Trump's best areas of Manhattan in the GE
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  Trump's best areas of Manhattan in the GE
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« on: June 22, 2016, 10:45:42 PM »

What neighborhoods of Manhattan (New York County) would be Donald Trump's best showing in the general election in New York?
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cinyc
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« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2016, 11:40:25 PM »

Trump doesn't have much of a chance of winning anywhere in Manhattan, save a few sparsely populated precincts with few voters and the Trump Tower precinct.  Neighborhood-wise, he'll probably do best on the Upper East Side, but probably will run behind Romney and other presidential-level Republicans, who lost there.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #2 on: June 23, 2016, 04:10:58 AM »

To put it in perspective, more people voted in Wisconsin for Cruz than for Trump in all of New York state. He's not going to win a precinct in Manhattan.
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HAnnA MArin County
semocrat08
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« Reply #3 on: June 23, 2016, 05:38:43 AM »

The southwestern part of the Upper East Side would be my guess, but I could see Hillary sweeping every precinct in Manhattan.
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LLR
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« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2016, 06:58:39 AM »

As a resident of the Upper East Side, I can safely say that he'll do worse than Romney here. It still might be his best area (possibly some random area in midtown otherwise)
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Redban
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« Reply #5 on: June 23, 2016, 07:47:55 AM »
« Edited: June 23, 2016, 07:52:02 AM by Redban »

To put it in perspective, more people voted in Wisconsin for Cruz than for Trump in all of New York state. He's not going to win a precinct in Manhattan.

And more people in Pennsylvania voted for Trump than for Cruz in all of Wisconsin. Is Trump going to blow-out Hillary in Pennsylvania??

P.S. - New York had a closed primary while Wisconsin had an open primary. Plus, Wisconsin allowed same-day voter registration; New York required the voter to register months beforehand.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #6 on: June 23, 2016, 10:31:56 AM »

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PA population = 12.8 million
WI population = 5.7 million.

Trump, 902k in PA
Cruz, 533k in WI

When adjusted for state populations:

Trump 902k
Cruz 1197k

Cruz > Trump.

And, last I checked WI wasn't Cruz's home state, either.
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cinyc
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« Reply #7 on: June 23, 2016, 06:21:35 PM »

The southwestern part of the Upper East Side would be my guess, but could see Hillary sweeping every precinct in Manhattan.

Trump actually performed better in the (relatively) poorer parts of the Upper East Side east of Second Avenue. i.e. Yorkville.  Kasich won most of the richer precincts closer to Central Park.  How this translates to the general election is anyone's guess - there are probably more Republicans in the Southwestern part of the UES closer to Central Park, but they're not exactly Trump Republicans.  Romney couldn't even win a populated precinct on the UES.  Trump won't come close.

As I said before, the only Manhattan precincts that Trump has a chance of winning are the precinct that includes Trump Tower (which, IIRC, was a tie in 2012), and one or two very sparsely populated precincts where you don't get a representative sample of Manhattan's population.
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Santander
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« Reply #8 on: June 23, 2016, 06:33:31 PM »

As a resident of the Upper East Side, I can safely say that he'll do worse than Romney here. It still might be his best area (possibly some random area in midtown otherwise)
As a former UES resident, I concur.
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