How can Trump win Virginia?

[Spark]

How would he be able to offset the totals in NoVa and the D.C. Suburbs to win the state?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

How would he be able to offset the totals in NoVa and the D.C. Suburbs to win the state?

Same way he wins everywhere, exploit racism in white suburbs.

[Redban]

Tough state. Trump is better served targeting PA, MI, WI, and NH before he comes here. If he can, he should also look into Minnesota, Oregon, Maine's 2nd district, and Washington before he comes here too.

In 2012, for example, Romney won all of Virginia minus NOVA by over 90,000 votes (versus 1,500 or so for McCain in 2008). However, Romney gained nothing compared to McCain in NOVA; hence, he lost the state. That NOVA didn't shift to Romney in 2012 indicates that NOVA is inelastic.

Therefore, Trump can only max out the votes in all of Virginia minus NOVA, and there are not enough of those voters to overcome the sizable 200,000 deficit that NOVA will create.

[Sir Mohamed]

Folks, folks that’s pretty easy: Picking Gilmore as running mate! Drumpf/Gilmore 2016! #GILMENTUM

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Pick a general/admiral as VP candidate and make national security / military a yuge focus of the campaign.

[Ljube]

It is possible.

[Stranger in a strange land]

How would he be able to offset the totals in NoVa and the D.C. Suburbs to win the state?

Same way he wins everywhere, exploit racism in white suburbs.

Except that NOVA Suburbs:

1) Aren't that white
2) Mostly contain government employees and contractors

He's going to get blown out in Arlington, Alexandria, and Fairfax County. He'll lose Loudon and Prince William badly, 5-10 points worse than a generic R would. There aren't enough votes for him in the rest of the state to make up the deficit.

[heatcharger]

Nearly impossible. Romney lost NOVA (Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, Arlington, & Alexandria) by about 200,000. He lost the state by about 150,000. Let's just say Trump does about 5% worse across the region, then he would lose NOVA by 315,000. Trump would need to pick up about 265,000 in the rest of the state.
One area I'd expect Trump to do better is Virginia Beach, where Romney won by about 5,000. Even if Trump won by Reagan-like 75-25 margin, he'd win by about 100,000. I just don't think there's enough rural population across the state to make up the rest, and also I'm assuming there's no population growth, which is completely untrue in the outer DC suburbs. He can't expect to win VA by doing worse than Romney in NOVA.

[Suck my caulk]

Virginia is a Southern state, therefore Trump will clearly win. He should not even waste resources campaigning there, instead focusing on the swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.

[Green Line]

Virginia is a Southern state, therefore Trump will clearly win. He should not even waste resources campaigning there, instead focusing on the swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.

Lol.  Wisconsin is not a swing state, it's safe D.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Virginia is a Southern state, therefore Trump will clearly win. He should not even waste resources campaigning there, instead focusing on the swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.

[HAnnA MArin County]

It is isn't possible.

This.

The problem for Trump is that the rural white areas in what Republicans like to call the "real Virginia" are bleeding population while Northern/fake Virginia is gaining population.

[AGA]

Not unless he wins by a substantial margin nationally.

[RaphaelDLG]

Talk about boosting military spending, largely punt NOVA, crush among rural whites in the rest of the state, and hope that "the blacks" near the beach don't turn out like they did for Obama. 

It's not impossible for Trump and certainly very possible for a generic R candidate to win Virginia, "muh Virginia safe D" atlas meme aside.  It WILL be to the right of Wisconsin in 2016 (probably not 2020), maybe also PA and NH.

[NeverAgain]

Virginia is a Southern state, therefore Trump will clearly win. He should not even waste resources campaigning there, instead focusing on the swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.

We here in NoVa would enjoy your statistics on the matter .

[Anna Komnene]

I'm pretty sure Virginia would vote for a sack of potatoes before she voted for Trump.

I don't know.  I used to live in Virginia, and I don't see Trump being a good fit there.  He offends too many people.

[Heisenberg]

An ordinary Republican wins Virginia by narrowing the deficit in NOVA and rack up large margins elsewhere. I don't think Trump could do that, though.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

More likely than PA.

[President Johnson]

More likely than PA.

I agree. But he should heavily invest in both.

[President Johnson]

Pick a general/admiral as VP candidate and make national security / military a yuge focus of the campaign.

That would hurt him with voters who want someone experienced on the ticket. A general should be Defense Secretary, but TRUMP needs a political VP.

[Kingpoleon]

Run up the margins in Western Virginia and southern Richmond suburbs very slightly. Combine that with the Cuccinelli 2013 map and he could win.

[Human]

He simply can't.

[Camaro33]

Campaign hard in rural VA and VA beach area and try to match the 2014 senate map or 2013 Cucinelli/McCauliffe map. Both those losses were close, and turning up turnout may be able to hit those numbers and at least have a shot.

[Ebowed]

Trump can't win Virginia, or the election.  Stick a fork in him, he's done.

[Wisconsin+17]

With the margins in now Safe D Florida? He's gonna need VA and Colorado, now. And he's gonna have to shore up Arizona.