Will Gary Johnson win Utah?

[Spark]

Since both major candidates won't sit well with the Mormon community?

[anthonyjg]

Probably not, but I do think it will be his best state.

[SillyAmerican]

Probably not, but I do think it will be his best state.

Agreed.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

No, but in a perfect storm he could spoil it the way Perot spoiled Montana.

[President Johnson]

No. He may break 10%, but that's it.

My bet for Utah is TRUMP at 55%, Hilldog at 35% and Johnson at approx. 9-10%.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

No, but in a perfect storm he could spoil it the way Perot spoiled Montana.

[Lincoln Republican]

No.

Johnson will not win Utah, nor will he win any other state.

[Enduro]

No.

Johnson will not win Utah, nor will he win any other state.

I bet you a high five Johnson will win something.

[evergreenarbor]

Probably not. If he does really well in the state, he might prevent Trump from winning, but I don't think he can win the state himself.

[Suck my caulk]

Probably not. If he does really well in the state, he might prevent Trump from winning, but I don't think he can win the state himself.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

No, very unlikely the most I think he would get is 15%, more likely he gets around 8%-10%. 

[Green Line]

Unless something changes, yes.  The Republican Party is gradually abandoning Trump, and by November it will only be worse.  Johnson wins 35-33-32.  That is unless Trump loses at the convention, which looks likely.

[DS0816]

Third-party candidates who manage to carry any states typically impact the map in states which are bases for the party to which that third-party nominee comes across as an Alternative Republican or Alternative Democrat.

Consider:

• 1912: Progressive Party nominee, and former Republican president, Teddy Roosevelt flips six states which backed, in 1908, incumbent Republican president William Howard Taft: California, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, and Washington. All of losing 1908 Democratic nominee William Jennings Bryan’s states logically carry for 1912 Democratic pickup winner Woodrow Wilson before he flips 1908 Republican Taft states—leaving a disastrously unseated Taft (who ends up with just two states—Utah and Vermont).

• 1948: States Rights candidate Strom Thurmond, not happy with the Democratic Party, carries base states for the party which include Thurmond’s home state South Carolina plus Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. President Harry Truman wins a full-term election anyway, in a Democratic hold (the fifth consecutive for that party), and becomes the first Democrat elected without having carried those states.

• 1968: With exception of South Carolina, American Independent George Wallace wins the same states as carried 20 years earlier by Thurmond…along with Arkansas and Georgia. 1968 marks a Republican presidential realigning period with election of Richard Nixon, whose Old Confederacy states, among his total 32, were carriage of Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia.



I would anticipate that the next time a third-party nominee brings a color, other than red or blue, to the electoral map…will do so in states which are bases for Republicans or Democrats. That, for a particular election cycle, such base states would be rejecting the nominated Republican or Democrat.

This thread’s question is good. Along with Utah, I would consider Idaho and Wyoming—two more companion states—for discussing Libertarian Gary Johnson and Election 2016.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Third-party candidates who manage to carry any states typically impact the map in states which are bases for the party to which that third-party nominee comes across as an Alternative Republican or Alternative Democrat.

Consider:

• 1912: Progressive Party nominee, and former Republican president, Teddy Roosevelt flips six states which backed, in 1908, incumbent Republican president William Howard Taft: California, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, and Washington. All of losing 1908 Democratic nominee William Jennings Bryan’s states logically carry for 1912 Democratic pickup winner Woodrow Wilson before he flips 1908 Republican Taft states—leaving a disastrously unseated Taft (who ends up with just two states—Utah and Vermont).

• 1948: States Rights candidate Strom Thurmond, not happy with the Democratic Party, carries base states for the party which include Thurmond’s home state South Carolina plus Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. President Harry Truman wins a full-term election anyway, in a Democratic hold (the fifth consecutive for that party), and becomes the first Democrat elected without having carried those states.

• 1968: With exception of South Carolina, American Independent George Wallace wins the same states as carried 20 years earlier by Thurmond…along with Arkansas and Georgia. 1968 marks a Republican presidential realigning period with election of Richard Nixon, whose Old Confederacy states, among his total 32, were carriage of Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia.



I would anticipate that the next time a third-party nominee brings a color, other than red or blue, to the electoral map…will do so in states which are bases for Republicans or Democrats. That, for a particular election cycle, such base states would be rejecting the nominated Republican or Democrat.

This thread’s question is good. Along with Utah, I would consider Idaho and Wyoming—two more companion states—for discussing Libertarian Gary Johnson and Election 2016.

That line of thinking also seems to work for a hypothetical Bernie run. He'd do well in Vermont, which is part of the mythical freiwal.

What do you think about Alaska? It's been trending D for a while and has voted in high percentages for past Libertarian candidates. I think it could still be considered a base state for Reublicans though.

[andrew_c]

No, but if he does well enough, Hillary would come up the middle and win the state.

[Sir Mohamed]

Stop.

Johnson won’t win UT. Or any other state.

[MIKESOWELL]

Well, one thing is certain: this will be the best Libertarian showing ever.

[DS0816]

Third-party candidates who manage to carry any states typically impact the map in states which are bases for the party to which that third-party nominee comes across as an Alternative Republican or Alternative Democrat.

Consider:

• 1912: Progressive Party nominee, and former Republican president, Teddy Roosevelt flips six states which backed, in 1908, incumbent Republican president William Howard Taft: California, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, and Washington. All of losing 1908 Democratic nominee William Jennings Bryan’s states logically carry for 1912 Democratic pickup winner Woodrow Wilson before he flips 1908 Republican Taft states—leaving a disastrously unseated Taft (who ends up with just two states—Utah and Vermont).

• 1948: States Rights candidate Strom Thurmond, not happy with the Democratic Party, carries base states for the party which include Thurmond’s home state South Carolina plus Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. President Harry Truman wins a full-term election anyway, in a Democratic hold (the fifth consecutive for that party), and becomes the first Democrat elected without having carried those states.

• 1968: With exception of South Carolina, American Independent George Wallace wins the same states as carried 20 years earlier by Thurmond…along with Arkansas and Georgia. 1968 marks a Republican presidential realigning period with election of Richard Nixon, whose Old Confederacy states, among his total 32, were carriage of Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia.



I would anticipate that the next time a third-party nominee brings a color, other than red or blue, to the electoral map…will do so in states which are bases for Republicans or Democrats. That, for a particular election cycle, such base states would be rejecting the nominated Republican or Democrat.

This thread’s question is good. Along with Utah, I would consider Idaho and Wyoming—two more companion states—for discussing Libertarian Gary Johnson and Election 2016.

That line of thinking also seems to work for a hypothetical Bernie run. He'd do well in Vermont, which is part of the mythical freiwal.

What do you think about Alaska? It's been trending D for a while and has voted in high percentages for past Libertarian candidates. I think it could still be considered a base state for Reublicans though.

No.

Pick a regular base state for Democrats.

That is the pattern over the last 100 years (make it 104 with the election of 1912).

And, I will note, that Teddy Roosevelt managed to garner over 25 percent of the vote nationwide—ranking second over the unseated William Howard Taft. The other two—Strom Thurmond and George Wallace—had much less support nationally. And their carried states, with Georgia an exception for Wallace, were single-digit electoral-vote states. Teddy did better.

My theory is that a third-party candidate would have to get about 30 percent of the U.S. Popular Vote in order to carry any one state which ranks among the Top 10 in population.

[Figueira]

What exactly about Johnson would appeal to Utahns?

[pho]

No, but I could see him finishing second in Summit County.

[john cage bubblegum]

I doubt it, but I hope he's really competitive there.  I'd love to see a legit three-way race for a state for the first time since '92.

[5280]

What exactly about Johnson would appeal to Utahns?

He hiked the tallest peaks on all 7 continents, hiked Mt Everest with a broken leg, he's a triathlon athlete. He'll appeal to a lot of outdoors men people in National Parks, fitness voters and yoga women.

[ProudModerate2]

Probably not. If he does really well in the state, he might prevent Trump from winning, but I don't think he can win the state himself.

[Figueira]

What exactly about Johnson would appeal to Utahns?

He hiked the tallest peaks on all 7 continents, hiked Mt Everest with a broken leg, he's a triathlon athlete. He'll appeal to a lot of outdoors men people in National Parks, fitness voters and yoga women.

Utah is around 90% urban.

[Human]

Most likely not.

Johnson is too socially liberal for most of the Mormons in Utah. A lot of Mormons will not vote for someone whose pro-choice, pro-marijuana legalization, etc. Sure, there will be quite a few Mormons who will vote for Johnson out of disgust of the other two candidate, but I think that most of them will end up voting for Donald Trump. A majority of Mormons who despise Donald Trump will eventually end up voting for him as a lesser of three evils.

I predict that the results in Utah will look something like this:
Donald Trump: 52%
Hillary Clinton: 35%
Gary Johnson: 10%
Other: 3%