Predict: FL-13
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  Predict: FL-13
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Poll
Question: Who will win FL-13 in November?
#1
Charlie Crist (D)
 
#2
David Jolly (R)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 48

Author Topic: Predict: FL-13  (Read 998 times)
JMT
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« on: June 22, 2016, 12:08:55 AM »

I suspect Charlie Crist will win, but it will be close.
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VPH
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« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2016, 12:29:02 AM »

Crist by 4
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2016, 11:47:30 AM »

I sure hope Jolly wins, but Changing Charlie will probably prevail.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: June 22, 2016, 02:03:48 PM »

Considering the PVI of this district, I don't see how Crist isn't favored, at this point.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #4 on: June 22, 2016, 02:36:38 PM »

Considering the PVI of this district, I don't see how Crist isn't favored, at this point.
Where are the PVI's for the new Florida districts? This is only D+3, right? Did FL-26 change? If so, what's its new PVI?
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #5 on: June 22, 2016, 03:28:14 PM »

I sure hope it's Jolly.
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Green Line
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« Reply #6 on: June 22, 2016, 03:34:24 PM »

Jolly will win.  The people are sick and tired of Flippin' Charlie.

All they have to do is show this ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9uirf03VYY4
It's so damning.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #7 on: June 22, 2016, 04:41:49 PM »

Jolly has the chance to put a silver stake through Crist's heart once and for all.
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FEMA Camp Administrator
Cathcon
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« Reply #8 on: June 22, 2016, 04:43:33 PM »

Does Crist have a sickness? This is like, what, the third time he's run for something since being rejected by the GOP?
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #9 on: June 22, 2016, 05:10:27 PM »

Does Crist have a sickness? This is like, what, the third time he's run for something since being rejected by the GOP?
Correct.
1. In 2010 he jumped ship to run for the Senate as an independent.

2. In 2014 he ran for governor as a Democrat.

3. In 2016 he's running for FL-13 as a Democrat. I hope Changing Charlie loses. He has no real political views.
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Vega
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« Reply #10 on: June 22, 2016, 06:00:36 PM »

Does Crist have a sickness? This is like, what, the third time he's run for something since being rejected by the GOP?

He just really likes campaigning and is rather good at it. Governing? From his Republican days, not so much.

Personally, by all accounts, he is a really loathsome guy.
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Green Line
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« Reply #11 on: June 22, 2016, 06:02:54 PM »

Does Crist have a sickness? This is like, what, the third time he's run for something since being rejected by the GOP?

He just really likes campaigning and is rather good at it. Governing? From his Republican days, not so much.

Personally, by all accounts, he is a really loathsome guy.

He hasn't been too good at winning those campaigns.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #12 on: June 22, 2016, 07:02:51 PM »

Crist should win the newly drawn district as he won against Scott in Pinellas by 11 points in 2014, but I would love for him to lose and finally end his political career in the Democratic Party. Then he can start in the Libertarian party Smiley
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Maxwell
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« Reply #13 on: June 22, 2016, 07:05:04 PM »

Despite whatever polling says, I think Crist wins because this is his home and it's more Democratic in terms of PVI than it used to be. Jolly will do better than a Republican in this district should, though.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
ChairmanSanchez
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« Reply #14 on: June 22, 2016, 07:21:59 PM »

Crist should win the newly drawn district as he won against Scott in Pinellas by 11 points in 2014, but I would love for him to lose and finally end his political career in the Democratic Party. Then he can start in the Libertarian party Smiley
The Libertarian candidate made waves in that very district during the 2013 special election, and it is also worth noting that if the Libertarian Party takes the "socially liberal/fiscally responsible Smiley" route, there'd be room for Charlie in it.
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Green Line
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« Reply #15 on: June 22, 2016, 07:34:05 PM »

Crist won this district by 11 points in 2014, but he was running against one of the worst candidates possible in Rick Scott.  This time he's running against an incumbent, and a moderate who is beloved by the people of St. Petersborough.
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JMT
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« Reply #16 on: June 22, 2016, 08:36:11 PM »

What is the PVI for the new FL-13 anyways? I've only heard it is more Democratic than before, but I don't know the latest PVI number. Wikipedia still describes the district as R+1
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #17 on: June 22, 2016, 08:41:56 PM »

What is the PVI for the new FL-13 anyways? I've only heard it is more Democratic than before, but I don't know the latest PVI number. Wikipedia still describes the district as R+1
Cook says the new district has moved "four points to the left," so I'd assume D+3.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #18 on: June 22, 2016, 08:44:46 PM »

What is the PVI for the new FL-13 anyways? I've only heard it is more Democratic than before, but I don't know the latest PVI number. Wikipedia still describes the district as R+1
Cook says the new district has moved "four points to the left," so I'd assume D+3.

This is correct. For the record, Jolly himself said the district was "Unwinnable for any Republican" a few months ago.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #19 on: June 22, 2016, 08:47:14 PM »

Crist +idk
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #20 on: June 22, 2016, 09:17:31 PM »


D+4
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #21 on: June 22, 2016, 11:28:35 PM »

It's not like Jolly is a particularly fearsome incumbent either. He won the low-turnout special election by a slim margin, then ran unopposed in 2014 after Dems failed to recruit a second candidate. On top of that, he's a terrible fundraiser.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #22 on: June 23, 2016, 08:05:31 AM »
« Edited: June 23, 2016, 08:08:07 AM by Nyvin »

This race certainly can't be rated tossup...the district has a good Dem lean, Crist is well liked in the area, Jolly is a bad fundraiser, the district is quite urban and has a heavy minority population now....what benefits does Jolly have to make this a tossup??

Jolly can't really even be considered an "incumbent" since it's a completely new district and even in the "old" district he only won in a special election by a nail-bitter finish and ran unopposed in the 2014 midterms!
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Brittain33
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« Reply #23 on: June 23, 2016, 08:58:04 AM »

The NRCC hates Jolly and won't give him any support. Since it looks like Hillary will have a turnout operation in Pinellas County and Trump won't, it's hard to see how Jolly overcomes the natural lean of this district against a candidate who, whatever his faults, is popular there.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #24 on: June 23, 2016, 09:25:55 AM »

Hope Charlie. I give him a 60% chance.
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