Beef, are you excluding Latinos from the pool of "white male" voters?
Yes. In my poll question, I specifically ask "Non-Hispanic whites." Which is kind of a broad, almost meaningless government-created demographic, but in Hispanics in Texas are mostly Chicano/Mexian-American, and if you're Chicano you're not too happy about Trump's antics, to put it mildly.
The ancestry with the largest population in half the counties of Texas is Mexican. So it's a big deal.
You may be right in the long run, but if you are, we will see all the current undecideds in the polls break Clinton's way. Right now national polls show Clinton leading 45-39. If Trump ends up getting 50-52% of the white male vote, by September we should be seeing Clinton in the high 50s and Trump stuck in the high 30s. Which isn't inconceivable, but probably a best case scenario for Hillary. But as you say, the question is "if the election were held today," and it's June.
The most ominous thing for Trump right now is, who is going to fund him? Corporate America is backing out of the RNC. He has no party support. He's radioactive. No funding, no surrogates, relying on his media circus to sustain his message? The only way he can keep up the free pub is to keep saying and doing outrageous things, which will cause him to continue to bleed moderate support. So, you may be right. It could be a bloodbath.
He could just take public funding.
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