How can TRUMP win without Florida?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 04:57:44 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  How can TRUMP win without Florida?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: How can TRUMP win without Florida?  (Read 1514 times)
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: June 21, 2016, 01:39:49 PM »

How can TRUMP win without the Sunshine State?

Florida may be a tough one; maybe even harder than Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. I'm still confidant he will capture the state's 29 electoral votes. But if not, is it already over?

The most realistic way I see is that here (possibly with Wisconsin and New Hampshire):



272 - 266


Without Virginia:



273 - 265

Without Virginia and New Hampshire (without ME-2 would produce a 269-269 tie and give him the election through the House):



270 - 268
Logged
Green Line
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,577
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: June 21, 2016, 01:42:34 PM »

I think your first map is pretty much his only possibly path to victory without Florida.  I say no way he wins Wisconsin but not Florida.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: June 21, 2016, 01:45:28 PM »

Well all the maps with Wisconsin in his corner are not viable, given that Trump has polled extremely bad in Wisconsin since the day he announced. Despite what Wisconsin's demographics suggest, he appears to have no chance there. Especially with no campaign and no cash.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: June 21, 2016, 01:53:24 PM »

Well all the maps with Wisconsin in his corner are not viable, given that Trump has polled extremely bad in Wisconsin since the day he announced. Despite what Wisconsin's demographics suggest, he appears to have no chance there. Especially with no campaign and no cash.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html

Yep...map 1 is the only one that's slightly realistic. 
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: June 21, 2016, 01:54:37 PM »

Trump isn't polling well in WI, but he's also polling terribly EVERYWHERE (including Utah). Does that make every state safe D? VA will not vote R before FL, no way that happens.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: June 21, 2016, 01:56:55 PM »

Trump isn't polling well in WI, but he's also polling terribly EVERYWHERE (including Utah). Does that make every state safe D? VA will not vote R before FL, no way that happens.

Likely correct. Some obeservers wrote that he may do well in Wisconsin due to the large white population. Even higher than in Pennsylvania.
Logged
Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,144
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: June 21, 2016, 01:57:32 PM »

Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire are his must win states.
Logged
MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,380


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: June 21, 2016, 01:58:45 PM »

How can TRUMP win without the Sunshine State?

Florida may be a tough one; maybe even harder than Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. I'm still confidant he will capture the state's 29 electoral votes. But if not, is it already over?

The most realistic way I see is that here (possibly with Wisconsin and New Hampshire):



272 - 266


Without Virginia:



273 - 265

Without Virginia and New Hampshire (without ME-2 would produce a 269-269 tie and give him the election through the House):



270 - 268

His path to victory is surely narrow.
Logged
Hammy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,711
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: June 21, 2016, 03:17:41 PM »

Trump isn't polling well in WI, but he's also polling terribly EVERYWHERE (including Utah). Does that make every state safe D? VA will not vote R before FL, no way that happens.

Likely correct. Some obeservers wrote that he may do well in Wisconsin due to the large white population. Even higher than in Pennsylvania.

Trump isn't polling well in WI, but he's also polling terribly EVERYWHERE (including Utah). Does that make every state safe D? VA will not vote R before FL, no way that happens.

Trump has been behind by close to ten points on an almost consistent basis in Wisconsin.
Logged
Human
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 446
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: June 21, 2016, 03:18:49 PM »

He can't win without Florida. It's almost impossible.
Logged
Redban
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,929


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: June 21, 2016, 03:22:04 PM »

If he can swing PA, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Virginia (or an appropriate combination of these 5 states), then he can survive a Florida loss. He could also try for New Hampshire, Colorado, and Iowa.

I don't like his chances without Florida though.
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: June 21, 2016, 03:31:47 PM »

No Republican has been elected without Florida since 1924, and it won't happen this year, either.
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,802
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: June 21, 2016, 03:32:07 PM »

He can't

/ thread
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: June 21, 2016, 04:11:02 PM »

Map one is a very distant possibility, but FL is, in all likelihood, a must-win state for Trump.

Trump isn't polling well in WI, but he's also polling terribly EVERYWHERE (including Utah). Does that make every state safe D? VA will not vote R before FL, no way that happens.

It's certainly unlikely that he'll win VA while losing FL, but him winning WI while losing FL is not even remotely plausible.
Logged
LLR
LongLiveRock
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,956


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: June 21, 2016, 04:18:04 PM »

You must remember that trump winning Florida would display a huge issue with Hispanics so even if he won the popular vote, winning Florida would certify wins in Nevada and Colorado
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: June 21, 2016, 04:34:33 PM »

I can't see Hillary losing Wisconsin or Virginia, both of which are terrible Trump fits. Colorado is a pretty difficult one for Trump too.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.082 seconds with 12 queries.