Can Hillary win without Pennsylvania?

[Xing]

It's obviously mathematically possible, but could you actually envision a scenario in which this happens? It seems like she would have to win Florida.

[MaxQue]

It's obviously mathematically possible, but could you actually envision a scenario in which this happens? It seems like she would have to win Florida.

With Trump, it's very possible Clinton does better in Florida than in Pennsylvania.

[ElectionsGuy]

The only scenario is losing Ohio and Pennsylvania while winning Florida. Highly improbable.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This is a Clinton win, 271-267. Yep, Utah allows her to override FL/OH/PA.

Here's a rather interesting tie scenario:

[they don't love you like i love you]

Yes. But honestly I don't possibly see how Trump gains more in western and rural Pennsylvania, where Romney already basically maxed out, to override the swings against him in metro Philly.

[IceSpear]

Yep, because of Florida. Hillary has the advantage of multiple paths to victory, whereas Trump really only has one realistic path (OH/PA/FL)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

In a popular vote tie, Clinton probably loses PA but wins FL.  So yes.

[Mehmentum]

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Clinton 281-257.  This is probably your popular vote tie, though CO and FL would be very close.

[EliteLX]

This is a Clinton win, 271-267. Yep, Utah allows her to override FL/OH/PA.

Here's a rather interesting tie scenario:

I'll eat a bowl of nails before the 2016 Republican Nominee loses Arizona and Utah but wins VA, OH, FL, and PA.

[Kingpoleon]

Either:

276-262

Or:

270 - 268

[RaphaelDLG]

Tim Russert Impersonation:  Florida, Florida, Florida

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Clinton 281-257.  This is probably your popular vote tie, though CO and FL would be very close.

I'm not really sure what you all are seeing for Trump in CO.  As far as I'm concerned, Clinton vs. Trump vs. Johnson looks like a perfect reprise of Hickenlooper vs. Tancredo vs. Maes.  Because Johnson doesn't have the same institutional support, he should lag Maes by a few %, but it's still very hard for me to see Clinton winning by anything less than 6% there.

So Trump is going to get less than 40% of the vote in Colorado???

[Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez]

Colorado is a state which has been polling very well for the Repubicans over the course of this political season.  I don't fully understand that, inasmuch as Colorado has a significant and growing Hispanic population, and it's independent voters are culturally liberal more often than not.  It's one of the states that appears to have a degree of "buyer's remorse" over voting for Obama, although it's not quilte clear to me why that is so.

Hillary CAN win without Pennsylvania if current trends continue.  The white vote is NOT trending Republican equally across the board.  The Scot-Irish white vote (minimal ethnic identification, long-term family rootedness in America, background very much in "Border States", Upper South, and areas of the Northeast and Midwest that had Southern sympathies during the Civil War) have provided the HEAVIEST swing toward the GOP; other white voters, not so much.  Indeed, it's pretty clear that white voters in New England, on a Presidential level, have turned toward the Democrats at least somewhat.  New Hampshire is the MOST Republican New England state, and a state that functions as a tax haven, and even New Hampshire is AT LEAST a "lean Democrat) state.

What WILL continue is the movement of Hispanics into the Democratic Party, and white Hispanics, especially.  This includes the growing Hispanic population in Arizona, and the Cuban population in Florida, the latter of which being a traditional partisan Republican (but not rigidly conservative) constituency.  Had Trump not "gone there" on immigration, he'd probably have been immensely popular with Florida Cubans, who have been gradually shifting toward the Democrats.  Instead, Florida's Cubans may prove decisive in keeping Florida Democratic at the Presidential level.  Trump COULD mend these fences, but I'm not sure he will do so.

The only scenario is losing Ohio and Pennsylvania while winning Florida. Highly improbable.

This is MUCH more probable than in the past.

[Suburbia]

Yes, Hillary can win without Pennsylvania. She can win FL and it would still be over for Trump.