Of all the states that have a Democratic governor now....
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  Of all the states that have a Democratic governor now....
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Poll
Question: ...which state is hardest for a strong Republican gubernatorial candidate to win even under ideal circumstances?
#1
California
 
#2
Hawaii
 
#3
Washington
 
#4
Oregon
 
#5
Montana
 
#6
Minnesota
 
#7
Colorado
 
#8
Virginia
 
#9
Delaware
 
#10
Vermont
 
#11
Connecticut
 
#12
Rhode Island
 
#13
Missouri
 
#14
Louisiana
 
#15
New Hampshire
 
#16
West Virginia
 
#17
Pennsylvania
 
#18
New York
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 82

Author Topic: Of all the states that have a Democratic governor now....  (Read 3010 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: June 21, 2016, 07:21:35 PM »

I'd say California.
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Skye
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« Reply #1 on: June 21, 2016, 07:26:05 PM »

Either Cali or New York.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #2 on: June 21, 2016, 08:04:09 PM »

A unique, special kind of Republican can win California. New York is nigh-impossible post-Pataki era.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #3 on: June 21, 2016, 08:20:48 PM »

The one which hasn't elected one since 1988(Delaware).
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Vega
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« Reply #4 on: June 21, 2016, 09:47:32 PM »

Hawaii, mainly because of the complete and total lack of viable candidates.

California is also fairly hard to imagine a Republican winning statewide, though they do have a better bench then other states. Ditto for NY.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #5 on: June 21, 2016, 09:55:24 PM »

California. It's a one party state, Republicans are basically just a formality there.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: June 21, 2016, 09:56:52 PM »

Democrats are really helped by Washington being in a presidential year. McKenna likely would've won in 2010 or 2014.

I'll still say California though.
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JMT
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« Reply #7 on: June 22, 2016, 12:10:08 PM »

California
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #8 on: June 22, 2016, 01:07:26 PM »

Probably California, though HI and NY are candidates.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #9 on: June 22, 2016, 03:31:58 PM »


Not New Hampshire?
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: June 22, 2016, 04:41:12 PM »

California or Delaware.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #11 on: June 22, 2016, 04:42:19 PM »

Hawaii

Enough Democrats in-fighting against one Kashkari/pre-scandal Schwarzeneggar-esque Republican could cause a flip in California...snails chance, but still a little possible.

Lingle was pretty much the last line of Republicans tried there, and if Abercrombie couldn't cause enough dissatisfaction with Democrats there, then it's pretty clear a turd with a (D) would win before any Republican over there.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #12 on: June 23, 2016, 12:44:55 AM »

Democrats are really helped by Washington being in a presidential year. McKenna likely would've won in 2010 or 2014.

I'll still say California though.
Washington for IceSpear's reasons. In California (the second hardest IMO) it's during midterm years, and  there's the top two system, but this year's Senate race tells us that the California Democrats know what to do to avoid even the possibility of the "top two trap" sinking them.
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« Reply #13 on: June 23, 2016, 06:14:02 AM »

Hawaii

Enough Democrats in-fighting against one Kashkari/pre-scandal Schwarzeneggar-esque Republican could cause a flip in California...snails chance, but still a little possible.

Lingle was pretty much the last line of Republicans tried there, and if Abercrombie couldn't cause enough dissatisfaction with Democrats there, then it's pretty clear a turd with a (D) would win before any Republican over there.

There's a chance that Hawaii's Democratic machinery could throw up an actual consevadem, forcing Progressives and Republicans into a twisted alliance (kind of like Alaska '14)
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #14 on: June 23, 2016, 08:40:10 AM »

New York
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #15 on: June 23, 2016, 01:16:26 PM »

On the surface, I'd say Washington or Oregon since they have the longest streak(s) of electing Democratic Governors, but lately the races there seem to be getting closer.

I'll go with New York or California, with Hawaii close behind.
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Badger
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« Reply #16 on: June 24, 2016, 02:54:58 PM »

Probably California, though HI and NY are candidates.

I'd say NY before CA, but basically agree.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #17 on: June 26, 2016, 09:34:58 AM »

Probably California.  Too many minority voters and one of the few states where Dems have their turnout act together in midterms
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Horsemask
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« Reply #18 on: June 26, 2016, 03:21:51 PM »

Delaware
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JoeyJoeJoe
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« Reply #19 on: July 03, 2016, 03:13:15 PM »

Louisiana
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #20 on: July 03, 2016, 04:42:17 PM »

Hawaii, maybe California. 
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #21 on: July 07, 2016, 05:40:29 PM »

California. Pete Wilson and 187 was the Pyrrhic victory that sent the CAGOP into its decline and Hurricane Arnold finished it off. I'd venture to say that for at least the next couple decades, Republicans will not win statewide again. Now if the legislature would get rid of that independent redistricting board, we could reduce the number of Republicans in Congress from 14 to at most 6.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #22 on: July 08, 2016, 12:00:57 PM »
« Edited: July 08, 2016, 12:04:31 PM by Virginia »

Now if the legislature would get rid of that independent redistricting board, we could reduce the number of Republicans in Congress from 14 to at most 6.

That looks like it could happen all on its own by 2022 - 2026. As I understand it, CA Republicans could lose an additional 2 - 3 seats or more alone in November, which would continue a devastating trend for the Cali GOP that has gone largely uninterrupted since the late 90s.

Trump has arguably put California Republicans in a worse spot than Wilson ever could. Almost half the Hispanic electorate (national) are Millennials, and with so many in California, their first impressions of the Republican party have been very hostile. There is no hope for them in California at this rate.

If it were up to me, I would just continue pushing for redistricting reform nationwide. Even trying to repeal it in California could set back that effort for little additional gains.
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #23 on: July 08, 2016, 01:03:32 PM »

I want to say Hawaii.
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #24 on: July 25, 2016, 01:32:46 AM »

California
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