Democrats' ceiling in the 2016 House elections?

[Mike Thick]

All this stuff about Trump's ground game and infrastructure has got me thinking: what do you guys think the Democrats' ceiling for gains in the upcoming House elections is? I believe the Senate has been discussed around here a bit, but not so much the House of Representatives (although his is understandable, as there are so many more individual seats to consider). Discuss.

[smoltchanov]

For now i expect about +10-12 Democratic gain in House, but may see up to double that size result if a really big wave emerges...

[Nyvin]

For now i expect about +10-12 Democratic gain in House, but may see up to double that size result if a really big wave emerges...

Gaining ten seats seems kinda small,  Sabato has 7 Republican held seats as "Likely" or "Lean" Dem already...and there's a whole plethora of Republican seats rated as tossup.

I'd say the average gain will be somewhere around 15-20, maybe more.

[The Other Castro]

The ceiling definitely includes taking a majority (with over 30 seats gained), but of course that is the ceiling. In all likelihood, that probably won't happen and will be more like +20.

[smoltchanov]

For now i expect about +10-12 Democratic gain in House, but may see up to double that size result if a really big wave emerges...

Gaining ten seats seems kinda small,  Sabato has 7 Republican held seats as "Likely" or "Lean" Dem already...and there's a whole plethora of Republican seats rated as tossup.

I'd say the average gain will be somewhere around 15-20, maybe more.

I prefer to be very cautious, until proven otherwise...)))

[Vega]

230 seats.

[Green Line]

313

[Mike Thick]

313

You really think Democrats could gain 125 seats?

[Green Line]

313

You really think Democrats could gain 125 seats?

It's looking more and more likely, yes.  I will revise my numbers after the convention, but they might go up.

[Vosem]

Ceiling is, I would say, around D+40. Most likely result is D+18 or thereabouts.

[NewYorkExpress]

I'd guess the ceiling is D+35... we've had a fair number of recruitment problems in competitive districts.

Most likely though, we Dems will be stuck somewhere around +15 to + 20 range.

[Vega]

I'd guess the ceiling is D+35... we've had a fair number of recruitment problems in competitive districts.

We have?

[Nyvin]

I'd guess the ceiling is D+35... we've had a fair number of recruitment problems in competitive districts.

We have?

A couple...PA-6 and NJ-3 come to mind.

[Green Line]

If the Hillary landslide that is coming doesn't let up, Republicans are losing the following:
Every New York seat except Chris Collins
Every New England seat
Every Philly seat
The majority of their NJ seats
4 VA seats
Half of their Florida seats
4-5 TX seats
5-6 CA seats

I've only just started.  That's not even getting to the Midwest yet, or the rest of the South.  You can say goodbye to Steve King, Peter Roskam, Fred Upton, Justin Amash, PAUL RYAN and many more.

This is not 1964, it's 1932.

[Green Line]

If the Hillary landslide that is coming doesn't let up, Republicans are losing the following:
Every New York seat except Chris Collins
Every New England seat
Every Philly seat
The majority of their NJ seats
4 VA seats
Half of their Florida seats
4-5 TX seats
5-6 CA seats

I've only just started.  That's not even getting to the Midwest yet, or the rest of the South.  You can say goodbye to Steve King, Peter Roskam, Fred Upton, Justin Amash, PAUL RYAN and many more.

This is not 1964, it's 1932.

Agreed, but what about those WV seats? Hillary will win WV, wouldn't her coattails propel every Democratic candidate to victory there?

2/3, at most.  There will still be ~100~ Republicans left in the next Congress.

[BuckeyeNut]

I'd guess the ceiling is D+35... we've had a fair number of recruitment problems in competitive districts.

We have?

A couple...PA-6 and NJ-3 come to mind.

All of the low PVI seats in Ohio.

[Kingpoleon]

Illinois'a sixteenth congressional district(R+6) has no opposition to Kinzinger, despite the fact that seven Democrats, of whom six have six or more years in office(Careen Gordon(former State Rep.), Linda Holmes(State Senator), Patrick Welch(former State Sen.), Frank Mautino(Illinois Auditor General and former State Rep.), Andy Skoog(State Rep.), Douglas P. Scott(former Mayor of Rockford and former State Rep.), Steve Stedelman(State Sen.)).

That was a sad case, as Democrats didn't recruit anyone in a R+6 district in Illinois against someone who said Planned Parenthood should apologize last November if the shooter turned out not to be an anti-abortion activist.

[Zioneer]

D+32 to 35 is probably the ceiling, just based on how much of a drag Trump could be.

[Adam Griffin]

Basically, the realistic ceiling in any election during this redistricting cycle is right at a majority (215-220)...and everything would have to go perfectly in order to hit it. There aren't going to be enough GOP House members who are willing to wrap themselves in the Trumpian flag nor not be able to avoid association in order for Democrats to win any sort of respectable majority in any environment.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I'd guess the ceiling is D+35... we've had a fair number of recruitment problems in competitive districts.

Most likely though, we Dems will be stuck somewhere around +15 to + 20 range.

This probably, Democrats are constricted by geographical disadvantages by both gerrymandering and the natural flow of their base into clustered urban regions. On the other hand, there are multiple seats Republicans frankly have no business holding and can easily be taken out, while others might have new found vulnerabilities due to demographic shifts, while still others could be dragged down by the top of the ticket. If the Democrats get anything less than 12, it means they dropped the ball, but breaching past 25 would require a major gamechanger, like a massive Trump meltdown or a nasty convention that irreparably splits the Republican base even further than it currently is.

[Talleyrand]

They can probably get to around 200 (aka around what they got in 2012) on a good night. Beyond that it gets pretty difficult.

[publicunofficial]

Assuming ceiling means everything falls perfectly into place and an at-least 2006 level wave hits the House, probably 220-230. That's far from realistic though.

Democrats realized too late that Trump 1) Was going to be the GOP nominee and 2) Was going to be a huge boon for them. Dropped the ball on numerous districts. VA-02, PA-06, PA-07, IN-02, MI-04, WV-02, FL-06, FL-07, OH-14, IL-13, NJ-03, and MI-08 are all seats that should be vulnerable but currently have terrible nominees or no candidates at all. There are also numerous seats where Democrats got serviceable recruits, but could've done so much better. CA-10, CA-21, NY-21, AZ-02, and IL-12 all fall into this category.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

210-215 seats is their absolute ceiling.  I would peg it as a 99.9% chance that the Republicans maintain the House until the districts are redrawn.

[The Other Castro]

210-215 seats is their absolute ceiling.  I would peg it as a 99.9% chance that the Republicans maintain the House until the districts are redrawn.

Username checks out.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Basically, the realistic ceiling in any election during this redistricting cycle is right at a majority (215-220)...and everything would have to go perfectly in order to hit it. There aren't going to be enough GOP House members who are willing to wrap themselves in the Trumpian flag nor not be able to avoid association in order for Democrats to win any sort of respectable majority in any environment.