Is Donald Trump already finished?

[TDAS04]

I wish.

He's not completely finished, even if a Trump victory is unlikely.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Seriously?

I know you hate Donald Trump for whatever reason, MohamedChalid, but five months is an eternity in politics. Hillary! would not be finished right now if she were 5 points down.

How was President Dukakis' first term? President Romney for that matter? And that second Jimmy Carter term?

I swear it's a thread a day on Atlas with this same nonsense.

If Vice President Bush went on record as needing to stop "all those Blacks who are rapists and criminals, like Willie Horton... some of them are good people, of course," made disparaging remarks about Dukakis's eyebrows and Greek heritage, said that NATO was basically useless if the Warsaw Pact wasn't broken up by the end of his first term, called for the dismantling of the Soviet Union, called for a trade war with Japan, and the GOP was fighting to unbind his delegates at the convention, party leaders refused to endorse him, and he had no funding... then that would be an apt comparison.

Yeah, basically this. Seriously? you're acting like Trump is just another politician with standard, commonplace problems. Modern American politics has never experienced incompetence of this magnitude and he can't just fix it overnight. His campaign is not going to be able to catch up now as he is so far behind. And yes, ad campaigns do work, and they work especially well when there the person doesn't fight back. Hillary dominating the airwaves like this will affect him. He is not invincible, as his poll numbers show.

The least you could do is not act like everyone is dumb or unreasonable for thinking Trump's campaign is in serious trouble, because it is. You just can't (or won't) see it for god knows what reasons.

The Trump Deniers keep at it.  They won't stop until the inauguration; after all, maybe Faithless Electors will conspire to elect a Clinton/Romney fusion ticket.

Here is a candidate (Trump) who's only 5 points down to a candidate whose party's President is above water in approval polls, and who has confounded EVERYBODY to date by not just winning, but by having the opposition scratching their head as to what just happened, and we're saying he (Trump) can't win?  Granting that Trump is an underdog as of today, saying he "can't win" is, at a certain point, pure hubris worthy of the Jeb Bushes, Ted Cruzes, and such who, when asked if they would honor their pledge to support Trump is he became the party nominee in November, responded to the effect of "Donald Trump's not going to be the nominee!".  These hubris-filled gasbags have schooled America in the difference between a fact and a mere assertion.

Gerald Ford was further behind Carter than Trump.  Bush 41 was 33 points behind Clinton after Clinton was nominated and Perot dropped out (only to return later); he was 17 point behind Dukakis in the summer of 1988.  HHH seemed destined to be creamed by Nixon.  Indeed, in the case of HHH and Ford, they likely would have won the election if the campaign went on for 2 more weeks.  If you're telling me Trump's a lead pipe cinch to win, well . . . no.  But if you're counting out Trump AFTER ALL HE'S DONE TO DATE, going against the grain, being as unorthodox as can be, well . . . you're either not paying attention or you're in a special kind of denial.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

1). The money issue requires too much insider knowledge to evaluate. How much does a candidate need to spend in order to win? Didn't Trump win the primary despite spending less money than most? Didn't Jeb Bush spend 30-40 million in New Hampshire just to finish 4th place?

2). I agree that a divided party hurts him. People like Romney, McCain, Bush 43, Bush 41, and Paul Ryan are giving no support or lukewarm support.

3). Polls fluctuate, and we are 5 months away from election day, with debates, conventions, and rallies still waiting to happen.

4).  And Trump has just started to attack Hillary and expose all her failures and lies. Many things are still in the doubt: the emails, Benghazi, and other scandals. All these things have the potential to worsen her numbers even further.

This is desperation talking, not reason.

Trump Miller, or whatever alias he goes by this week, got billions in free media coverage. While spin will matter going into the fall, both he and Clinton will be getting tons of coverage. He needs enough money for organizing, messaging, GOTV (desperately) and ads in key areas. He doesn't have it, and doesn't look very likely to get as much as a "typical" candidate would. Worst case for him, Clinton successfully (and accurately) brands indelibly him as a blowhard bullying baby bursting with BS before the RNC.

The divided party, does indeed hurt. That wound could be deadly to his campaign all on its own. At best it "only" hurts him.

Only two candidates have won when they were as far down as the wanna-be orange Fuher is now. And I'd guess Truman and Bush had much better approval ratings.

If you think that regurgitating years of GOP criticism is going to prove decisive in Trump's favor, I've got some great Florida beachfront property you might be interested in.

Donald (the reality-show one, not the Disney one) is finished. The only thing that saves him is a complete collapse of Democratic/Clinton credibility. He's going to spend every night between now and November praying for the next 9/11 or a massive economic crash.

[ProudModerate2]

You are being knee-jerk reactionary. At the end of the day, fundamentally Trump or Hillary! for that matter is no different than any other generic R or generic D candidate.

Trump is not even remotely the same as a generic R candidate. No matter how many times you say this, it will never be true. Not even close. I don't even know how you're coming to that conclusion.

It's just pure denial and deflection (from Seriously?).

Was the sky falling two weeks ago when Hillary! was losing to Trump on Atlas? Of course it was.
It was OMG! is Hillary! going to recover? Of course she did.

There are almost five months until the election. A five-point lead on either side, heck even a double-digit lead on either side is not insurmountable at this point in the cycle. Talk to me in late October, it's a different story. But the key state races remain competitive and these national polls don't even employ a LV screen right now.

I just find the level of the Trump is eeeeevil, so he can't win by you red avatars on here as laughable. The same was probably being said of Romney, McCain, Bush, etc. etc. etc. Get past the conventions into the general in mid-September and if the trend remains to be pushing away from Trump, I'll be the first (non-Hillary/Johnson) blue avatar to admit that it looks troubling. But for now, ummmm.... no.

If you are talking about when trump barely lead (by approx 0.2%) over Hillary on the RCP average, I can tell you that I was not one who was saying that the sky was falling.
I am on record in that thread telling others, that this was just a trump-bump due to him passing the delegate nomination number, and Hillary not securing her side yet.
..... And I was right.

In addition, Hillary will still get additional bump in the numbers once Sanders completely concedes. So her gap in polls will probably increase an additional 3 to 5 percentage points.

Basically, Virginia is saying that this is not anywhere near normal for the Republican presumptive nominee compared to prior elections. The GOP is divided. Current and previous high ranking Republicans in office (including prior Pub Presidents!) do not agree/support/will vote for trump.
Some Republicans and most of the electorate agree that trump is acting like a clown, a child, and/or someone severely sick with narcissism. A candidate (trump) is labeled by MANY in the electorate as bigoted, racist and Hitler-ish.
The list goes on, and on, and on.
All THIS LEVEL of rhetoric, is UNPRECENDENTED for a candidate (of either party)..... And it's ALL NEGATIVE !
So in conclusion, Virginia is right to say that you can't compare trump or his campaign to a generic R candidate, or prior election.

[Meclazine for Israel]

He is not favourite, but he is not finished.

It will be interesting to see what happens with his campaign finances.

You have two competing factors.

1. Trump's ego at one of the most critical public moment of his life.

2  trumps tight-fisted Scottish background.

He wont sell a Trump Tower to pay for this.

His assets are tied to his sense of self, and he will go to the electorate for fund raising together with private wealthy individuals.

He wont be entirely self funded.

I am not writing him off just yet.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

He is not favourite, but he is not finished.

It will be interesting to see what happens with his campaign finances.

You have two competing factors.

1. Trump's ego at one of the most critical public moment of his life.

2  trumps tight-fisted Scottish background.

He wont sell a Trump Tower to pay for this.

His assets are tied to his sense of self, and he will go to the electorate for fund raising together with private wealthy individuals.

He wont be entirely self funded.

I am not writing him off just yet.

You're skipping over that he's likely broke/bankrupt or otherwise overstating his real net worth by two orders of magnitude.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

I don't think he is Likley to win, but can not be counted out this early. I would give Trump a 25-30 percent chance at winning.

[Seriously?]

He is not favourite, but he is not finished.

It will be interesting to see what happens with his campaign finances.

You have two competing factors.

1. Trump's ego at one of the most critical public moment of his life.

2  trumps tight-fisted Scottish background.

He wont sell a Trump Tower to pay for this.

His assets are tied to his sense of self, and he will go to the electorate for fund raising together with private wealthy individuals.

He wont be entirely self funded.

I am not writing him off just yet.

You're skipping over that he's likely broke/bankrupt or otherwise overstating his real net worth by two orders of magnitude.

Evidence of that?

[Seriously?]

You are being knee-jerk reactionary. At the end of the day, fundamentally Trump or Hillary! for that matter is no different than any other generic R or generic D candidate.

Trump is not even remotely the same as a generic R candidate. No matter how many times you say this, it will never be true. Not even close. I don't even know how you're coming to that conclusion.

It's just pure denial and deflection (from Seriously?).

Was the sky falling two weeks ago when Hillary! was losing to Trump on Atlas? Of course it was.
It was OMG! is Hillary! going to recover? Of course she did.

There are almost five months until the election. A five-point lead on either side, heck even a double-digit lead on either side is not insurmountable at this point in the cycle. Talk to me in late October, it's a different story. But the key state races remain competitive and these national polls don't even employ a LV screen right now.

I just find the level of the Trump is eeeeevil, so he can't win by you red avatars on here as laughable. The same was probably being said of Romney, McCain, Bush, etc. etc. etc. Get past the conventions into the general in mid-September and if the trend remains to be pushing away from Trump, I'll be the first (non-Hillary/Johnson) blue avatar to admit that it looks troubling. But for now, ummmm.... no.

If you are talking about when trump barely lead (by approx 0.2%) over Hillary on the RCP average, I can tell you that I was not one who was saying that the sky was falling.
I am on record in that thread telling others, that this was just a trump-bump due to him passing the delegate nomination number, and Hillary not securing her side yet.
..... And I was right.

In addition, Hillary will still get additional bump in the numbers once Sanders completely concedes. So her gap in polls will probably increase an additional 3 to 5 percentage points.

Basically, Virginia is saying that this is not anywhere near normal for the Republican presumptive nominee compared to prior elections. The GOP is divided. Current and previous high ranking Republicans in office (including prior Pub Presidents!) do not agree/support/will vote for trump.
Some Republicans and most of the electorate agree that trump is acting like a clown, a child, and/or someone severely sick with narcissism. A candidate (trump) is labeled by MANY in the electorate as bigoted, racist and Hitler-ish.
The list goes on, and on, and on.
All THIS LEVEL of rhetoric, is UNPRECENDENTED for a candidate (of either party)..... And it's ALL NEGATIVE !
So in conclusion, Virginia is right to say that you can't compare trump or his campaign to a generic R candidate, or prior election.

Of course you can. The driving fundamentals will be the same at the end of the day. Who gets out more voters. The only way the Democrats win is if they turn out more Democrats than Republicans, probably in the D+2, D+3 range. The only way the Republicans win is if they get closer to a D+1 or even electorate.

The question presented is whether Trump is "finished." The leftists and RINO elite have been declaring "peak Trump" for the past year now. They have been proven wrong time and time again.

You are obviously glossing over the negatives your own candidate has, much more than a traditional generic D as well, but that's an aside. Republicans loathe Hillary!, so much so that they can be realistically rallied together on the Trump side, even if some of them have to hold their noses.

With that said, however, you can not predict either the future or whether the Republican elite (as opposed to the Republican base) will unify a month down the road in Cleveland. As such, you can not write off Trump (or generic R) at this point in time. It is way too premature.

[Hermit For Peace]

I just read that Trump and the RNC just raised $11 million since Tuesday. That's really good. If they can keep it up maybe they can raise a bunch more. And maybe Trump's campaign is going to get its act together. Maybe he's not actually finished before he's even begun.

Frankly, I'd rather see him try and whip up a good campaign that the RNC can be proud of. I'm kind of feeling sorry for the people who want to vote for him, but have been having a hard time because of all the buffoonery Trump has been engaging in.

It would be nice if he could get serious, and I'm serious about that. I'd rather Trump start towing the line, walking the straight and narrow, and actually try to be Presidential. Would it kill him?

[Gustaf]

Of course he isn't. But it certainly looks pretty bad for him.

[BlueSwan]

It would be nice if he could get serious, and I'm serious about that. I'd rather Trump start towing the line, walking the straight and narrow, and actually try to be Presidential. Would it kill him?

Why? If he suceeded and won the election he would go back to his bufoonish ways and be a serious danger to world security in the white house?

[BlueSwan]

Anyway, it is most definitely NOT over. Never overestimate the intelligence of the voting public. I currently give Trump a 20-25% chance of winning in november and that is way too high for comfort. The number really ought to be 0%.

[Sir Mohamed]

I just read that Trump and the RNC just raised $11 million since Tuesday. That's really good. If they can keep it up maybe they can raise a bunch more. And maybe Trump's campaign is going to get its act together. Maybe he's not actually finished before he's even begun.

Frankly, I'd rather see him try and whip up a good campaign that the RNC can be proud of. I'm kind of feeling sorry for the people who want to vote for him, but have been having a hard time because of all the buffoonery Trump has been engaging in.

It would be nice if he could get serious, and I'm serious about that. I'd rather Trump start towing the line, walking the straight and narrow, and actually try to be Presidential. Would it kill him?

It wouldn’t kill him, but he just doesn’t like it. He’s not that kind of a guy who appears presidential. It’s not his thing. He just likes to be a bully.

[Hermit For Peace]

It would be nice if he could get serious, and I'm serious about that. I'd rather Trump start towing the line, walking the straight and narrow, and actually try to be Presidential. Would it kill him?

Why? If he suceeded and won the election he would go back to his bufoonish ways and be a serious danger to world security in the white house?

I don't think he would win the election, but I would appreciate watching a more serious campaign fight going on the next several months between him and Hillary. I feel as though Trump is wasting everyone's time with his antics, and that's a major "no no" for me. I enjoy watching Hillary and listening to her, but Trump turns it all into a circus. Sad.

[Hermit For Peace]

I just read that Trump and the RNC just raised $11 million since Tuesday. That's really good. If they can keep it up maybe they can raise a bunch more. And maybe Trump's campaign is going to get its act together. Maybe he's not actually finished before he's even begun.

Frankly, I'd rather see him try and whip up a good campaign that the RNC can be proud of. I'm kind of feeling sorry for the people who want to vote for him, but have been having a hard time because of all the buffoonery Trump has been engaging in.

It would be nice if he could get serious, and I'm serious about that. I'd rather Trump start towing the line, walking the straight and narrow, and actually try to be Presidential. Would it kill him?

It wouldn’t kill him, but he just doesn’t like it. He’s not that kind of a guy who appears presidential. It’s not his thing. He just likes to be a bully.

And people are eating up his garbage. That's also sad.

[Sir Mohamed]

I just read that Trump and the RNC just raised $11 million since Tuesday. That's really good. If they can keep it up maybe they can raise a bunch more. And maybe Trump's campaign is going to get its act together. Maybe he's not actually finished before he's even begun.

Frankly, I'd rather see him try and whip up a good campaign that the RNC can be proud of. I'm kind of feeling sorry for the people who want to vote for him, but have been having a hard time because of all the buffoonery Trump has been engaging in.

It would be nice if he could get serious, and I'm serious about that. I'd rather Trump start towing the line, walking the straight and narrow, and actually try to be Presidential. Would it kill him?

It wouldn’t kill him, but he just doesn’t like it. He’s not that kind of a guy who appears presidential. It’s not his thing. He just likes to be a bully.

And people are eating up his garbage. That's also sad.

Just a minority of people. Voters will reject this narcisisst fraud on election day.

[IceSpear]

You are being knee-jerk reactionary. At the end of the day, fundamentally Trump or Hillary! for that matter is no different than any other generic R or generic D candidate.

Trump is not even remotely the same as a generic R candidate. No matter how many times you say this, it will never be true. Not even close. I don't even know how you're coming to that conclusion.

It's just pure denial and deflection (from Seriously?).

Was the sky falling two weeks ago when Hillary! was losing to Trump on Atlas? Of course it was.

It was OMG! is Hillary! going to recover? Of course she did.

There are almost five months until the election. A five-point lead on either side, heck even a double-digit lead on either side is not insurmountable at this point in the cycle. Talk to me in late October, it's a different story. But the key state races remain competitive and these national polls don't even employ a LV screen right now.

I just find the level of the Trump is eeeeevil, so he can't win by you red avatars on here as laughable. The same was probably being said of Romney, McCain, Bush, etc. etc. etc. Get past the conventions into the general in mid-September and if the trend remains to be pushing away from Trump, I'll be the first (non-Hillary/Johnson) blue avatar to admit that it looks troubling. But for now, ummmm.... no.

As much as I usually disagree with you...thank you for being the voice of reason in this thread.

It's f'ing June and the American public has the attention span of a goldfish. He's guaranteed 45% of the vote just for showing up. Of course he's not finished.

And yes, this forum was freaking out and thought Hillary was doomed a month ago when Trump was getting his post clinch bounce. So please...just stop these wild overreactions.

[wolfsblood07]

Now that Trump is the nominee I hope he wins so bad.  Seeing him take the oath of office in January would be the most satisfying thing to happen since the Reagan/Bush era ended.  The only thing Obama did right was the killing of Bin Laden and other al Qaeda terrorists.  I have to give him credit for his successes in that area.

[Bojack Horseman]

I'd compare it to last year's Louisiana governor's race. Brexit is the equivalent to the Kentucky governor fiasco, when the Edwards camp (Representative of Hillary) ran the brutal "Prostitutes over Patriots" ad to make certain Vitter (Representative of Trump) was completely electorally dead. Just because of his 70% unfavorable rating doesn't mean he's dead yet. We must step on the gas pedal in terms of attacking Donald Trump and race to the finish instead of assuming that it's over and coasting on in, giving him the chance to catch up.

[StateBoiler]

I'm not willing to say his goose is cooked just yet, as stranger things have happened, but I don't really see a realistic way he can win at this point.

Right.

That's why the delegates need to dump him.

[ElectionsGuy]

Being down 5 points with little infrastructure and money is 'finished'? Really? If I were a Democrat I would be worried that he's doing as well as he is and why Clinton isn't doing better.

[Gass3268]

Unsure but leaning no.

[Hermit For Peace]

Even if he doesn't win the election, I mean he's not finished by any means. The guy has a lot going for him already with his empire. I doubt he'll give it two days worth of reflection if he loses the Presidency. He'll just go home to one of his mansions, go golfing on one of his golf courses, go yachting on his yacht, or go jetting somewhere on his personal airliner.

And start another TV show.

I mean, we all should have it so hard.

[President Johnson]

TRUMP is anything but finished. He has just started. Big Don is tied in most swing states although he had some bad weeks. I expect this numbers to go up soon. And keep in mind, there's still an ongoing investigation above Hilldog's head. If she's indicted, Big Don is likely unstopable.