In a close election, he'll get about what Romney got or a little less, losing support among traditionally Republican college educated men, especially those in suburban areas (especially in the North) and gaining support among some high school educated and lower income White men in the Rust Belt and Appalachia who usually voted Democrat.
All evidence is currently indicating he isn't snagging traditional working class Democrats at the numbers conventional wisdom seems to believe he is. He is doing somewhat better than Romney did with the working class whites on balance, but his net returns are indeed negative due to the greater magnitude of the aforementioned educated white-collar whites he is bleeding.
His vast appeal among the working class whites derives from those that have been voting Republican for the past several general election cycles, but many of them hadn't bothered to change their Democratic registration until now in order to participate in the primaries. He's doubling down on an already Republican voting demographic and not running up the margins enough on either expanding the coalition or picking off enough habitual Democratic working class whites to compensate, which of course, he would need to do in order for the election to be close.
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