Is the bolded portion a typo?
Yes. More accurately it was just sloppiness on my part. I just looked it up: according to Bloomberg.com, Romney received about 27% of the hispanic vote in 2012. Trump gets about half that in recent polls, so a Clinton victory in Texas and Arizona is possible if Trump is only getting 52% of the non-hispanic white vote.
Keeping all turnout numbers the same, but lowering Republican Hispanic share to 15%, Texas flips when the white Republican share (not white male, just non-Hispanic whites of both genders) drops to 56%, according to this simulator:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/widgets/2016/turnout_two_party_vote.htmlEven being really generous to Trump, you still have to take into account his huge gender gap. If Trump is getting 52% of white men, he's getting 45% of the total white vote (I'm guestimating). With those numbers he wins four states, maybe five.
Poll
