Brexit's effect on US General Election

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Define "successful".  If the Brexit vote is for leave, but the leaving is disastrous, it could hurt Trump.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Brexit won't create a recession in the US. The UK is screwed obviously.

[Higgs]

Well, they did it.

[cinyc]

The Brexit probably will have little direct effect on the U.S. election, but should serve as a wake up call for those who think Hillary Clinton is inevitable and going to win easily in November.  Trump is trying to harness some of the same forces in the U.S. that the Leave campaign did in Britain, particularly on putting America first and immigration policy.  Whether it will work here is an open question, but is a question that should not be ignored.

[ProgCon]

Can we actually imagine a world where at the end of this decade Boris Johnson is Prime Minister of the UK, referendums are being held or have been held for Scotland and possibly Northern Ireland to exit the United Kingdom (thereby essentially ending the country as we have known it for so long), the UK out of the European Union, possibly other referendums in other member nations to follow their lead, Donald Trump as President of the United States, serious consideration of abandoning or dramatically transforming NATO and international trade agreements, and perhaps even Le Pen as President of France and Geert Wilders as Prime Minister of Holland? None of these scenarios are entirely outside the realm of possibility at this point.

[Ljube]

Can we actually imagine a world where at the end of this decade Boris Johnson is Prime Minister of the UK, referendums are being held or have been held for Scotland and possibly Northern Ireland to exit the United Kingdom (thereby essentially ending the country as we have known it for so long), the UK out of the European Union, possibly other referendums in other member nations to follow their lead, Donald Trump as President of the United States, serious consideration of abandoning or dramatically transforming NATO and international trade agreements, and perhaps even Le Pen as President of France and Geert Wilders as Prime Minister of Holland? None of these scenarios are entirely outside the realm of possibility at this point.

I can imagine all of that happening by the end of the year.

[tmthforu94]

Hopefully Texas doesn't get any ideas from this. The road to victory for Republicans significantly decreases without Texas in the picture.

[Santander]

Breitbart will try as hard as it can to make this a thing here, but it won't happen.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Brexit would indirectly help Trump if it caused a recession, but otherwise wouldn't have much of an effect.

[BuckeyeNut]

Brexit, no. Brexit's ramifications?  yes.

[ag]

It will help Trump. There will be nasty financial turbulence for quite a while, and that will help Trump.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

It will help Trump. There will be nasty financial turbulence for quite a while, and that will help Trump.

Not if it's mostly isolated to the UK/Europe. It'll be a spectacle to behold that casts real aspersions on empty Trumpist nationalism stateside.

[Dr. Arch]

Things are getting pretty wild. The British PM resigned shortly after the winner of the referendum was declared: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/david-cameron-resigns-after-uk-votes-to-leave-european-union?CMP=fb_gu

Instability is the name of the game in 2016, and I fear the gamble will not pay off.

[egalitt]

Brexit will have no effect on the UK itself to say nothing of the USA.
The ruling class is against the UK exit from EU,  and they will continue doing what they think is in their interests. Democracy is an imitation and if you still believe in it you are naive people.
Obama was against Brexit urging Britons to vote against it during his visit to the UK. Trump backed Brexit and he has a good opportunity to say that he he had been right and Obama wrong, all his foreign policy has been a failure.

[egalitt]

Britons voted for Brexit because they are frightened by illegal immigration. To stop illegal immigration is a cornerstone in Trump's campaign.   

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I think a Brexit would embolden nationalist sentiment.  Trump's tweet on a successful Brexit vote would look something like this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I will now accept my accolades.

Well, kind of.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/746289394231828480

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/746289768707698688

[skoods]

The irony of a country that colonized the world now complaining about outsiders entering their country.

[Lachi]

Will Trump meet Boris Johnson?

Someone asked Trump that on Twitter, Trump said he didn't even know who he is.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No impact on prediction markets.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

No impact on prediction markets.

Prediction Markets are useless as proven by the fact that jeb was at 40% through November

[Sir Mohamed]

Let’s dispel once and for all the fiction that the Brexit affects the presidential election.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No impact on prediction markets.

Prediction Markets are useless as proven by the fact that jeb was at 40% through November

That's because his campaign was literally spending campaign funds on them to boost his numbers. Seriously, that actually happened.

[Human]

The Brexit won't create a recession in the US. The UK is screwed obviously.

I don't think it will cause a recession in our country, but I do think that it will cause an economic slowdown, which should mildly benefit Donald Trump.

[Mr. Morden]

No impact on prediction markets.

Prediction Markets are useless as proven by the fact that jeb was at 40% through November

I think you mean Rubio:

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 7.5
Biden 1.2
O’Malley 1.0

Republicans
Rubio 41.8
Trump 21.7
Cruz 17.4
Bush 10.5
Christie 4.2
Carson 3.6
Huckabee 1.1
Romney 1.0
Fiorina 0.7
Kasich 0.6

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

No impact on prediction markets.

Prediction Markets are useless as proven by the fact that jeb was at 40% through November

I think you mean Rubio:

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 7.5
Biden 1.2
O’Malley 1.0

Republicans
Rubio 41.8
Trump 21.7
Cruz 17.4
Bush 10.5
Christie 4.2
Carson 3.6
Huckabee 1.1
Romney 1.0
Fiorina 0.7
Kasich 0.6

Correct. No difference between the two losers