Of all the states that have a Republican governor now....
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  Of all the states that have a Republican governor now....
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Poll
Question: ...which state is hardest for a strong Democratic gubernatorial candidate to win even under ideal circumstances?
#1
Alabama
 
#2
Arizona
 
#3
Arkansas
 
#4
Florida
 
#5
Georgia
 
#6
Idaho
 
#7
Illinois
 
#8
Indiana
 
#9
Iowa
 
#10
Kansas
 
#11
Kentucky
 
#12
Maine
 
#13
Maryland
 
#14
Massachussets
 
#15
Michigan
 
#16
Mississippi
 
#17
Nebraska
 
#18
Nevada
 
#19
New Jersey
 
#20
New Mexico
 
#21
North Carolina
 
#22
North Dakota
 
#23
Ohio
 
#24
Oklahoma
 
#25
South Carolina
 
#26
South Dakota
 
#27
Tennessee
 
#28
Texas
 
#29
Utah
 
#30
Wisconsin
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 61

Author Topic: Of all the states that have a Republican governor now....  (Read 2105 times)
BuckeyeNut
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« on: June 22, 2016, 10:24:48 PM »
« edited: June 24, 2016, 05:08:52 PM by BuckeyeNut »

Inverse of TN volunteer’s thread.

Edit: My deepest apologies to the state of Wyoming, which seems to have been cut off as option no. 31.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2016, 10:34:16 PM »

Wyoming?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2016, 10:40:52 PM »

Alabama.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #3 on: June 22, 2016, 10:58:13 PM »

Utah
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« Reply #4 on: June 22, 2016, 11:01:56 PM »

Alabama or Tennessee.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #5 on: June 22, 2016, 11:49:34 PM »

Albama.

At least in Mississippi they could recruit Jim Hood or Gene Taylor(if the latter was willing to switch again).
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JMT
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« Reply #6 on: June 22, 2016, 11:57:32 PM »


Yeah Wyoming isn't listed as an option in the poll, but that's what I would answer to this question.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #7 on: June 23, 2016, 12:34:57 AM »

I could have sworn I put it in, but the poll-maker may have actually cut me off...
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #8 on: June 23, 2016, 12:42:23 AM »

Probably Alabama. It's very polarized, has elections during midterm years, and most of the Blue Dogs from the past decades are either dead or Republicans by now.
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cxs018
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« Reply #9 on: June 23, 2016, 10:34:46 AM »

Wyoming. Alabama has a small group of Democrats. Wyoming just has Republicans as far as the eye can see.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #10 on: June 23, 2016, 11:08:02 AM »

Probably Alabama. It's very polarized, has elections during midterm years, and most of the Blue Dogs from the past decades are either dead or Republicans by now.

WY, UT and ID seem to be the most Republican in the *true* sense of the word.  There's literally no historical attachment to Democrats or large minority presences for a Democratic floor.  I'd go with one of them.
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NerdyBohemian
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« Reply #11 on: June 23, 2016, 12:12:30 PM »

Kansas. They couldn't even elect a Democrat for governor in ideal conditions.
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #12 on: June 23, 2016, 01:20:19 PM »

Alabama or Wyoming (although the latter is not listed, for some reason). I'm guessing Gary Trauner would be the best bet for Democrats in Wyoming, and we could always run Jim Matheson in Utah for top-tier recruits, but both would be uphill battles. I can't think of a Democrat who could win a statewide election in Alabama until the state becomes majority black, and that doesn't seem to be happening for quite some time now.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #13 on: June 23, 2016, 01:58:07 PM »


Meh.

Maybe TN.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #14 on: June 23, 2016, 01:59:19 PM »


I would have before 2014...
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Santander
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« Reply #15 on: June 23, 2016, 02:01:11 PM »

Florida. Cheesy
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Zioneer
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« Reply #16 on: June 23, 2016, 03:53:52 PM »

Assuming no Jim Matheson or Doug Owens, Utah is probably the hardest. We're extremely Republican at the Gubernatorial level, even with Trump at the top of the ticket, and incumbent Gary Herbert is very, very popular.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #17 on: June 23, 2016, 04:53:19 PM »

Guys, Wyoming had a Democratic Governor from 2003 - 2011 and in fact from 1975 - now, the governors mansion has been Democratic more often than Republican.

Further, many Southern states didn't actually flip solidly to Republicans at the state level until mostly 2010+, though a number of them did transition earlier (GA and FL, for example). However, right now it's difficult to say whether a Democrat could win in these kinds of states anytime in the near future. I'm inclined to say that it would take unique circumstances, à la Louisiana.

Just wait until we get another relatively unpopular Republican president (or one who is unpopular during the midterm elections). I'm sure we'll see a number of surprises.
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« Reply #18 on: June 23, 2016, 05:28:28 PM »

Wyoming. Alabama has a small group of Democrats. Wyoming just has Republicans as far as the eye can see.

Yet it reelected its last Democratic governor with 70% of the vote.  Somehow.  Pretty remarkable for a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats and Independents combined.

(Voted Idaho, FWIW.)
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Zioneer
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« Reply #19 on: June 24, 2016, 02:21:47 AM »

Utah hasn't had a Democratic governor since 1984 (that is, the last time a Dem governor was elected was 1980), hasn't had a Democratic senator since 1976 in one seat and 1950 in the other seat. I think we win in terms of ridiculous amounts of Republican partisanship.
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Intell
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« Reply #20 on: June 24, 2016, 03:26:36 AM »

Currently, Texas.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #21 on: June 24, 2016, 02:32:18 PM »

Kansas. They couldn't even elect a Democrat for governor in ideal conditions.

That wasn't ideal conditions. The massive Republican wave nationally saved Brownback's ass. Even in a neutral year he would've lost.

I'll say Alabama. Not only is the black population much smaller than Mississippi in a state where race essentially determines your party affiliation (the GOP dream on a national stage), they don't even have any serious politicians (like Childers, Hood, etc.). I mean seriously, look at the last few Democratic nominees here.

2016 Senate: Ron Crumpton, a random marijuana activist
2014 Senate: Literally could not find a single candidate
2014 Governor: Parker Griffith, a joke who switched parties about 5 times
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Badger
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« Reply #22 on: June 24, 2016, 02:53:02 PM »

Kansas. They couldn't even elect a Democrat for governor in ideal conditions.

That wasn't ideal conditions. The massive Republican wave nationally saved Brownback's ass. Even in a neutral year he would've lost.

I'll say Alabama. Not only is the black population much smaller than Mississippi in a state where race essentially determines your party affiliation (the GOP dream on a national stage), they don't even have any serious politicians (like Childers, Hood, etc.). I mean seriously, look at the last few Democratic nominees here.

2016 Senate: Ron Crumpton, a random marijuana activist
2014 Senate: Literally could not find a single candidate
2014 Governor: Parker Griffith, a joke who switched parties about 5 times

Probably Alabama for this reason, though arguably just as applicable to TN, particularly with the lack of bench.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #23 on: June 24, 2016, 02:56:32 PM »

Also, if Democrats couldn't even beat Roy Moore of all people, they're not winning anything outside of dead girl/live boy scenarios.
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« Reply #24 on: June 24, 2016, 09:46:20 PM »

Also, if Democrats couldn't even beat Roy Moore of all people, they're not winning anything outside of dead girl/live boy scenarios.

Roy Moore has never been on a general election ballot for anything other than judge, though he has run unsuccessfully for the republican nomination for governor twice. Judicial races aren't exactly a good way to read a state's opinion on a political party since a lot of voters are making selections with very little thought, perhaps completely randomly, when they get that far down the ballot. It doesn't help that in judicial races, even if partisan affiliation is listed on the ballot, it is generally considered unprofessional to campaign on one's partisan affiliation for an office where you are supposed to be impartial.
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