Brexit's effect on US General Election

[Mehmentum]

The idea that any U.S. state would secede is laughable. 

62% of Scotts consider themselves Scottish and not British.

How many Texans do you think consider themselves Texan but not American?  I can't imagine that number is even 1%.

[Mehmentum]

One thing I would definitely take away from this is that we need to believe most of the weird polls we are seeing.  The Brexit polling had a narrow Leave lead for a long time, then a tie at the very end.  No one wanted to believe it and the prediction markets had 4:1 Remain right up to the start of the vote counting.  And there were a whole host of traditionally left wing constituencies that voted overwhelmingly to leave and traditionally right wing constituencies that voted overwhelmingly to stay.

So I think Trump really is in a statistical tie in UT, OH, and PA simultaneously right now, and Clinton really is leading in AZ and way up in FL.

"Polling:  It turns out its better than your 'gut'."