How will Trump do with white men?
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  How will Trump do with white men?
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Poll
Question: What percentage of Non-hispanic white males will Trump win
#1
< 50%
 
#2
50-52%
 
#3
53-55%
 
#4
56-58%
 
#5
59-61%
 
#6
62-64%
 
#7
65-70%
 
#8
> 70%
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 79

Author Topic: How will Trump do with white men?  (Read 3017 times)
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« on: June 19, 2016, 11:45:04 PM »

Also, why?
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #1 on: June 20, 2016, 12:16:32 AM »

Right now he's getting them about 60-40.

They are pretty much Trump's last bastion.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #2 on: June 20, 2016, 07:19:47 AM »

I'm so ashamed.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #3 on: June 20, 2016, 09:36:47 AM »

In a close election, he'll get about what Romney got or a little less, losing support among traditionally Republican college educated men, especially those in suburban areas (especially in the North) and gaining support among some high school educated and lower income White men in the Rust Belt and Appalachia who usually voted Democrat.
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #4 on: June 20, 2016, 10:06:37 AM »

I seriously doubt he will outperform the 2:1 margin Romney got.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #5 on: June 20, 2016, 10:52:33 AM »

In a close election, he'll get about what Romney got or a little less, losing support among traditionally Republican college educated men, especially those in suburban areas (especially in the North) and gaining support among some high school educated and lower income White men in the Rust Belt and Appalachia who usually voted Democrat.

How is that plausible?  If the election is close, he'll most likely do notably worse than among women and Hispanics (even if slightly better among blacks).

In a close election, better than Romney.  Trump doesn't have much of a chance of winning if he doesn't get more than 2/3 of white men.
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #6 on: June 20, 2016, 12:46:05 PM »

So ashamed of my gender race, or race gender.

I think Republicans carried white men by a 2-to-1 margin in the 2014 midterms with lower turnout, which always benefits Republicans, so I'd say Trump will probably mimic these results with higher turnout, give or take a few points, I'd say anywhere from 63-68 percent.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #7 on: June 20, 2016, 12:49:59 PM »

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He's actually losing the demographic now to Hillary.
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Human
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« Reply #8 on: June 20, 2016, 01:10:36 PM »
« Edited: June 20, 2016, 01:14:43 PM by Human »

62%-64%

Donald Trump will almost certainly do slightly better than Mitt Romney with white men (like most polls suggest), but his miniscule gains with white men will easily be made up by large losses with white women and minorities.
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Spark
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« Reply #9 on: June 20, 2016, 01:12:15 PM »

62-64%
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #10 on: June 20, 2016, 05:29:29 PM »
« Edited: June 20, 2016, 05:33:04 PM by Tartarus Sauce »

In a close election, he'll get about what Romney got or a little less, losing support among traditionally Republican college educated men, especially those in suburban areas (especially in the North) and gaining support among some high school educated and lower income White men in the Rust Belt and Appalachia who usually voted Democrat.

All evidence is currently indicating he isn't snagging traditional working class Democrats at the numbers conventional wisdom seems to believe he is. He is doing somewhat better than Romney did with the working class whites on balance, but his net returns are indeed negative due to the greater magnitude of the aforementioned educated white-collar whites he is bleeding.

His vast appeal among the working class whites derives from those that have been voting Republican for the past several general election cycles, but many of them hadn't bothered to change their Democratic registration until now in order to participate in the primaries. He's doubling down on an already Republican voting demographic and not running up the margins enough on either expanding the coalition or picking off enough habitual Democratic working class whites to compensate, which of course, he would need to do in order for the election to be close.
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Sbane
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« Reply #11 on: June 20, 2016, 05:55:34 PM »

How college educated White men vote (and also non-college educated White women) will determine whether or not this is a close win for Hillary or a blowout. Obviously this demographic does not like Trump but they don't like Hillary either. Also the Johnson/Stein vote should be pretty high among this group as well.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #12 on: June 20, 2016, 06:00:07 PM »

Probably worse than he does with white women.

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angus
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« Reply #13 on: June 20, 2016, 06:08:02 PM »

I guessed between 50 and 52%.  It's really a guess.  Bush took over 62% in 2004 and McCain took just under 58% in 2008.  Romney took about 62% also.  All those were heavily-supported establishment candidates, so the ceiling is probably 57%.  I don't think he'll get that because he doesn't have his ducks in a row and won't listen to any advice.  50 to 52 may be generous even, but that's how I voted. 
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #14 on: June 20, 2016, 10:24:05 PM »
« Edited: June 20, 2016, 10:33:08 PM by Beef »

I guessed between 50 and 52%.  It's really a guess.  Bush took over 62% in 2004 and McCain took just under 58% in 2008.  Romney took about 62% also.  All those were heavily-supported establishment candidates, so the ceiling is probably 57%.  I don't think he'll get that because he doesn't have his ducks in a row and won't listen to any advice.  50 to 52 may be generous even, but that's how I voted.  


If Donald Trump gets between 50 and 52% of white men, he'll lose by 20 points nationally, and the map will look like this:

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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #15 on: June 20, 2016, 10:41:33 PM »

I would guess around 60%.  White men are going to vote for one of their own against someone who isn't.  People accuse women and minorities of identity politics but the truth is everyone does it.
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Suck my caulk
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« Reply #16 on: June 20, 2016, 11:44:50 PM »

Trump will win 57% of white male voters.
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DS0816
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« Reply #17 on: June 21, 2016, 12:32:01 AM »

I guessed between 50 and 52%.  It's really a guess.  Bush took over 62% in 2004 and McCain took just under 58% in 2008.  Romney took about 62% also.  All those were heavily-supported establishment candidates, so the ceiling is probably 57%.  I don't think he'll get that because he doesn't have his ducks in a row and won't listen to any advice.  50 to 52 may be generous even, but that's how I voted.  


If Donald Trump gets between 50 and 52% of white men, he'll lose by 20 points nationally, and the map will look like this:



Did you do research on all states' white voters?

In 2012, not all states were exit-polled; just 31 of the 50.

For example:

I would predict South Carolina flipping Democratic, as well, in that scenario. Its margins have been less than five percentage points from neighboring state Georgia in every presidential election since 1996. (That amounts to five consecutive election cycles.) And it is more within reach, with that respect, than Texas. If Texas is gone…so is South Carolina.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #18 on: June 21, 2016, 05:43:39 AM »

I've been expecting for some time that it'd be the least malleable number among the race/gender demographics, and expecting that even with a bad performance, he'd stay at 60%. I'm really starting to think that he could fall below that by a few points. Voted 56-58%.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #19 on: June 21, 2016, 06:02:04 AM »

I guessed between 50 and 52%.  It's really a guess.  Bush took over 62% in 2004 and McCain took just under 58% in 2008.  Romney took about 62% also.  All those were heavily-supported establishment candidates, so the ceiling is probably 57%.  I don't think he'll get that because he doesn't have his ducks in a row and won't listen to any advice.  50 to 52 may be generous even, but that's how I voted.  


If Donald Trump gets between 50 and 52% of white men, he'll lose by 20 points nationally, and the map will look like this:



Did you do research on all states' white voters?

In 2012, not all states were exit-polled; just 31 of the 50.

For example:

I would predict South Carolina flipping Democratic, as well, in that scenario. Its margins have been less than five percentage points from neighboring state Georgia in every presidential election since 1996. (That amounts to five consecutive election cycles.) And it is more within reach, with that respect, than Texas. If Texas is gone…so is South Carolina.

I have SC in a virtual tie.  TX flips because of the heavy Latino population.
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angus
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« Reply #20 on: June 21, 2016, 06:25:47 AM »

Beef, are you excluding Latinos from the pool of "white male" voters?  Latinos can be of any race, and in the latest census about 55% of self-identified Latinos also identified as white.  I'd imagine that in Texas the percentage is even higher, although I'm not sure what percent of Latinos in Texas would vote for Donald Trump.  Bush got about 40% of the Latino vote in 2004, and Romney did even better with that group in 2012.

I just don't think Trump will perform as well among any group, including white people and males, as the previous Republican candidates have performed because of the reasons I mentioned.  If McCain only gets 57%, and McCain had a ground game, a competent staff, and the support of the party, then it's hard to imagine Donald Trump getting over that, or even close to that. 

It's possible that Trump will begin to listen to the advice of others, hire a competent manager, and stop acting like a first-grader, but if all that doesn't happen, then we might just have a Democrat landslide.  I think you have to analyze more than just white males though.  Also, it's early.  This is an "if the election were held today" question really.  The election won't be held today.



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Torie
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« Reply #21 on: June 21, 2016, 07:28:41 AM »

Beef, are you excluding Latinos from the pool of "white male" voters?  Latinos can be of any race, and in the latest census about 55% of self-identified Latinos also identified as white.  I'd imagine that in Texas the percentage is even higher, although I'm not sure what percent of Latinos in Texas would vote for Donald Trump.  Bush got about 40% of the Latino vote in 2004, and Romney did even better with that group in 2012.

I just don't think Trump will perform as well among any group, including white people and males, as the previous Republican candidates have performed because of the reasons I mentioned.  If McCain only gets 57%, and McCain had a ground game, a competent staff, and the support of the party, then it's hard to imagine Donald Trump getting over that, or even close to that. 

It's possible that Trump will begin to listen to the advice of others, hire a competent manager, and stop acting like a first-grader, but if all that doesn't happen, then we might just have a Democrat landslide.  I think you have to analyze more than just white males though.  Also, it's early.  This is an "if the election were held today" question really.  The election won't be held today.





The general assumption when you refer to whites in this context, is that you really mean non Hispanic whites, so the two groups vote so differently. I suspect most of the numbers bandied about above, are referring to non Hispanic whites.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #22 on: June 21, 2016, 07:47:50 AM »

Beef, are you excluding Latinos from the pool of "white male" voters?

Yes.  In my poll question, I specifically ask "Non-Hispanic whites."  Which is kind of a broad, almost meaningless government-created demographic, but in Hispanics in Texas are mostly Chicano/Mexian-American, and if you're Chicano you're not too happy about Trump's antics, to put it mildly.

The ancestry with the largest population in half the counties of Texas is Mexican.  So it's a big deal.

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You may be right in the long run, but if you are, we will see all the current undecideds in the polls break Clinton's way.  Right now national polls show Clinton leading 45-39.  If Trump ends up getting 50-52% of the white male vote, by September we should be seeing Clinton in the high 50s and Trump stuck in the high 30s.  Which isn't inconceivable, but probably a best case scenario for Hillary.  But as you say, the question is "if the election were held today," and it's June.

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The most ominous thing for Trump right now is, who is going to fund him?  Corporate America is backing out of the RNC.  He has no party support.  He's radioactive.  No funding, no surrogates, relying on his media circus to sustain his message?  The only way he can keep up the free pub is to keep saying and doing outrageous things, which will cause him to continue to bleed moderate support.  So, you may be right.  It could be a bloodbath.
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Redban
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« Reply #23 on: June 21, 2016, 07:53:47 AM »

Beef, are you excluding Latinos from the pool of "white male" voters?  Latinos can be of any race, and in the latest census about 55% of self-identified Latinos also identified as white.  I'd imagine that in Texas the percentage is even higher, although I'm not sure what percent of Latinos in Texas would vote for Donald Trump.  Bush got about 40% of the Latino vote in 2004, and Romney did even better with that group in 2012.

I just don't think Trump will perform as well among any group, including white people and males, as the previous Republican candidates have performed because of the reasons I mentioned.  If McCain only gets 57%, and McCain had a ground game, a competent staff, and the support of the party, then it's hard to imagine Donald Trump getting over that, or even close to that. 

It's possible that Trump will begin to listen to the advice of others, hire a competent manager, and stop acting like a first-grader, but if all that doesn't happen, then we might just have a Democrat landslide.  I think you have to analyze more than just white males though.  Also, it's early.  This is an "if the election were held today" question really.  The election won't be held today.


Is the bolded portion a typo?
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they don't love you like i love you
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« Reply #24 on: June 21, 2016, 08:03:24 AM »

Beef, are you excluding Latinos from the pool of "white male" voters?

Yes.  In my poll question, I specifically ask "Non-Hispanic whites."  Which is kind of a broad, almost meaningless government-created demographic, but in Hispanics in Texas are mostly Chicano/Mexian-American, and if you're Chicano you're not too happy about Trump's antics, to put it mildly.

The ancestry with the largest population in half the counties of Texas is Mexican.  So it's a big deal.

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You may be right in the long run, but if you are, we will see all the current undecideds in the polls break Clinton's way.  Right now national polls show Clinton leading 45-39.  If Trump ends up getting 50-52% of the white male vote, by September we should be seeing Clinton in the high 50s and Trump stuck in the high 30s.  Which isn't inconceivable, but probably a best case scenario for Hillary.  But as you say, the question is "if the election were held today," and it's June.

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The most ominous thing for Trump right now is, who is going to fund him?  Corporate America is backing out of the RNC.  He has no party support.  He's radioactive.  No funding, no surrogates, relying on his media circus to sustain his message?  The only way he can keep up the free pub is to keep saying and doing outrageous things, which will cause him to continue to bleed moderate support.  So, you may be right.  It could be a bloodbath.

He could just take public funding.
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