How can Trump win Virginia?

[EliteLX]

It's too late, his image is far too set in stone for educated suburban voters.

He can't.

[Seriously?]

You guys make it like a 4-5% shift, which will be necessary for Trump to WIN the election, won't be enough to win Virginia, which pretty much trends very slightly Republican to the national election numbers.

How does Trump win Virginia? He comes to within .5% of Hillary in the popular vote or he beats her outright nationally. It's really that simple. Virginia will likely follow the national result.

[ElectionsGuy]

Trump is a worse fit for Virginia than just about any other swing state. His appeal as a candidate fits best to blue collar, low income and low education rural whites, which is exactly what Virginia is shifting away from. The only thing he can do is hope for a divided Democratic party with low turnout and enthusiasm and try to maximize his support among the Appalachian areas of the state and rural whites. This is why he'll do so well in Kentucky and West Virginia but is more likely going to lose here.

[RaphaelDLG]

Trump is a worse fit for Virginia than just about any other swing state. His appeal as a candidate fits best to blue collar, low income and low education rural whites, which is exactly what Virginia is shifting away from. The only thing he can do is hope for a divided Democratic party with low turnout and enthusiasm and try to maximize his support among the Appalachian areas of the state and rural whites. This is why he'll do so well in Kentucky and West Virginia but is more likely going to lose here.

Key word:  Shifting, not shifted

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Win unprecedented margins and turnout in Appalachia, however unlikely that may be.

[Anna Komnene]

Campaign hard in rural VA and VA beach area and try to match the 2014 senate map or 2013 Cucinelli/McCauliffe map. Both those losses were close, and turning up turnout may be able to hit those numbers and at least have a shot.

Interesting point.  When I think about it, Trump is pretty much Cuccinelli, and Hillary is pretty much McAuliffe.  The YUGE difference is that this is a Presidential year, and Virginia randomly holds its gubernatorial elections on off-years.  1,614,175 more people voted in 2012 than in 2013.  That kind of turnout wouldn't have helped Cuccinelli, and it won't help Trump either.

[ElectionsGuy]

Trump is a worse fit for Virginia than just about any other swing state. His appeal as a candidate fits best to blue collar, low income and low education rural whites, which is exactly what Virginia is shifting away from. The only thing he can do is hope for a divided Democratic party with low turnout and enthusiasm and try to maximize his support among the Appalachian areas of the state and rural whites. This is why he'll do so well in Kentucky and West Virginia but is more likely going to lose here.

Colorado?  At least VA has VA-09 where Trump will do better than Romney.  What the heck does Colorado have for him?

Yeah, Colorado is bad too and arguably worse. I do think whatever problems Trump has in the Denver area are much smaller than the problems he has in NoVA. Colorado doesn't really have anything but the net amount of problems may be close.

[Wisconsin+17]

Trump's a much poorer fit for Colorado on the R side than Virginia on the R side. Virginia he could win with sufficient turnout. Colorade, there's just not a large enough demographic behind him.

[VPH]

I don't think he can do it, but there's technically a route to victory buried somewhere in the state. Here's what it entails. (some of these are highly unrealistic)

1. Do better among black voters than Romney did. This might help push him over the top if he were to keep things close. (Highly unlikely)
2. Don't get blown out in the suburbs of DC and Richmond, which again, is probably not going to happen. (Almost definitely not happening)
3. Run up the margins in SW Virginia (Pretty likely)
4. Do well among evangelical voters (So-so likelihood)
5. Invest heavily in advertising and develop a strong ground game (not too likely)

[Mr. Reactionary]

He'd need depressed turnout for the Dems. Romney got more votes for a Republican Presidential candidate in Virginia history and still lost.

[Adam Griffin]

He'll win Wisconsin before he wins Virginia; it's going to be to the left of it in all future elections. It's gone, gone, gone for the GOP, unless they run some low-energy guy like Kasich against a Democratic candidate like Sanders. Lots of NIMBYs and latte liberals in NoVA.

[Desroko]

Trump is a worse fit for Virginia than just about any other swing state. His appeal as a candidate fits best to blue collar, low income and low education rural whites, which is exactly what Virginia is shifting away from. The only thing he can do is hope for a divided Democratic party with low turnout and enthusiasm and try to maximize his support among the Appalachian areas of the state and rural whites. This is why he'll do so well in Kentucky and West Virginia but is more likely going to lose here.

Colorado?  At least VA has VA-09 where Trump will do better than Romney.  What the heck does Colorado have for him?

Colorado's electorate is significantly whiter (and importantly, much less black), much less wealthy, slightly more male, and moderately less educated. Virginia is the diverse, educated, upscale suburb that people mistakenly assume Colorado to be.