How will Trump do with white men?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Also, why?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'm so ashamed.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I guessed between 50 and 52%.  It's really a guess.  Bush took over 62% in 2004 and McCain took just under 58% in 2008.  Romney took about 62% also.  All those were heavily-supported establishment candidates, so the ceiling is probably 57%.  I don't think he'll get that because he doesn't have his ducks in a row and won't listen to any advice.  50 to 52 may be generous even, but that's how I voted.  

If Donald Trump gets between 50 and 52% of white men, he'll lose by 20 points nationally, and the map will look like this:

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I guessed between 50 and 52%.  It's really a guess.  Bush took over 62% in 2004 and McCain took just under 58% in 2008.  Romney took about 62% also.  All those were heavily-supported establishment candidates, so the ceiling is probably 57%.  I don't think he'll get that because he doesn't have his ducks in a row and won't listen to any advice.  50 to 52 may be generous even, but that's how I voted.  

If Donald Trump gets between 50 and 52% of white men, he'll lose by 20 points nationally, and the map will look like this:

Did you do research on all states' white voters?

In 2012, not all states were exit-polled; just 31 of the 50.

For example:

I would predict South Carolina flipping Democratic, as well, in that scenario. Its margins have been less than five percentage points from neighboring state Georgia in every presidential election since 1996. (That amounts to five consecutive election cycles.) And it is more within reach, with that respect, than Texas. If Texas is gone…so is South Carolina.

I have SC in a virtual tie.  TX flips because of the heavy Latino population.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Beef, are you excluding Latinos from the pool of "white male" voters?

Yes.  In my poll question, I specifically ask "Non-Hispanic whites."  Which is kind of a broad, almost meaningless government-created demographic, but in Hispanics in Texas are mostly Chicano/Mexian-American, and if you're Chicano you're not too happy about Trump's antics, to put it mildly.

The ancestry with the largest population in half the counties of Texas is Mexican.  So it's a big deal.

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You may be right in the long run, but if you are, we will see all the current undecideds in the polls break Clinton's way.  Right now national polls show Clinton leading 45-39.  If Trump ends up getting 50-52% of the white male vote, by September we should be seeing Clinton in the high 50s and Trump stuck in the high 30s.  Which isn't inconceivable, but probably a best case scenario for Hillary.  But as you say, the question is "if the election were held today," and it's June.

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The most ominous thing for Trump right now is, who is going to fund him?  Corporate America is backing out of the RNC.  He has no party support.  He's radioactive.  No funding, no surrogates, relying on his media circus to sustain his message?  The only way he can keep up the free pub is to keep saying and doing outrageous things, which will cause him to continue to bleed moderate support.  So, you may be right.  It could be a bloodbath.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Is the bolded portion a typo?

Yes.  More accurately it was just sloppiness on my part.  I just looked it up:  according to Bloomberg.com, Romney received about 27% of the hispanic vote in 2012.  Trump gets about half that in recent polls, so a Clinton victory in Texas and Arizona is possible if Trump is only getting 52% of the non-hispanic white vote. 

Keeping all turnout numbers the same, but lowering Republican Hispanic share to 15%, Texas flips when the white Republican share (not white male, just non-Hispanic whites of both genders) drops to 56%, according to this simulator:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/widgets/2016/turnout_two_party_vote.html

Even being really generous to Trump, you still have to take into account his huge gender gap.  If Trump is getting 52% of white men, he's getting 45% of the total white vote (I'm guestimating).  With those numbers he wins four states, maybe five.