Is Donald Trump already finished?

[Sir Mohamed]

Is the Trumpster already done?

A brief summary:

- No money, no funny: He’s in deep trouble with campaign finances. No cash in his campaign pocket and GOP donors are either reluctant to give him a penny or have abandoned him at all. He isn’t liquid enough to fund large portions out of his own money; likely because he isn’t as rich as he claims or he’s even bankrupt. Without cash, no commercials, no staffers etc. That also hurts his image, because it proves that he isn’t as rich and successful as he always claims to be. And that he’s unable to get donations. If he’s unable to convince donors, how is he able to work with congress and renegotiating trade deals?

- The the next problem without cash: His campaign lacks organization and a ground operation. He has no campaign infrastructure, because he has no clue how to run a national campaign. And the party is not helping him.

- The party is divided and doesn’t support him. His support among elites is very thin. Continued talk of nuking him at the convention isn’t helpful at all. Others have already written off this election cycle.

- Polling numbers are in the toilet, especially with important voter groups (women, blacks, lations). His negative ratings are through the roof. It’s extremely difficult to turn that around, especially because he isn’t willing to change. He believes, that being a bully will deliver him the presidency as it delivered the nomination. He doesn’t get it, that a primary campaign is a complete different story than a general election campaign.

- Hillary and the Democrats just started to attack him and expose all his failures and lies. Many things are still in the doubt: Trump University, his tax returns and other lawsuits. All these things have the potential to worsen his numbers even further.


Looks like the Trumpster is already toast before the general election campaign hasn’t even fully started.

[Mike Thick]

I'm not willing to say his goose is cooked just yet, as stranger things have happened, but I don't really see a realistic way he can win at this point.

[Lyin' Steve]

He's only like six points behind Hillary even with those terrible numbers with demographic groups, and the stuff the democrats are attacking him for is the same stuff he got attacked for in the primary and it didn't hurt him.

[Redban]

1). The money issue requires too much insider knowledge to evaluate. How much does a candidate need to spend in order to win? Didn't Trump win the primary despite spending less money than most? Didn't Jeb Bush spend 30-40 million in New Hampshire just to finish 4th place?

2). I agree that a divided party hurts him. People like Romney, McCain, Bush 43, Bush 41, and Paul Ryan are giving no support or lukewarm support.

3). Polls fluctuate, and we are 5 months away from election day, with debates, conventions, and rallies still waiting to happen.

4).  And Trump has just started to attack Hillary and expose all her failures and lies. Many things are still in the doubt: the emails, Benghazi, and other scandals. All these things have the potential to worsen her numbers even further.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

For all these reasons, plus the gains Hillary is going to be made when Bernie Sanders throws his support behind her.

This is looking like a 15-point landslide for Clinton (55-40-5).  All Obama '12 states are safe.  NC is lean Clinton.  Battleground states are IN, MO, GA, AZ, MT.  Texas, Dakotas, South Carolina, and Mississippi are within reach but won't be contested by Clinton.

Stuff can happen between now and Election Day, but convincing normal, rational moderate voters to trust Donald Trump with the White House seems like a long-shot.

[Human]

No

The election is 5 months away. Anything could happen. Right now, Hillary has about an 80% chance of defeating Donald Trump, but anything could happen. Did you guys watch his speech he gave this morning? If not, I recommend watching it. His speech was absolutely beautiful. You guys have to remember that most voters have a short attention span. If Trump continues to give more speeches like the one he gave this morning, he could certainly win. You guys also have to remember that a recession may occur this year. Many predict that the Chinese housing bubble will finally pop this year. If China falls into a recession, it will likely have a profound impact on our economy as well.

I voted no. Donald Trump still has a chance of winning (sadly).

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Trump was supposed to be finished... how many times now? Wasn't he supposed to implode months ago?

I'm not saying he'll win and at this point Hillary is certainly favored, but let's not lose the focus.

[Ronnie]

Yeah, his goose is cooked.  He might try to turn things around at this point, but it's too late.  He needed to work overtime to build an infrastructure in key states and a good, working relationship with the Republican Party since the moment he won the Indiana primary and he did not do so.  Now, all the Dems' and the media's fire is focused squarely on Trump, and will prevent him from regaining his footing.

[Virginiá]

He's only like six points behind Hillary even with those terrible numbers with demographic groups, and the stuff the democrats are attacking him for is the same stuff he got attacked for in the primary and it didn't hurt him.

That seems debatable, though. He was polling horribly against Clinton throughout the primaries. I'm cautious to attribute that to the attack material, but honestly just because it didn't sway Republican primary voters doesn't mean it won't sway the broader electorate. If you go to the RCP Clinton v Trump page, he only has 11 polls where he is either ahead or tied, out of all those polls. Meanwhile in 2016, Clinton has posted quite a lot of comfortable leads, if not outright landslides.

I guess I wouldn't say he is definitely finished, as there is still time to go and it's technically possible he could stage a huge comeback, but as Bessell said, I don't see how he can win at this point. The only debate that seems to deserve any merit right now is approximately how much he will lose by. Until I see massive fundraising success and infrastructure build-out, combined with many more favorable (or at least tied) polls, I'm not giving Trump the benefit of the doubt.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Looking at the nationwide polls can be tricky, since it's not the popular vote edge that decides the election.

[Pyro]

Not yet. Don't underestimate the traditional incompetence of the Dems.

[jollyschwa]

Unfortunately no, four months is a ridiculously long time in politics.  It's Hillary's election to lose, but go ask Steph Curry how that worked out for him.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Looking at the nationwide polls can be tricky, since it's not the popular vote edge that decides the election.

At this point in the cycle the national numbers are a much better predictor of electoral results than individual state polls.  State polls don't really start to matter until September or so.  And if one candidate is leading by more than 5 points nationally, consistently, state polls are irrelevant.  The chance of one candidate losing by more than 2 points in the PV and winning the EV is basically zero.

Right now I'm extremely skeptical of the Pennsylvania polls.  His performance in the Keystone State is probably the one bright spot for Trump.  But he's polling worse in Ohio, and his national numbers don't seem to support Pennsylvania being in play.  I expect this trend to correct itself post-conventions.

[Seriously?]

Seriously?

I know you hate Donald Trump for whatever reason, MohamedChalid, but five months is an eternity in politics. Hillary! would not be finished right now if she were 5 points down.

How was President Dukakis' first term? President Romney for that matter? And that second Jimmy Carter term?

I swear it's a thread a day on Atlas with this same nonsense.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Seriously?

I know you hate Donald Trump for whatever reason, MohamedChalid, but five months is an eternity in politics. Hillary! would not be finished right now if she were 5 points down.

How was President Dukakis' first term? President Romney for that matter? And that second Jimmy Carter term?

I swear it's a thread a day on Atlas with this same nonsense.

If Vice President Bush went on record as needing to stop "all those Blacks who are rapists and criminals, like Willie Horton... some of them are good people, of course," made disparaging remarks about Dukakis's eyebrows and Greek heritage, said that NATO was basically useless if the Warsaw Pact wasn't broken up by the end of his first term, called for the dismantling of the Soviet Union, called for a trade war with Japan, and the GOP was fighting to unbind his delegates at the convention, party leaders refused to endorse him, and he had no funding... then that would be an apt comparison.

[Dr. Arch]

Seriously?

I know you hate Donald Trump for whatever reason, MohamedChalid, but five months is an eternity in politics. Hillary! would not be finished right now if she were 5 points down.

How was President Dukakis' first term? President Romney for that matter? And that second Jimmy Carter term?

I swear it's a thread a day on Atlas with this same nonsense.

This.
If Vice President Bush went on record as needing to stop "all those Blacks who are rapists and criminals, like Willie Horton... some of them are good people, of course," made disparaging remarks about Dukakis's eyebrows and Greek heritage, said that NATO was basically useless if the Warsaw Pact wasn't broken up by the end of his first term, called for the dismantling of the Soviet Union, called for a trade war with Japan, and the GOP was fighting to unbind his delegates at the convention, party leaders refused to endorse him, and he had no funding... then that would be an apt comparison.

[Hermit For Peace]

If he's not finished now then the debates will do the trick.

People think that he will demolish Hillary in the debates, but all he has is trash talking to fall back on. Hillary is politically knowledgeable and also a good debater. She'll make him sound like a fool.

[Virginiá]

Seriously?

I know you hate Donald Trump for whatever reason, MohamedChalid, but five months is an eternity in politics. Hillary! would not be finished right now if she were 5 points down.

How was President Dukakis' first term? President Romney for that matter? And that second Jimmy Carter term?

I swear it's a thread a day on Atlas with this same nonsense.

If Vice President Bush went on record as needing to stop "all those Blacks who are rapists and criminals, like Willie Horton... some of them are good people, of course," made disparaging remarks about Dukakis's eyebrows and Greek heritage, said that NATO was basically useless if the Warsaw Pact wasn't broken up by the end of his first term, called for the dismantling of the Soviet Union, called for a trade war with Japan, and the GOP was fighting to unbind his delegates at the convention, party leaders refused to endorse him, and he had no funding... then that would be an apt comparison.

Yeah, basically this. Seriously? you're acting like Trump is just another politician with standard, commonplace problems. Modern American politics has never experienced incompetence of this magnitude and he can't just fix it overnight. His campaign is not going to be able to catch up now as he is so far behind. And yes, ad campaigns do work, and they work especially well when there the person doesn't fight back. Hillary dominating the airwaves like this will affect him. He is not invincible, as his poll numbers show.

The least you could do is not act like everyone is dumb or unreasonable for thinking Trump's campaign is in serious trouble, because it is. You just can't (or won't) see it for god knows what reasons.

[Seriously?]

Seriously?

I know you hate Donald Trump for whatever reason, MohamedChalid, but five months is an eternity in politics. Hillary! would not be finished right now if she were 5 points down.

How was President Dukakis' first term? President Romney for that matter? And that second Jimmy Carter term?

I swear it's a thread a day on Atlas with this same nonsense.

If Vice President Bush went on record as needing to stop "all those Blacks who are rapists and criminals, like Willie Horton... some of them are good people, of course," made disparaging remarks about Dukakis's eyebrows and Greek heritage, said that NATO was basically useless if the Warsaw Pact wasn't broken up by the end of his first term, called for the dismantling of the Soviet Union, called for a trade war with Japan, and the GOP was fighting to unbind his delegates at the convention, party leaders refused to endorse him, and he had no funding... then that would be an apt comparison.

Yeah, basically this. Seriously? you're acting like Trump is just another politician with standard, commonplace problems. Modern American politics has never experienced incompetence of this magnitude and he can't just fix it overnight. His campaign is not going to be able to catch up now as he is so far behind. And yes, ad campaigns do work, and they work especially well when there the person doesn't fight back. Hillary dominating the airwaves like this will affect him. He is not invincible, as his poll numbers show.

The least you could do is not act like everyone is dumb or unreasonable for thinking Trump's campaign is in serious trouble, because it is. You just can't (or won't) see it for god knows what reasons.

You are being knee-jerk reactionary. At the end of the day, fundamentally Trump or Hillary! for that matter is no different than any other generic R or generic D candidate.

Once the conventions clear, you will have 35-39% of the electorate that are Democrats that will mainly vote for Hillary! 32-37% of the electorate that are Republicans that will mainly vote for Trump and the remaining 26-29% of the electorate that are Independents, who along with the D/R net split will more or less determine who the next POTUS is. (Sourcing: exit polls from 2004-2014)

Right now Hillary! is basically at the Obama 2012 final numbers with generally Registered Voter (not likely voter) polls and you are declaring the race over in June. It clearly is not. It's the ebb or flow of this particular cycle. It will flow back to Trump at some point as the parties unify.

The R/D split is pretty inelastic. Roughly 90% of Republicans don't vote for Democrats and roughly 90% Democrats don't vote for Republicans as a general rule if either of the partisans make it to the voting booth.

At the end of the day, who wins is generally determined by turnout (e.g. whether the electorate is even D/R (Bush 2004) vs. D+6 or D+7 (Obama 2008, 2012)). No one can say with any certainty what that number until the national polls start to tighten their LV screens after the conventions.

Additionally, if you look at the Fox News poll for example, the difference in spread was simply the difference in turnout. The poll that had the race basically a tie was just about an even sample. The poll that had a Hillary! lead was D+6 or +7. If anything, Independents slightly favor Trump in the polling.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The R/D split is pretty inelastic. 90% of Republicans don't vote for Democrats and 90% Democrats don't vote for Republicans as a general rule if either of the partisans make it to the voting booth.

Donald Trump is the kind of candidate who could cause significant Republicans to either cross aisles or stay home.  The disdain for him among old-line Republicans is palpable.

[ProudModerate2]

The R/D split is pretty inelastic. 90% of Republicans don't vote for Democrats and 90% Democrats don't vote for Republicans as a general rule if either of the partisans make it to the voting booth.

Donald Trump is the kind of candidate who could cause significant Republicans to either cross aisles or stay home.  The disdain for him among old-line Republicans is palpable.

Yes, exactly.
There was a recent poll released just last week, which showed a very large (unprecedented) amount of Republicans that said under no circumstance will they support trump in November.
This is NOT a normal race for Republicans this year ..... it is not just a "90% of Republicans will vote for the R candidate." No way, Jose.

[Virginiá]

You are being knee-jerk reactionary. At the end of the day, fundamentally Trump or Hillary! for that matter is no different than any other generic R or generic D candidate.

Trump is not even remotely the same as a generic R candidate. No matter how many times you say this, it will never be true. Not even close. I don't even know how you're coming to that conclusion.

Right now Hillary! is basically at the Obama 2012 final numbers with generally Registered Voter (not likely voter) polls and you are declaring the race over in June. It clearly is not. It's the ebb or flow of this particular cycle. It will flow back to Trump at some point as the parties unify.

So the unify argument is basically going to persist until election day? "Any day now the GOP will unify and Trump will make gains... Any day now..."

With Trump being the way he is, the party may never fully unify. I don't know why you are assuming this will happen. Just because it usually happens does not mean it always happens. Given the current trends of Trump's behavior, he will more likely than not blow most of the chances he gets to make up lost ground. He just had a whole month to ratchet up fundraising and his campaign and he did nothing but alienate even more voters and make himself look really bad. And on that - no Generic R would do such a thing.

The R/D split is pretty inelastic. 90% of Republicans don't vote for Democrats and 90% Democrats don't vote for Republicans as a general rule if either of the partisans make it to the voting booth.

You realize it wasn't always like this, right? There are limits to that degree of partisanship. I'm not necessarily saying there will be mass crossovers, but it's not that unlikely given the current circumstances. Though I think GOP voters are probably more likely to just stay home, which is still damaging.

At the end of the day, who wins is generally determined by turnout (e.g. whether the electorate is even D/R (Bush 2004) vs. D+6 or D+7 (Obama 2008, 2012)). No one can say with any certainty what that number until the national polls start to tighten their LV screens after the conventions.

Sure. But right now, this race is not competitive. Trump is getting steamrolled and he's only helping Hillary by constantly saying bigoted or other offensive things.

Until Trump actually starts running a competent campaign and gets control of his offensive, impulsive nature, there is no reason to think he can turn this around. Just because the race comes down to a R v D does not mean it will always be competitive. Unfortunately for the GOP, Trump shows no signs of being able to win. All your arguments are based on hypotheticals, or you know, "when this happens, it'll all turn around for him...", when the data for over a year suggests he will lose.

So yeah, nope, not buying it.

[ProudModerate2]

You are being knee-jerk reactionary. At the end of the day, fundamentally Trump or Hillary! for that matter is no different than any other generic R or generic D candidate.

Trump is not even remotely the same as a generic R candidate. No matter how many times you say this, it will never be true. Not even close. I don't even know how you're coming to that conclusion.

It's just pure denial and deflection (from Seriously?).

[Seriously?]

You are being knee-jerk reactionary. At the end of the day, fundamentally Trump or Hillary! for that matter is no different than any other generic R or generic D candidate.

Trump is not even remotely the same as a generic R candidate. No matter how many times you say this, it will never be true. Not even close. I don't even know how you're coming to that conclusion.

It's just pure denial and deflection (from Seriously?).

Was the sky falling two weeks ago when Hillary! was losing to Trump on Atlas? Of course it was.

It was OMG! is Hillary! going to recover? Of course she did.

There are almost five months until the election. A five-point lead on either side, heck even a double-digit lead on either side is not insurmountable at this point in the cycle. Talk to me in late October, it's a different story. But the key state races remain competitive and these national polls don't even employ a LV screen right now.

I just find the level of the Trump is eeeeevil, so he can't win by you red avatars on here as laughable. The same was probably being said of Romney, McCain, Bush, etc. etc. etc. Get past the conventions into the general in mid-September and if the trend remains to be pushing away from Trump, I'll be the first (non-Hillary/Johnson) blue avatar to admit that it looks troubling. But for now, ummmm.... no.

[dspNY]

Unless Clinton is indicted, he's pretty close to finished and that's not where things normally stand this far out in an election