Is Trump Campaign Crumbling? Will It lead to "Hillaryslide'?

[ericpolitico]

Is it too early to say Trump's campaign is crumbling?
Firing Cory, money crisis, lagging in poll, no organizational structure, etc etc

Will Hillary win a landslide victory?

[Wisconsin+17]

Said it awhile ago. Looking increasingly bleak.

[IceSpear]

I think this is the 10th thread asking this in the past week.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

It's not possible for her to win in a landslide because of how many people that will simply never vote Democrat. However, everyone that is willing to vote for Hillary in some circumstance, certainly will. She could get anywhere from 51% to 54%.

[Seriously?]

Continue to beat that horse until it's double dead, please. This question is as ridiculous now as it was the other 20 times it was asked by red avatars.

It's June. Campaigns that appear to be "crumbling" in June are resurrected in July. Five months is an eternity in politics. How did that second Carter term go again?

[Wisconsin+17]

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I'm a red avatar?

[Seriously?]

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I'm a red avatar?

You're not the OP.

[ProudModerate2]

Right now, it can easily be described as "crumbling" and un-organized.
trump is trying to play on the upper-grader's playground, when he is conducting his campaign like a kindergartener.

[Virginiá]

It's June. Campaigns that appear to be "crumbling" in June are resurrected in July. Five months is an eternity in politics. How did that second Carter term go again?

This is not the same at all. Trump's campaign has no money, bare bones staff and a shortage of surrogates. You can't just fully build out on fundraising and infrastructure in a month. On top of this, it's Trump himself who keeps screwing up big, so I don't get how he plans on fixing that. It's clear he can't control himself.

But yes, something could happen to Hillary, or Trump could somehow restrain himself and somehow build a presidential election-sized campaign less than half a year from election day. That's all technically possible, but so far Trump has shown no ability to stop digging himself into a hole. There is zero reason to think he will start now. Look at the past month. This was a critical time period and he just blew it, not only blowing it, but actually damaging himself badly in this span of time.

[Inmate Trump]

If the GOP had nominated almost anyone other than Trump, I'd say Hillary would have no chance.

So many people dislike her.

But so many people dislike Trump more. I don't know if it'll be a landslide, but I think she'll win for sure.

[Seriously?]

It's June. Campaigns that appear to be "crumbling" in June are resurrected in July. Five months is an eternity in politics. How did that second Carter term go again?

This is not the same at all. Trump's campaign has no money, bare bones staff and a shortage of surrogates. You can't just fully build out on fundraising and infrastructure in a month. On top of this, it's Trump himself who keeps screwing up big, so I don't get how he plans on fixing that. It's clear he can't control himself.

Trump can sell a building and use it to fund his campaign if he wants to. He won the GOP nomination spending a lot less than his opponents. He can do the same in the general.

[ag]

Far too early. At this point it can go either way.

[Wells]

It's June. Campaigns that appear to be "crumbling" in June are resurrected in July. Five months is an eternity in politics. How did that second Carter term go again?

This is not the same at all. Trump's campaign has no money, bare bones staff and a shortage of surrogates. You can't just fully build out on fundraising and infrastructure in a month. On top of this, it's Trump himself who keeps screwing up big, so I don't get how he plans on fixing that. It's clear he can't control himself.

Trump can sell a building and use it to fund his campaign if he wants to. He won the GOP nomination spending a lot less than his opponents. He can do the same in the general.

Hasn't this argument been refuted one hundred times already? The November electorate is a lot different than the GOP primary electorate: it has a lot more minorities. (The ones Trump spent an entire campaign demonizing and attacking.) Not only that but Trump will be attacked a lot more and a lot worse in the next five months than in the primary campaign. He's gotten the support of the Republican base, but he is going to have a hard time finding any support outside of that unless he actually starts running a campaign instead of just a tour of the USA.

As for Trump selling a building to fund his campaign, Trump said he isn't planning on spending much money on his campaign. Of course, that could change, but his organization right now is so terrible that it is very unlikely that the money would be very effective. Here's a sampling of what his money is going to right now:

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It's a right-wing website.

Do you really think Trump would do any better if he just had more money? He'd be sending ten million dollars to his family instead of just one million.

[Seriously?]

It's June. Campaigns that appear to be "crumbling" in June are resurrected in July. Five months is an eternity in politics. How did that second Carter term go again?

This is not the same at all. Trump's campaign has no money, bare bones staff and a shortage of surrogates. You can't just fully build out on fundraising and infrastructure in a month. On top of this, it's Trump himself who keeps screwing up big, so I don't get how he plans on fixing that. It's clear he can't control himself.

Trump can sell a building and use it to fund his campaign if he wants to. He won the GOP nomination spending a lot less than his opponents. He can do the same in the general.

Hasn't this argument been refuted one hundred times already? The November electorate is a lot different than the GOP primary electorate: it has a lot more minorities. (The ones Trump spent an entire campaign demonizing and attacking.) Not only that but Trump will be attacked a lot more and a lot worse in the next five months than in the primary campaign. He's gotten the support of the Republican base, but he is going to have a hard time finding any support outside of that unless he actually starts running a campaign instead of just a tour of the USA.

As for Trump selling a building to fund his campaign, Trump said he isn't planning on spending much money on his campaign. Of course, that could change, but his organization right now is so terrible that it is very unlikely that the money would be very effective. Here's a sampling of what his money is going to right now:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's a right-wing website.

Do you really think Trump would do any better if he just had more money? He'd be sending ten million dollars to his family instead of just one million.

Trump has a lot of the infrastructure he needs in house, including his jet and locations to hold rallies. Of course, he is going to use them and bill the campaign accordingly to avoid self-dealing across the different Trump Hold Cos.

With that said, the money part of the equation is a tad bit overstated. Trump gets plenty of free press going on media programs that Hillary! and the other candidates decline. It's better than spending millions on commercials during that program where he gets his message directly across to the voters.

Like or hate Trump, he has no problems appearing on MSNBC, CNN or Fox. He has done sit-down interviews with all of the weekend talking heads. He'll do local media, if necessary. Part of his primary success is that he had no qualms doing interviews with anyone, even blatant opponents. With the exception of the Wisconsin ambush, it generally worked out.

Bottom line is that he won't need as many commercials, etc. with this strategy and can save money. You're basically talking about the difference between a businessman running a race, where costs are contained, and a politician in Hillary!.

The jury is out on this approach, but it worked fine in the primaries.

[Hermit For Peace]

If Trump spent the time needed to put his campaign in order, hired all the necessary people, did the fundraising....put his nose to the grindstone, he wouldn't have as much time to spend in front of the camera Hillary bashing.

I mean, what is more important? Gotta set priorities.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Hillary 55%
Trump 41%
LOL 4%

[Mike Thick]

Is it crumbling? Arguably. Is it fixable? Probably not, but I won't rule it out.

[Chief Justice Keef]

It's crumbling, but it's also reversible. Neither candidate is free from controversy this year.

[Tartarus Sauce]

It's June. Campaigns that appear to be "crumbling" in June are resurrected in July. Five months is an eternity in politics. How did that second Carter term go again?

This is not the same at all. Trump's campaign has no money, bare bones staff and a shortage of surrogates. You can't just fully build out on fundraising and infrastructure in a month. On top of this, it's Trump himself who keeps screwing up big, so I don't get how he plans on fixing that. It's clear he can't control himself.

Trump can sell a building and use it to fund his campaign if he wants to. He won the GOP nomination spending a lot less than his opponents. He can do the same in the general.

Except the man is tight fisted as hell, he's shown little willingness in his actions to actually spend his money if he thinks he can get things done for virtually no cost. He only begrudgingly donated his charity intake several months after raising it because he was being pestered by reporters about it. He claims he doesn't need to collect more than $300 million for campaign spending because he gets so much free press coverage. He makes money off of his own campaign by charging his own surrogates and staff for utilizing venues and services owned by his company.

This entire gig of his is one giant brand peddling operation that's allowing him to get massive amounts of free publicity and even make some money while doing it. Actually beefing up his ground game and organization by compensating for the deficit of the traditional party apparatus and donor networks which want little association with him requires Trump to actually dip deep into his own pockets. If he was serious about winning, he would have already begun that process.

And the general is a whole different ball game than the primaries, assuming that his strategy in the primaries will translate to a success in the general is a massive miscalculation and one he is readily making.

[Classic Conservative]

I think it may be recovering with Paul Manafort at the helm.

[IceSpear]

If the GOP had nominated almost anyone other than Trump, I'd say Hillary would have no chance.

So many people dislike her.

But so many people dislike Trump more. I don't know if it'll be a landslide, but I think she'll win for sure.

People vastly overestimate the importance of particular candidates. 90% of the country is already locked into their choice under any circumstances.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

If the GOP had nominated almost anyone other than Trump, I'd say Hillary would have no chance.

So many people dislike her.

But so many people dislike Trump more. I don't know if it'll be a landslide, but I think she'll win for sure.

People vastly overestimate the importance of particular candidates. 90% of the country is already locked into their choice under any circumstances.

I will say that this year, a lot of voters are thinking of voting third party.  I would not be surprised if this is a year where no candidate will get 50% of the vote.