How many more national elections until Democratic fatigue?

[5280]

Lets say Hillary wins the November 2016 election comfortably against Donald Trump. She barely wins in 2020 against a moderate GOP nominee.

I'm sure the country will want to go in a different direction after 16+ years of the same party in office.  How many more national elections until Democratic fatigue sets in?  Will there be a backlash against the Democratic party similar to Bush when he was unpopular during his 2nd term in office from '04-'08?

[Virginiá]

It's not really possible to say right now if Democrats will face a Bush-like backlash any time soon. There were reasons behind that. Unpopular wars, Congressional scandals, then the Great Recession - it really added up after awhile. It's also possible that the next Republican is another screw up, or that Clinton has a very rough 4 years and ends up being a one term president.

However, I am wondering what you mean about fatigue - Do you mean the public desires a Republican president at that time, or that the public's political leanings begin to shift long-term towards Republicans? Because if it is the latter, that could take a while yet. Republican dominance at the presidential level arguably started with Eisenhower all the way to Bush41. People who grew up during this 40 year time span have leaned Republican in their voting patterns more often than not, some times by large margins. So it's possible that Democrats don't fall out of favor until 2028 - 2032. Such long periods of favorability have definitely happened more than once in American history. When you factor in the rate of minority growth and their substantial + reliable Democratic leanings, Republicans could get locked out for a long time. That is, unless they can make inroads among those demographics, which seems unlikely right now.

Also worth noting that Republicans will face their own 1994 at the Congressional level most likely within the next 10 - 15 years, tops. Their massive rejection by the Millennial generation (and latter part of GenX) will catch up to them by the time these people begin to dominate the 25 - 55 year age brackets. Given the GOP's current standing, it seems unlikely that they will turn Gen Z into a heavy Republican-leaning voter group, so it will take Republicans many years more to begin substantially rebuilding their voter base. Though, that is just my speculation. No one truly knows yet what direction Gen Z will go in.

[Spark]

Most likely 2024 when a Republican wave occurs.

[Mike Thick]

Why 2030 and 2034?

[Ljube]

Never.

[DS0816]

However many it takes.


Since the 1860 Republican presidential realigning election, here were the minority-realigned, two-term presidents:

• Grover Cleveland, Democrat, non–consecutive (1884, 1892)
• Woodrow Wilson, Democrat (1912, 1916)
• Dwight Eisenhower, Republican (1952, 1956)
• Bill Clinton, Democrat (1992, 1996)

With 2008 the most recent start of a realigning period, for the Democrats, the Republicans will have to come up with a nationally appealing candidate who can—and will—prevail under favorable circumstances. Every realigning presidential winner won re-election to a second term—which, in 2012, meant that Mitt Romney was doomed. Here, in 2016, Donald Trump is showing us he is not serious. So, the Republicans have to have a candidate who is appealing under the right circumstances—plus, given realignments also bring to reality a change in electorate needs and attitudes, Team Red will have to have adapted by the time they come up with their next Eisenhower.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Why 2030 and 2034?

Duodecimal? 2020-36 would be 1204, 1208, 1210, 1214, and 1218, ftr.

[Mr. Smith]

I can't see the victor 2016 winning 2020.

[5280]

Why 2030 and 2034?

I screwed up, it's supposed to be 2032 and 2036.

[Green Line]

There already IS democrat fatigue.  The Republicans are just offering up the worst possible alternative.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I can't see the victor 2016 winning 2020.

[Suck my caulk]

Democratic fatigue, in the sense that the progressive base of the Party is not excited by Obama anymore, and has never been excited by Clinton, has already set in. That said, demographic changes among upcoming voters suggests that Democrats, no matter how unpopular they become as a Party, will continue to win Presidential elections. George W. Bush may be remembered as the last Republican President, especially if the Libertarian party emerges this November as a viable third party, and receives 5-10% of the popular vote. The GOP, at that point, will either have to adopt some of the Libertarian platform, and hope their social conservative base follows along with them, or they will become irrelevant on a national level.

Of the election years in the poll, I would say it is entirely possible Democrats will hold office until 2028, if Trump loses this year.

[Heisenberg]

I can't see the victor 2016 winning 2020.

Same, I think Hillary, if elected, will lose in 2020 following a midterm wave. With regards to Senate seats, I think Tillis and Gardner are the two most vulnerable Senators up for reelection that cycle. It seems like demographics will catch up, and it's possible (even likely) that the Millennials will remain loyal left wing Democrats for the rest of their lives, barring a 2008-style recession under a Democratic president.

[Xing]

Fatigue is only a thing if the sitting president is unpopular. Republicans can't rely on fatigue to win an election. They need to appeal to a broader coalition and convince Americans that they have new solutions.

[Deblano]

Until the GOP comes up with a legitimate nominee.

People are tired of the Democrats, but they are also TERRIFIED of the Republicans with all the Trump bullsh**ttery.

[Virginiá]

Until the GOP comes up with a legitimate nominee.

People are tired of the Democrats, but they are also TERRIFIED of the Republicans with all the Trump bullsh**ttery.

Judging by the number of people not affiliating with a party these days, I'd say they are sick of both parties, but arguably Republicans more as 1) Democrats almost consistently have a registration or "leans" advantage, and 2) the public sides with Democrats on many important issues

The most critical emerging voter blocs in this country are definitely not going to bed hoping for a Republican savior. Republican success over the next 4 - 6 years is inevitably going to come down to how much hate and faux scandals they can put together against Clinton (just like they did for Barry) and how many geriatrics they can wheel out to the polling booths.

[hopper]

I can't see the victor 2016 winning 2020.

Same, I think Hillary, if elected, will lose in 2020 following a midterm wave. With regards to Senate seats, I think Tillis and Gardner are the two most vulnerable Senators up for reelection that cycle. It seems like demographics will catch up, and it's possible (even likely) that the Millennials will remain loyal left wing Democrats for the rest of their lives, barring a 2008-style recession under a Democratic president.

Tillis-Well if Ross(D) gets elected to the US Senate in 2016 I don't think Tillis will lose. If Ross loses to Burr Tillis probably won't win. I don't think NC wants 2 Dem US Senators.

Gardner-I don't think he is that vulnerable although that could change.

I think the demographic thing is too overblown in Elections except for the Presidential Election which it absolutely killed Republicans in 2012. I think the Republicans will lose in 2016 because the Republicans have a bad candidate toppling over the demographics issue as to why they will lose. Non-Hispanic White Women do not like Trump in a swing state like Colorado for example.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Democratic fatigue is already there. A non-insane Republican would easily have beat Hillary. The question is, will GOP primary voters ever nominate a non-insane candidate again?

[Free Bird]

If not this year than definitely 2020. It'd honestly be better off for Democrats for Hillary to lose in the long term.

[Boston Bread]

I think Americans will experience more fatigue from Trump's rhetoric than the Democratic party by the end of this election.

[skoods]

Democratic fatigue, in the sense that the progressive base of the Party is not excited by Obama anymore, and has never been excited by Clinton, has already set in. That said, demographic changes among upcoming voters suggests that Democrats, no matter how unpopular they become as a Party, will continue to win Presidential elections. George W. Bush may be remembered as the last Republican President, especially if the Libertarian party emerges this November as a viable third party, and receives 5-10% of the popular vote. The GOP, at that point, will either have to adopt some of the Libertarian platform, and hope their social conservative base follows along with them, or they will become irrelevant on a national level.

Of the election years in the poll, I would say it is entirely possible Democrats will hold office until 2028, if Trump loses this year.

Really? Maybe not the fridge Sanders nutjobs. But, his approval rating suggests that most progressives are quite fond of Obama. Sorry he's not cutting American jobs so that he can save a tree.,

[IceSpear]

I can't see the victor 2016 winning 2020.

Same, I think Hillary, if elected, will lose in 2020 following a midterm wave. With regards to Senate seats, I think Tillis and Gardner are the two most vulnerable Senators up for reelection that cycle. It seems like demographics will catch up, and it's possible (even likely) that the Millennials will remain loyal left wing Democrats for the rest of their lives, barring a 2008-style recession under a Democratic president.

Tillis-Well if Ross(D) gets elected to the US Senate in 2016 I don't think Tillis will lose. If Ross loses to Burr Tillis probably won't win. I don't think NC wants 2 Dem US Senators.

Gardner-I don't think he is that vulnerable although that could change.

I think the demographic thing is too overblown in Elections except for the Presidential Election which it absolutely killed Republicans in 2012. I think the Republicans will lose in 2016 because the Republicans have a bad candidate toppling over the demographics issue as to why they will lose. Non-Hispanic White Women do not like Trump in a swing state like Colorado for example.

I don't think anybody thinks like this...

Does Iowa "want" 2 Republican Senators?

[IceSpear]

Democratic fatigue is already there. A non-insane Republican would easily have beat Hillary. The question is, will GOP primary voters ever nominate a non-insane candidate again?

Ridiculous assumption. Just like Hillary is not a lock now, Kasich or whoever would not have been a lock against her. It would've just moved the odds in the Republicans' favor.

[Heisenberg]

I can't see the victor 2016 winning 2020.

Same, I think Hillary, if elected, will lose in 2020 following a midterm wave. With regards to Senate seats, I think Tillis and Gardner are the two most vulnerable Senators up for reelection that cycle. It seems like demographics will catch up, and it's possible (even likely) that the Millennials will remain loyal left wing Democrats for the rest of their lives, barring a 2008-style recession under a Democratic president.

Tillis-Well if Ross(D) gets elected to the US Senate in 2016 I don't think Tillis will lose. If Ross loses to Burr Tillis probably won't win. I don't think NC wants 2 Dem US Senators.

Gardner-I don't think he is that vulnerable although that could change.

I think the demographic thing is too overblown in Elections except for the Presidential Election which it absolutely killed Republicans in 2012. I think the Republicans will lose in 2016 because the Republicans have a bad candidate toppling over the demographics issue as to why they will lose. Non-Hispanic White Women do not like Trump in a swing state like Colorado for example.

I don't think anybody thinks like this...

Does Iowa "want" 2 Republican Senators?

I agree. Nobody really thinks that way. Tillis strikes me as vulnerable because I hear his approval ratings are very low, and North Carolina will be more Dem-friendly in four years. As for Gardner, he seems inoffensive, but I expect him to face a tough battle. In relative terms, he's the second most vulnerable Republican up in 2020 because the others are all either in Solid R states or super popular and inoffensive (like Susan Collins).

[indietraveler]

I think their is fatigue everywhere, democrat, republican, insider, outsider...republicans are screwing themselves out of the presidency probably for a few more terms minimum by not holding more moderate positions on social issues, alienating minorities, and continually voting for crazies at the state and national level. They have no one to blame but themselves.