I guessed between 50 and 52%. It's really a guess. Bush took over 62% in 2004 and McCain took just under 58% in 2008. Romney took about 62% also. All those were heavily-supported establishment candidates, so the ceiling is probably 57%. I don't think he'll get that because he doesn't have his ducks in a row and won't listen to any advice. 50 to 52 may be generous even, but that's how I voted.
If Donald Trump gets between 50 and 52% of white men, he'll lose by 20 points nationally, and the map will look like this:
Did you do research on all states' white voters?
In 2012, not all states were exit-polled; just 31 of the 50.
For example:I would predict South Carolina flipping Democratic, as well, in that scenario. Its margins have been less than five percentage points from neighboring state Georgia in every presidential election since 1996. (That amounts to five consecutive election cycles.) And it is more within reach, with that respect, than Texas. If Texas is gone…so is South Carolina.
Poll
