is too big, Latinos are way too Democratic in that state + he might be slightly hindered by Mormons who will sit out.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #7 on: June 19, 2016, 05:47:58 PM »

NV is not a swing state this year.

If it's not a swing state "this year", then when will it be? Trump is actually a much better fit for NV than for CO.

In midterms, it could still be competitive, but if Republicans can't do better among Latinos, NV is a blue state in presidential years. Trump is an awful fit for both, and NV is more Democratic than CO.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #8 on: June 19, 2016, 09:51:04 PM »

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evergreenarbor
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« Reply #9 on: June 20, 2016, 12:10:45 AM »

Colorado. Trump can't even dream of putting Nevada in play unless he can do something to increase his favorable ratings with Hispanics.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #10 on: June 20, 2016, 12:13:24 AM »

Easily CO (from those two choices)
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #11 on: June 20, 2016, 07:25:08 AM »

Nevada is now East California.
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PresidentTRUMP
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« Reply #12 on: June 20, 2016, 08:53:55 AM »

Colorado for sure.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #13 on: June 20, 2016, 11:52:58 AM »

NV is not a swing state this year.

If it's not a swing state "this year", then when will it be? Trump is actually a much better fit for NV than for CO.

In midterms, it could still be competitive, but if Republicans can't do better among Latinos, NV is a blue state in presidential years. Trump is an awful fit for both, and NV is more Democratic than CO.

It won't be competitive in midterms until Sandoval stops running. Since Sandoval may be running for Senate and switching jobs with Heller, I don't know that it will be competitive in 2018.

That said, I fully expect Colorado will be Tossup this election, while Nevada will be Tilt/Lean D.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #14 on: June 20, 2016, 12:10:28 PM »

Mormons and Hispanics make Nevada a very bad state for Trump.  Colorado it is.
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Mallow
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« Reply #15 on: June 20, 2016, 12:14:13 PM »

My guess: Trump would need to be winning nationally by a margin of 7.5 points to take Colorado. He would need to be winning nationally by a margin of 12.3 points to take Nevada. So neither is reasonably likely, but Colorado is much more possible than Nevada.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #16 on: June 20, 2016, 12:23:00 PM »

Nevada won't be competitive this year,  Trump is a downright awful candidate for Nevada.

Hillary isn't a good match either, but Nevada has too much of a democratic lean and Trump would need to be REALLY in sync with the state to win.   Las Vegas is just too big nowadays and there's too many latinos for Trump to overcome.
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« Reply #17 on: June 20, 2016, 12:25:10 PM »

CO
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