Can Donald Trump win without Ohio?

[The Arizonan]

Conventional wisdom states that not one Republican has won the presidency without winning Ohio.

I'd say he can pull it off, but it just won't happen.

[IceSpear]

No. Ohio should be his most favorable Obama state. If he can't win that, he's getting Romney's numbers or worse.

[Wisconsin+17]

Not when he's losing Florida by 8.

[Maxwell]

Literally the only path that Trump has is through Ohio and Pennsylvania. If he loses either it's President Hillary Clinton.

[TJ in Oregon]

No. It is difficult enough to draw a map where any Republican wins without Ohio but considering Ohio is one of only a few swing states where Trump isn't much more unpopular than a normal politician, he has no chance at all without it.

[BuckeyeNut]

Literally the only path that Trump has is through Ohio and Pennsylvania. If he loses either it's President Hillary Clinton.

Pretty much this. Trump changes the map, and will play better in the Great Lakes region (read: Rustbelt) than the typical Republican, but he'll also play worse in the South and the West.

If he doesn't flip OH, he isn't flipping PA, and he certainly isn't flipping MI; which, IIRC, he said he would be campaigning in.

[Xing]

It's mathematically possible, but completely implausible. A loss in OH definitely means a loss in PA, and probably IA, too. The only Obama state I could see him winning if he lost OH is FL.

[Suck my caulk]

Assuming this scenario is plausible at all, I think Trump would get there by winning Pennsylvania, and losing Ohio, which as stated previously is not likely, but I suppose anything is possible. Trump is unlikely to win the populous northern Virginia suburbs, and therefore will likely lose Virginia. This is the most realistic map, I believe, for the scenario you gave. What is everybody's opinion of this?

http://www.270towin.com/maps/qoEXB

[ElectionsGuy]

No. Ohio should be his most favorable Obama state. If he can't win that, he's getting Romney's numbers or worse.

[IceSpear]

I just happened to read this article. The Clinton team thinks of all the Obama states, Trump has the best shot in Ohio.

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But apparently, they are very bullish on Florida.

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Maybe Quinnipiac is on to something after all?

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/hillary-clinton-path-victory-224228

[Hammy]

I say no--as others have pointed out he'd had to win an odd combination of other states, including Pennsylvania and Florida, and I just don't see Pennsylvania voting to the right of Ohio in any election, in this election in particular I don't see Florida doing so either.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

any other candidate would have a narrow-but-feasible path:

but it's obvious why that's out of the question here.

[Redban]

Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Maine 2nd district, and Colorado (or combination of them) can overcome the loss.

I don't like his chances in this route though. I think Ohio is a state he can win and should win.

[Mallow]

Assuming this scenario is plausible at all, I think Trump would get there by winning Pennsylvania, and losing Ohio, which as stated previously is not likely, but I suppose anything is possible. Trump is unlikely to win the populous northern Virginia suburbs, and therefore will likely lose Virginia. This is the most realistic map, I believe, for the scenario you gave. What is everybody's opinion of this?

http://www.270towin.com/maps/qoEXB

The biggest issue here (besides PA, obviously) is having CO voting to the right of OH in this election. With Trump on the ticket that just seems prohibitively unreasonable.

[The Other Castro]

All roads run through Ohio. Ohio, Ohio, Ohio.

[skoods]

Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Maine 2nd district, and Colorado (or combination of them) can overcome the loss.

I don't like his chances in this route though. I think Ohio is a state he can win and should win.

If Trump is losing Ohio, he's not winning any of the states you mentioned. Unless he loses Ohio by saying all Ohioans smell like stale urine.

[Human]

Donald Trump is absolutely not going to win without winning these three states:
1. Ohio
2. Pennsylvania
3. Florida

[/thread]

[Sir Mohamed]

Donald Trump is absolutely not going to win without winning these three states:
1. Ohio
2. Pennsylvania
3. Florida

[/thread]

I agree. Meaning, the Trumpster can’t win at all. And now his campaign is imploding even sooner than I expected.

[Redban]

Donald Trump is absolutely not going to win without winning these three states:
1. Ohio
2. Pennsylvania
3. Florida

[/thread]

Michigan can viably replace Pennsylvania though. Romney lost by nearly 10% only because he opposed the Detroit bailout. In 2008, McCain was polling near Obama (around 5%) before the economic collapse.

[ProudModerate2]

NO.
If he cant win Ohio, then there is no chance of him winning other rust-belt states like Pennsylvania.
So he would be sunk.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Donald Trump is absolutely not going to win without winning these three states:
1. Ohio
2. Pennsylvania
3. Florida

[/thread]

Michigan can viably replace Pennsylvania though. Romney lost by nearly 10% only because he opposed the Detroit bailout. In 2008, McCain was polling near Obama (around 5%) before the economic collapse.

Michigan is a long-shot Florida bypass, but there's no way he could win Michigan without Ohio.

[TDAS04]

No.

[/]

No