How will Trump do with white men?

[angus]

I guessed between 50 and 52%.  It's really a guess.  Bush took over 62% in 2004 and McCain took just under 58% in 2008.  Romney took about 62% also.  All those were heavily-supported establishment candidates, so the ceiling is probably 57%.  I don't think he'll get that because he doesn't have his ducks in a row and won't listen to any advice.  50 to 52 may be generous even, but that's how I voted. 

[angus]

Beef, are you excluding Latinos from the pool of "white male" voters?  Latinos can be of any race, and in the latest census about 55% of self-identified Latinos also identified as white.  I'd imagine that in Texas the percentage is even higher, although I'm not sure what percent of Latinos in Texas would vote for Donald Trump.  Bush got about 40% of the Latino vote in 2004, and Romney did even better with that group in 2012.

I just don't think Trump will perform as well among any group, including white people and males, as the previous Republican candidates have performed because of the reasons I mentioned.  If McCain only gets 57%, and McCain had a ground game, a competent staff, and the support of the party, then it's hard to imagine Donald Trump getting over that, or even close to that. 

It's possible that Trump will begin to listen to the advice of others, hire a competent manager, and stop acting like a first-grader, but if all that doesn't happen, then we might just have a Democrat landslide.  I think you have to analyze more than just white males though.  Also, it's early.  This is an "if the election were held today" question really.  The election won't be held today.

[angus]

Is the bolded portion a typo?

Yes.  More accurately it was just sloppiness on my part.  I just looked it up:  according to Bloomberg.com, Romney received about 27% of the hispanic vote in 2012.  Trump gets about half that in recent polls, so a Clinton victory in Texas and Arizona is possible if Trump is only getting 52% of the non-hispanic white vote.