Un-skewed economic data
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  Un-skewed economic data
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Author Topic: Un-skewed economic data  (Read 1007 times)
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Adam T
Junior Chimp
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« on: June 23, 2016, 03:32:22 AM »

Cheesy

http://www.shadowstats.com/

Have you ever wondered why the CPI, GDP and employment numbers run counter to your personal and business experiences? The problem lies in biased and often-manipulated government reporting.

It's time to debunk the 'debunkers.'
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: June 26, 2016, 03:19:37 AM »

Please no.
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jaichind
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« Reply #2 on: June 26, 2016, 09:34:40 AM »

My own personal experience is the opposite.  Looking at my household spending over the last decade, of which I pretty much track every dollar, since I got married I would say my personal CPI is lower than the official CPI and much closer to Chained CPI.  I think the main factor here is the composition of spending any one household is likely to experience.   If a household has heavy medical or educational spending concentration over the last decade they will experience higher personal CPI than the government figures.  If a household has heavy spending concentration in food or durable (especially electronic ones) then they will fact a personal CPI lower than what the government figures might contain.   
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Beet
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« Reply #3 on: June 26, 2016, 03:41:57 PM »

This site has been around since at least 2009. Its statistics are bunk, but there's some truth to the notion that excluding the cost of owned housing from official CPI artificially depresses it.
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ag
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« Reply #4 on: June 26, 2016, 05:42:15 PM »

t excluding the cost of owned housing from official CPI artificially depresses it.

That may be true. But there is no good way of putting in owned housing. I am not well read on the literature, but I remember going to a seminar or two on the issue. Apparently, there are many ways of doing it, and all of them are wrong Smiley

And, then, in any case, many people (I mean, economists) claim that CPI is overestimating the true inflation, by not accounting well for technological improvements. If definition of CPI is touched, chances are more people will argue that it should be done in such a way that published inflation numbers will be lower, not higher.

I would argue in this case that CPI is measuring CPI. Whether it is "true" inflation or not is an impossible question, because there is no "true" inflation that can be represented by a single number. The reason we care about CPI is that it has been measured for a long time, giving us possibilities for intertemporal comparisons: if CPI is up, inflation is up. Absolute reported number should not be taken as seriously.

Obviously, for different people/industries that "true" inflation is different. Ideally, things like pensions would be adjusted using not CPI, but some version of it, that takes into account spending patterns of retirees. However, creating such an index would imply opportunities for tinkering with it - and governments would have all incentives to tinker it down. We are safer using a well-established series, like CPI.
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All Along The Watchtower
Progressive Realist
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« Reply #5 on: June 26, 2016, 06:59:22 PM »

ayy lmao
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they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« Reply #6 on: June 27, 2016, 12:13:52 AM »

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